Virginia Oaks Picks

We’re heading out to Colonial Downs this week for their first-ever Kentucky Oaks prep race. This is not your typical 1 1/16 route, as this is run around one turn. The combination of the track configuration, a field that lacks gate speed, and the absence of a true standout filly makes for a wide-open betting race. The scratch of the morning line favorite, the #3 Gowells Delight, will result in shorter prices on the other runners, but I will identify four fillies that I view as your main players in here. Although this field has not reached the caliber of speed figures run by most of the fillies in the top group on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard, some of them are lightly raced and have every opportunity to step up to that level on Saturday.

Pace: Expect the #6 You’ll Be Back to be up on the lead or close to it. She has the best early speed of the group and should be dictating the pace up front. The #1 Icona Mama should be forwardly placed sending from the rail as well. The #4 Anonima is a Kenny McPeek trainee who we last saw regress running without Lasix for the first time in the Honeybee (G3) when she broke 10 lengths off the leader and was unable to make up much ground in a race that played out in the favor of runners up on the front end. Before that, we saw her put together back-to-back wins sitting a stalking trip and I expect her to try to replicate that on Saturday. She broke her maiden against Take Charge Milady, who we saw come back to win the Martha Washington. Her career-best Beyer Speed figure of a 78 fits nicely with this group, especially after the scratch of her stablemate. I’d imagine that Brian Hernandez Jr. will take the mount on her on Saturday now that Gowells Delight is out, and we all know who he piloted to victory in last year’s Kentucky Oaks. I see her either sitting off a horse like the #6 You’ll Be Back or being on the pace with her, and it potentially setting up for a new face on the Kentucky Oaks trail who will be able to sit right off of them and make one explosive run.

Top Pick: Your new morning line favorite, the #8 Fondly (7/2), a Graham Motion trainee who impressively won on debut. She tackled a few major obstacles that displayed professionalism and gave hope for her future. She was able to get 7F which is a difficult distance to get first time out, and she broke inwardly from the rail and got taken back around the turn after coming up too close to the filly in front of her. Once she was in a clear spot and switched her lead, she covered a lot of ground and flew by the two horses in front of her to win by 4 lengths. She looks to be a decent-sized filly with a big stride and it’s positive to see that one of the horses she beat, Hey Cookie, won the next time out and improved her Beyer Speed Figure by 10 points. Fondly is a daughter of Upstart and a ½ to Peter Pan (G3) winner Antiquarian, so we know the distance will be no issue. She also attracted jockey Irad Ortiz to take the mount for the first time.

Underneath: As aforementioned, #4 Anonima’s (6/1) speed will get her into a good position and you know that she can get the distance. Throwing out her Honeybee (G3) effort, this filly is moving in the right direction and her best race could be good enough to win here. I landed on Anonima as my second choice, with the #6 You’ll Be Back (9/2) in third as their speed should give them a good setup and an advantage over a field that lacks it. The #7 Girl Math (5-1) is an intriguing entry that I put in fourth as she still has some questions to answer, but I also see the potential of her improving now switching back to the dirt. She did break her maiden at Turfway, but the numbers she ran there are in line with the numbers she ran on dirt. Brisset is 7 for 22 with runners switching from synthetic to dirt over the last five years (32%), and the influence of McKinzie suggests this one may take a step up after already having a decent foundation on the dirt.

Reach out on @nyrabets to let us know who you’re playing on top in the Virginia Oaks. If you view this as a wide-open race, who do you see as most likely to take a step up on Saturday that puts them in the mix with top fillies like Quietside and Good Cheer?