Virginia Derby Picks

Pace: The pace scenario for the Virginia Derby is intriguing for two reasons. First, the track configuration at Colonial Downs means this is a one-turn race, which is quite unusual for a nine-furlong contest. Outside of the Saudi Cup (G1), we rarely see one-turn nine-furlong races. Second, trainer Brad Cox announced that #2 John Hancock (3/1) will be scratched and routed to the Louisiana Derby (G2). As a result, expect #3 American Promise (12/1) to be the predominant inside speed option with new jockey Nik Juarez aboard who should get this horse out near the front. The main speed is to the outside starting with #6 Getaway Car (9/5) for trainer Bob Baffert, but to his outside, he has some company in the form of #7 Rapture (5/1) with jockey Flavien Prat on the mount and that horse is likely content to stalk the pace but should be glued to the flank of Getaway Car most of the trip. Meanwhile, #8 Authentic Gallop (10/1) also has good early speed and will be part of the early vanguard as they work their way over throughout the backstretch. There is a strong possibility that Getaway Car could shake loose up front, but expect a host of challengers pressing him, which should lead to an honest pace.

#7 Rapture (5/1) – Trainer Brad Cox has had an interesting road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) this year. While he has a deep bench of contenders, he also does not seem to have one horse that he loves and is pushing to the front of the class. John Hancock appears to have been elevated to be his #1 contender and while his victory in the Sam F. Davis was flattered by Owen Almighty’s recent win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), horses like Patch Adams and Tappan Street have been fine, but nothing more. Even Flood Zone, who won the Gotham (G3) earlier this month, is being routed toward the UAE Derby (G2), which feels like a consolation prize rather than a prep race. All to say, Rapture suddenly finds himself in a position where if he makes a big enough statement on Saturday, he could get fast-tracked to the Blue Grass (G1) or maybe the Lexington (G3), the latter of which would likely relegate him to the Preakness (G1). However, jockey Flavien Prat takes the mounts, and the horse has a perfect running style as he likes to sit just off the pace and could easily track the early speed down the backstretch before making his move at the top of the homestretch. While his last victory came with Lasix, it was still a visually impressive effort breaking from an outside post position and drawing off from the field by over six lengths. While the horse’s sales price was a relatively modest $300,000, he is bred for the Classic distance as he was sired by Uncle Mo and out of a Bernardini mare, so I have no concerns about the nine-furlong distance. You will not get the morning line price of 5/1 due to the scratch of his stablemate John Hancock, but I do think he will represent a nice alternative to Getaway Car who could go off as the odds-on favorite. Rapture has been training for Cox in South Florida and series of five-furlong works in leading up to this race, so his fitness and foundation should be set.

#4 Omaha Omaha (10/1) – The Virginia-bred for trainer Michael Gorham is coming home and could make a splash at a price. The late-running son of Audible broke his maiden and won a first-level optional claiming race in the Mid-Atlantic before stepping up to hit the board in the Jerome Stakes and Withers Stakes while accumulating points toward the Kentucky Derby (G1). The biggest issue this horse has is he drops so far back early that he gives himself too much to do coming for home. The horse he reminds me of is Crupi who was on the Kentucky Derby Trail as a maiden a few years ago and always ran hard but would lose all shot of winning at the break. However, the track configuration and potential pace dynamics make his running style much more appealing in this spot as he should get ample pace and can use his stamina to start picking off tired horses in the homestretch. Note the fractions he got in his last two stakes attempts where he ran behind 1:13.1 pace to the six-furlong mark and in the Withers going nine furlongs he got a very pedestrian 49.1 second half-mile pace. Those numbers should be significantly lower on Saturday as they are likely to go 47 and change to the half and 1:11 and change to the six-furlong mark. That should give Omaha Omaha the type of pace scenario that makes deep closers more effective in one turn races. Remember Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro in the Saudi Cup in 2024? I do not want to get anything twisted as I am hardly comparing Omaha Omaha to those two horses but simply want to remind you of how one-turn nine-furlong races can often lead to a hot pace that sets up well for closers. Of all the closers in the race, I like him the most as he has should the ability to pass even when the pace scenario does not go his way.

#6 Getaway Car (9/5) – It always felt likely that trainer Bob Baffert would enter one of his fleet of Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls in this year’s Virginia Derby to continuing to mend fences with Churchill Downs after a 3+ year suspension from the track and their signature race. Churchill Downs Incorporated now owns Colonial Downs and moved their annual Virginia Derby/Oaks Day from the fall to the spring and moved the races from turf to dirt to make them 50-point prep races for the Kentucky Derby. All of that said, it appeared the plan was to send stablemate Gaming to this race, but that backfired when he spiked a fever and as a result the recent Sunland Derby winner, Getaway Car, gets entered here instead and picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. It makes sense to move off regular jockey Juan Hernandez as he has several Baffert runners to choose from regarding who his mount will be come the first Saturday in May. Instead, this gives Baffert (and Ortiz Jr.) an opportunity to see what they can do together with this son of Curlin. The pedigree up top is all distance, but Getaway Car’s mare (Surrender) was a stakes-winning sprinter, so you get the mixture of speed and stamina. While his victory last time out was his first in six months, his recent efforts are more impressive than it might first appear. In two of those races, he finished second to Citizen Bull and Journalism who most have as two of the top five contenders for the Kentucky Derby, so losing to them was no blemish on his resume. Meanwhile, his start in between those runner-up efforts was a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). There is also the matter of experience as he has now run four straight races going 8.5 furlongs and is battle-tested around two turns as we saw in his stretch duel last time out with Caldera, a very promising runner for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. All of Getaway Car’s victories have come up front, which is a little bit of a red flag, which would have been made redder if #2 John Hancock (3/1) were running, but he isn’t. While #3 American Promise (12/1) has legitimate speed, I suspected Ortiz Jr. will be aggressive out of the gate and get an ideal spot up front. Many of the other speed horses do not NEED the lead, but it is notable the number of nine-furlong gate-to-wire winners at Colonial Downs is 6% lower than the national average suggesting track configuration matters.

#3 American Promise (12/1) – The D. Wayne Lukas trainee is coming off consecutive efforts where he simply did not get the ride he needs to be successful, so I have to expect new jockey Nik Juarez has simply instructions, which is to go from the start as the horse broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion. There are some serious expectations around this colt who was a $750,000 purchase at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023 as a yearling. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify out of a Tapit mare is bred to want more ground and has showed the necessary speed to get out up front. It is interesting that Getaway Car will once again have to contend with a D. Wayne Lukas speed horse as he battled Lukas runner Caldera last time out in the Sunland Derby. There has been some “back to the future” this Derby prep season as we have regularly seen the image of Baffert and Lukas, two icons of the sport who squared off in the Triple Crown starting in the 1990s, standing side-by-side as their horses battle in the stretch. Lukas runs his horses often and there is no doubt American Promise will be fit and has the foundation to handle the distance. I worry the long backstretch will wear him out late and he could fade as he has done a few times before, but if the track holds speed on Saturday, then I think you have a chance at seeing this horse contend at an honest price. He’s faced good competition even during his time as a maiden, so this field is nothing out of the ordinary and if Juarez can get him up front, crazier things have happened. Whether he can ever run back to that 95 Beyer Speed Figure is the big question, but we know he has that sort of race in him, so at price are you willing to find out whether he can do it again? I would say 8/1 or higher is a fair price to see.