Victory Ride (G3) Picks

Pace Scenario

It should be no surprise that there will be plenty of early speed in this year’s renewal of the Victory Ride (G3), which features one of the most exciting fields of the 3-year-old female sprint division we have seen this year. There are two horses, #3 Iron Orchard and #5 Tommy Jo, who were both Grade 1-winning juveniles last year and are coming back from long layoffs. There is a strong possibility that either or both will feel fresh and want to flash early foot, as they were both fast starters as two-year-olds. After those two, you can expect #3 Carmel Coast, #7 Mythical, and #10 Goodall to be forwardly placed as well, with Carmel Coast likely being the speed of the speed. While the track has played well to speed, too much early pressure could easily set up for horses that can rate just off the pace or come running from the clouds. That said, there are some serious horses in this race who have the foundation to support fast fractions while traveling 6 ½ furlongs.

Analysis

This is the sort of race that makes Saratoga special, as it’s a Grade 3 race taking place on a Friday that features two former Grade 1 winners and eight total stakes winners. I have looked at this race plenty and keep coming back to #10 Goodall (3-1) as the horse that offers the best value at her morning-line price. The daughter of Yaupon was bought by Spendthrift Farm, who stands last year’s #1 first-crop sire and who has continued to have success with his second crop that features last week’s Sanford (G3) winner Booked. As for Goodall, she did not hit the track until this year when she started running down at Fair Grounds, and she won at second asking in gate-to-wire fashion. From there, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen brought her up to Oaklawn Park, where she dominated the field in the Purple Martin Stakes. However, she faltered in her next start when she stretched out to seven furlongs in the Eight Belles (G2) at Churchill Downs, though she was sitting behind a few more horses than she preferred. The distance of seven furlongs could also have been an issue, as her pedigree does suggest shorter sprints will be better. Yaupon’s progeny only have an average winning distance of 6.2 furlongs, and both of Goodall’s half-siblings’ victories were at five furlongs. Still, she bounced back in a big way at Saratoga last month during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival when she easily won the Jersey Girl Stakes despite rider Flavien Prat losing his crop at the top of the stretch. She still pulled away from Carmel Coast and Mythical with relative ease. As for Friday, she should sit the ideal trip from her outside post position by tracking off the early speed. I also give her extra marks for handling this track before, as she’s settled into Saratoga having worked out at The Spa since her victory last time out.

I do not want to put too much emphasis on last month’s Jersey Girl Stakes, but I do think the runner-up to Goodall, #3 Carmel Coast (8-1), is an honest price for a filly that has done very little wrong to this point in her career. The daughter of Omaha Beach, who also stands at Spendthrift Farm, was an impressive debut winner at Saratoga last year when she blitzed a field of fellow juveniles going 6 ½ furlongs that featured three next-out winners. She could not build off that performance as she faded when stretching out to a mile in her next start in the Frizette (G1), but trainer Whit Beckman took a patient approach and gave her time to grow. She came back from a six-month layoff to win a solid $125,000 optional claimer at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day before stepping back into stakes company last time out in the Jersey Girl. She is likely going to be the speed of the speed on Friday with jockey Tyler Gaffalione trying to control things up front. The fact that she already has a victory going this distance over the track at Saratoga without the assistance of Lasix is a huge plus. She will be third back in the form cycle and should continue to move forward. I love to see the slow maintenance works that Beckman has put her through in the morning, which shows me he has her exactly where he wants her going into this race.

It’s possible the 6 ½ furlongs might be too much for some of the speed horses to sustain, in which case I looked over the viable closers, which is what drew me to #9 A Fine Chardonnay (12-1) for trainer Ian Wilkes. I’d prefer it if Wilkes brought his turf marathon superstar Burnham Square up to Saratoga this summer, but I’ll gladly take his impressive Maclean’s Music filly as an alternative. She had an impressive start to her career, breaking her maiden in her debut at Churchill Downs before winning the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland in her second start over eventual Acorn (G1) winner Counting Stars and Eight Belles (G2) winner On Time Girl. She went from last to first to win that day, but seemed to take a step back in her next start at Churchill Downs. There, she was a distant third, and Wilkes gave her some time off before returning to the track as a three-year-old. After a four-month layoff, she finished third in the Any Limit Stakes before getting back to her winning ways at Keeneland as she took the Beaumont (G2) going seven furlongs over a track. However, the reason you are getting 12-1 on her is because she finished a dull fifth last time out in the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at Churchill Downs behind the likes of Explora and On Time Girl. She never really seemed to get going that day, and I do not think the inside post did her any favors either. However, I am encouraged that Wilkes spotted her here coming off that performance, and she should have plenty of pace to run at on Friday afternoon. She will need to revert to her best form to win, but the combination of price and pace makes her an appealing longshot play who has plenty of foundation and back class from her juvenile campaign.

Finally, we get to #5 Tommy Jo (7-2), who was quite the phenomenon at Saratoga last year as a two-year-old, where she won her first two career starts by over 10 combined lengths, including the Spinaway (G1). However, things got tougher for this daughter of Into Mischief for Spendthrift Farms when she stretched out to two turns. While she technically won the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, she was put up via a very questionable disqualification and was easily bested to the wire by Percy’s Bar before putting in another poor two-turn effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She had some time off to recuperate and has been training steadily since mid-May for her eventual return. I love that they are cutting her back to one turn, as it reminds me of what we commonly see on the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) trail when a trainer has a horse that might be able to get shorter two-turn races based on class or precocity, but who really becomes elite once they get turned back to one-turn sprints. When she was at her best last year, she possessed a versatile running style as she could sit just off the pace before drawing off from the field. Obviously, coming back from such an extensive layoff is a big question, but the fact that she is back racing is a positive sign, and I will be eager to see how she looks in the paddock. Her two races at Saratoga are fast enough on the figures to compete with this group, but whether she is able to run back to, or improve upon, her career-best is a big question mark, and I don’t love balancing that with her 7-2 morning line price as a win bet, but she is a horse I will use underneath in different wagers.