UAE Derby Picks

Background: In recent years we have seen some fine horses come out of the UAE Derby (G2) including Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) runner-up Derma Sotogake as well as last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) third-place finisher Forever Young who recently won the Saudi Cup (G1) and will be looking to cement his status as the best horse in the world by winning the Dubai World Cup (G1) later in the card. This year’s renewal might not have the future star power due to the fact Saudi Derby (G3) winner Golden Vekoma is skipping the race, but you still have a solid group of horses led by Brad Cox’s #4 Flood Zone (9/5) who is coming off a victory in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. However, we will have a slew of challengers from the Middle East and Japan who are looking to punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby while running 1 3/16 miles, which is tied with the Louisiana Derby (G2) for the longest Kentucky Derby prep race.

Post Position vs. Saddlecloth Numbers: The never-ending confusion for North American racing fans is why on God’s green earth horses racing internationally has post positions that are different than the numbers on their saddlecloth. Alas, the rest of the world must deal with us measuring things in feet, yards, and miles, so I guess we must deal with this. In any event, saddlecloth numbers are determined by alphabetical order and then post positions are drawn separately later. Below you will see the designation of their saddlecloth number with their post position in parentheses so that you are aware of who you are looking at during the post parade while also being aware of where they’ll be coming out when they break the gate.

#6 (6) Heart of Honor (4/1) – The Jamie Osborne trainee is a late-running type who should appreciate stretching out as evidenced by his narrow defeat in the Al Bastakiya Stakes last time out going this distance. He is a UAE-based runner and his best performance to date might have come in the UAE 2000 Guineas where he came charging from the back of the field to finish second to Golden Vekoma who flattered his form by coming back to easily win the Saudi Derby (G3) in his next start. The son of Honor A.P. has never finished out of the exacta in five career starts but only has two victories, which could be viewed as a red flag. However, he represents solid value given the fact the morning line favorite Flood Zone is shipping internationally for the first time and the second choice Shin Emperor is trying dirt for only the second time and running over a mile for the first time. In Heart of Honor, you have a horse who has run the distance before, is familiar with the track, and has been incredibly consistent throughout his career. The 4/1 price on the morning line feels fair and so long as there is sufficient pace, he will be able to start picking horses off in the stretch as they tire.

#4 (5) Flood Zone (9/5) – The son of Frosted who had been recently transferred to the Brad Cox barn having started his career running for Victor Barboza Jr. blitzed the field and won the Gotham (G3) last time out at odds of 17/1. It was a dominating, if not slightly surprising, effort given the horse has broken his maiden against Florida-bred competition sprinting 6 ½ furlongs in his previous start. However, his jockey that day, Reylu Gutierrez, took the initiative to get the horse up on the lead and he never looked back. On Saturday, Cox’s #1 jockey, Florent Geroux, will make the international flight to ride Flood Zone for the first time and while his 98 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) from the Gotham (G3) is impressive, there are still some questions. He has never gone two turns, though his pedigree of being out of a Curlin mare and sired by the son of Tapit would make you think he could handle added distance. There is also the matter of handling the international trip, which is always a question mark until you see a horse do it, particularly a horse who is only making his fourth career start. The horse possesses good early speed and should be near the front of the pack, but the possibility of other pace pressure with added distance does make taking him at a short price a slightly riskier proposition. There is also the matter of the decision to enter him in this race. He had already qualified for the Kentucky Derby (G1) by winning the Gotham (G3) and securing 50 points, but then opts to go overseas for the final prep race, which just seems odd given the fact no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby after running in UAE with Forever Young having the best finish in last year’s race…and Flood Zone is not Forever Young.

#8 (7) Shin Forever (3/1) – One of the top Japanese hopefuls, Shin Forever ran an admirable second to Golden Vekoma in the Saudi Derby (G3) last time out. Prior to that start, the son of Complexity had only run on turf where he broke his maiden in debut but has not won since. It is possible that he finally discovered his proper surface given that Complexity offspring in North America have not run well on the grass as they are 1/44 (2.3%) as opposed to having a record of 37/206 (18%) on dirt. However, another feature we have seen from the Complexity progeny in North America is that they have not stretched out particularly well as their average winning distance is 5.9 furlongs and he has only produced 21 dirt route entries compared to his 185 dirt sprint entries. Therefore, I have some questions whether Shin Forever will appreciate the added distance over the dirt, though I do believe he should appreciate the surface. Trainer Hideyuki Mori might not have the name recognition among North American racing fans that fellow Japanese trainer Yoshito Yahagi has, but rest assured, he is a world class trainer who knows how to get his horses ready for big spots. Shin Forever earned a 101 TimeForm Rating from the Saudi Derby (G3), which is superior to the 93 TimeForm Rating that Heart of Honor earned the last two times out, but the questions on distance and the fact he still only possesses a win over maidens makes it difficult to take him at too short of a price.

#2 (1) Don in the Mood (10/1) – If there is a longshot to consider, Don in the Mood might be it. The son of Asia Express is shipping out of Japan for this race having last finished third in the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo where he earned a 98 TimeForm Rating. What made the effort more impressive was he only lost by two lengths to Luxor Café who appears to be the new “it” horse in Japan having romped in his subsequent start and is the official Japanese qualifier for the Kentucky Derby. The other positive for Don in the Mood is that he owns a victory going 1 1/8 miles two back against allowance company. His only poor effort was over a muddy track, which can be excused. Look for him to display good tactical speed as he should be able to easily stalk the pace and provide some pressure on Flood Zone. He did flatten out a bit in that Hyacinth Stakes going a mile last time out, but my thought was that he would appreciate sitting closer to the pace in longer races where the opening fractions are not as intense. If he can sit off the pace, he has a real chance to make a move at the top of the stretch and finish strong