MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEKRace Date: 09/27/2025

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Picks

Belmont At The Big A, Race 5, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), Post Time-2:37 PM ET

3
Rebel's Romance
5
Far Bridge
1
El Cordobes

Analysis: There are few more accomplished and cooler horses than #3 Rebel’s Romance (even) as the two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner makes his final prep in his goal to win the race for a third time in four years. Aside from his success in the Breeders’ Cup, he has won graded or group stage stakes in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, which is a stunning accomplishment. The seven-year-old son of Dubawi continues to carry the flag for trainer Charlie Appleby and Godolphin but will be trying something new as he does his final Breeders’ Cup prep in the United States rather than running in the Preis von Europa (G1) in Germany, which he did in 2022 and 2024. Additionally, regularly jockey William Buick is not coming over for the mount on Rebel’s Romance or Appleby’s other runner El Cordobes, which could be a bit of a red flag that this race is simply a tune-up. However, veteran jockey Frankie Dettori takes over the mount for a horse that is 12-17 at the 1 ½ mile distance and has a dazzling turn of foot. He has been in outstanding form in his recent starts winning the Preis von Berlin (G1), Hardwicke (G2) during Royal Ascot, and the Yorkshire Cup (G2). His only loss in the last four races was a third-place finish behind fellow superstars Calandagan and Kalpana. He will need to show he can handle the turf at Aqueduct, where he finished fourth in this race two years ago, but that was over a yielding turf course, and he had fallen out of form during the 2023 season. Credit Appleby for getting him back on track. He has won 10 of 13 races since that setback in New York and looks very difficult in this spot given the short field and the fact he should be sitting relatively close to a modest pace. Dettori can ensure he gets the ideal trip and should have no problem dealing with traffic down the stretch.

I expect #5 Far Bridge (4/1) to come back with a much better effort than what we saw from him in the Sword Dancer (G1). The son of English Channel had been going along well prior to that sixth-place finish, but it exposed the fact he often benefited from ideal trips. He should get one of those again on Saturday at #2 Redistricting is likely the predominant speed in the race and jockey Joel Rosario will let Far Bridge settle just behind the pacesetter throughout most of the race. It’s a turf marathon in New York, so expect a slower pace than traffic in Manhattan during rush hour, but if Rosario lets the horse get into a nice rhythm then he should fire a big effort. I do not believe he is good enough to win this race and I actually find my third choice is the more likely winner between the two horses I have underneath, but I believe Far Bridge is going to run well and should be a horse you include in exactas whether you are playing with or against Rebel’s Romance.

The horse that I believe has the best chance to beat Rebel’s Romance is #1 El Cordobes (3/1) who is the other Charlie Appleby and Godolphin runner. Again, it is noteworthy that jockey William Buick opted to stay overseas than come to ride either horse, which leads Hall of Famer John Velazquez to get aboard for the first time. The winner of the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga is a relatively new face on the scene but is loaded with potential and appears to be just starting to reach his full promise. The four-year-old son of Frankel put together a nice effort in the Princess of Wales’s (G2) at Newmarket in July where he beat Wimbledon Hawkeye, who subsequently came over to the United States and won the Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs. What makes El Cordobes so dangerous is that he is not a deep closer and can sit a more mid-pack trip while saving all the ground around three turns and remaining covered up. It is an ideal trip for a European runner and if he does not have to move forward much from the Sword Dancer (G1) to win Saturday. The jockey situation is what makes this race more difficult to read as Flavien Prat rode the horse last time out while William Buick opted to ride Nations Pride in that race. Now Buick is nowhere to be found, Dettori is riding Rebel’s Romance, Prat has decided to forgo riding any of the Godolphin horses to stay with Chad Brown’s entry Redistricting, and Johnny V is on El Cordobes.