Travers Stakes (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Whenever Napoleon Solo is entered in a race, you know there will be pace, as he is the fastest horse by a healthy margin in this year’s field. Additionally, he picks up the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who is the best at not only getting horses on the lead but ensuring they get comfortable throughout the race. Expect Brad Cox’s new face, Leading Change, to sit close to the pace in a pocket trip, as he has good early speed and is positioned toward the inside rail. There is not much blistering speed after those two, but you can expect to see Chad Brown’s up-and-comer Sea Strike tracking off the pace from the outside, while both Baby Vino and Silent Tactic are going to be forwardly placed to save ground. The good news for the two of them is that they have the entire homestretch to work their way over into a good position before entering the first turn. The pace should be honest enough to ensure the usual suspects of Golden Tempo and Renegade will be able to make their closing kick around the far turn and down the stretch.

Analysis

All year, I have been waiting for a “new shooter” to emerge in the three-year-old crop who I believed could challenge the upper echelon of this year’s group, and I believe I found him in #2 Leading Change (12-1) for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Gun Runner has the sort of pedigree that makes you believe he will continue to get better as he stretches out, as he is the half-sibling to 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Shedaresthedevil, also trained by Cox, who went on to win three additional Grade 1s throughout her illustrious career. Cox also trained the half-sibling Star of Wonder, who won six of eight starts and recently shipped to Saudi Arabia, where he became a stakes winner. Now you infuse the distance influence and class of Gun Runner into a female family that produces dirt route winners. All that said, Leading Change took time to get to the track for Wathnan Racing, as he did not debut until June of his three-year-old season at Churchill Downs when he easily dispatched older company while breaking his maiden by over six lengths. Cox then immediately stepped him up against graded stakes company in the Indiana Derby (G3) for his second start. It was only the third time in the last five years that Cox had stepped a debut maiden-winning three-year-old into graded stakes company in his next start, with the previous two being Tappan Street and Just a Touch, who both ran second in their races. It was notable that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., fresh off a five-day suspension, opted to return to racing on Saturday, July 11 in Shelbyville, Indiana to ride Leading Change rather than return to Saratoga where he keeps his tack in the summer. The son of Gun Runner pressed the pace and held off Our Moneyman down the stretch to take the Indiana Derby (G3). Shortly after the race, Cox was asked about future plans, and the Travers (G1) was already in the mix, which is notable since Cox and Wathnan Racing already had a top Travers (G1) contender in the form of Commandment, who had just come off a very close runner-up finish to Golden Tempo in the Belmont Stakes (G1). However, on Saturday, Commandment will be in Cox’s barn in Saratoga preparing for September’s Pennsylvania Derby (G1) while his up-and-coming stablemate is running in the marquee race of the summer. For all the backstory, the horse still needs to get it done on the track, and I believe he has the right running style to do it with Napoleon Solo going out up front early and Leading Change sitting a comfortable trip on the rail in the pocket. Gone, however, is jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who is still sidelined with an injury, though that would have always been the case as he was committed to ride fellow Travers (G1) entrant Renegade for Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole. In his place steps Manny Franco, who is Cox’s #1 call in New York during the winter and has been riding as well as anyone in the country throughout the Saratoga meet, having captured multiple Grade 1s this month, most recently upsetting the Alabama (G1) last Saturday. The horse will need to continue to move forward from his 95 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), but that is baked into the morning line price. I have always liked lightly raced horses with ascending speed figures who have yet to run their best race while they are stepping up in class because that’s when you can get them at a price, and Leading Change checks the boxes in terms of connections, pedigree, and running style to make me believe he has a huge shot to upset the Travers (G1) on Saturday.

#9 Golden Tempo (5-2) is slowly becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of horses in this three-year-old crop as the son of Curlin gets no respect. After winning the 152nd Kentucky Derby (G1), he and trainer Cherie DeVaux showed up to the Belmont Stakes (G1) and were the 6/1 FOURTH CHOICE in the race behind Renegade, Chief Wallabee, and Emerging Market. That, my friends, is laughable. Yes, he has a late-running style that typically gives him little margin for error and might be best if he gets some pace in front of him, but in that respect, he is no different than former Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Sierra Leone, who people could not wait to burn their money betting here in Saratoga. After putting away the competition again in the Belmont Stakes (G1), Golden Tempo returned to Kentucky, but spiked a small fever, which kept him out of training for a couple of weeks, which, in turn, prevented him from running in the Jim Dandy (G2). He returned to Saratoga several weeks ago and has been training well on a track where he has had success. While his deep-closing running style will also detract in the minds of some, he has gotten faster in every single career start, and after firing off a 47.2-second four-furlong workout on August 15, there is every reason to suspect that he is sitting on another massive race. In a sport where most horses are bred to run a mile or perhaps nine furlongs, he is uniquely bred to get the 1 ¼ mile distance, which is not something everyone else in the field can say. His sire, Curlin, has 42 graded stakes winners going nine furlongs or longer on dirt, which is the best of any sire in the field. Golden Tempo’s dam, Carrumba, was a graded stakes winner going nine furlongs on the dirt. They bred distance over distance and got a horse that is slow out of the blocks, but who loves every inch of ground behind 1 1/8 miles, which is when most horses hit a wall. Jockey Jose Ortiz has been dominating the Saratoga meet as he will be breaking nearly every record this summer and can put an exclamation point on it with a victory in the Travers (G1). The post position is irrelevant as Golden Tempo will drop out of the back of the field, get over to the rail, and then wait to make his move on the turn and tip out at the top of the stretch. When you see the black Phipps Stable silks rolling down the stretch, it can be an intimidating sight, and while I am taking a shot against him as my top selection, I believe you would be crazy to fade him entirely in this race given his pedigree and success.

A horse that is a problem in this race is #3 Napoleon Solo (8-1), who represents the best speed in the field and has every opportunity to take them gate-to-wire. The Preakness Stakes (G1) winner is coming off a frustrating runner-up finish in the Haskell (G1) last time out when it appeared he had the race won, but jockey Paco Lopez allowed for longshot Baby Vino to come up the rail, which might be why Lopez is no longer aboard the son of Liam’s Map. In his place steps Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, which is a massive upgrade, and Velazquez also suits Napoleon Solo’s running style. There is no mystery as to how the race will play out for him, as the instructions from trainer Chad Summers will be to send him to the front and see how far he can take them. Where Velazquez separates himself from so many in his profession is that he is remarkable at getting horses up front and then getting them to relax and into a nice rhythm while avoiding speed duels. Nobody in this field is as fast as Napoleon Solo, so if he breaks cleanly, he will be in the clear and dictating the tempo of the race. Whether he can get the 1 ¼ mile distance is a legitimate question, as very few Liam’s Maps get that distance on the dirt, as the Ohio-bred Who Dey is the only one of his top progeny to get that distance against stakes company, and those were state-restricted races. Still, when you have a speed horse with a great jockey aboard who is unlikely to face significant pace pressure, then you have a recipe for a gate-to-wire victory. Summers has been training the horse beautifully leading up to the race, as the horse is firing off bullet workouts in the morning with ease and looked stunning when I got a chance to see him paddock schooling last week. He has won over this track in his debut as a juvenile and is coming off a career-best 99 BSF, which is a point higher than the best figure Golden Tempo has ever run. I believe the horse is sitting on another big effort, and even if he does not win, he fights hard down to the end and should be a part of the action.

There are several other runners who you could make compelling cases for in this race, such as #4 The Puma (8-1), who is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Haskell (G1), which can be excused as it was his first race off a four-month layoff and he caught a miserably sloppy track as well. Prior to that, he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and was nosed out at the wire by Commandment in the Florida Derby (G1). Plus, he is sired by former Travers (G1) winner Essential Quality. You also must look at #10 Silent Tactic (10-1) for trainer Mark Casse as a horse that ran very well off a layoff in the Jim Dandy (G2) after dealing with foot issues that kept him out of the Kentucky Derby (G1). He showed good speed that day, but might be marooned in an outside post. He also has an intriguing pedigree, as his dam is sired by Gun Runner with the Tapit line up top. However, it is hard to discount #5 Renegade (3-1) for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole, who announced that jockey Tyler Gaffalione would be taking over the mount for the still-injured Irad Ortiz Jr. His victory last time out in the Jim Dandy (G2) was a thing of beauty and might have only been possible with Ortiz Jr. at the helm as he took the horse 11 lengths off the lead before timing a superb run late to catch Commandment at the wire. He was a neck away from winning the Kentucky Derby (G1), so we know he can get the distance, and Pletcher has repeatedly said the horse has grown significantly this summer. In the past, Pletcher would have to give him three weeks to rest after races to properly recover, but he has filled out, and as a result he has put in two workouts ahead of the Travers (G1) after running on August 1. That sort of work schedule would have been out of the question just a couple months ago. In some ways, it reminds me of the way Fierceness really blossomed physically after the Jim Dandy (G2) two years ago and showed up at the Travers (G1) looking bigger and more substantial. My only lingering concern with Renegade is the jockey change. He is a late-running horse who needs to have a perfectly timed ride, and while Gaffalione has experience on that, having ridden Sierra Leone early in his career, it still might be hard to handle with it being his first time on the horse.