Travers Stakes Picks

Analysis: A short field and a heavy favorite highlight this renewal of the Travers (G1), but there is still plenty of intrigue. In one corner stands Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), Fountain of Youth (G2), Jim Dandy (G2), and Street Sense (G3). In the other corner stands Magnitude, winner of the Risen Star (G2) and Iowa Derby. If the tale of the tape does not need quite equal that is simple because nobody’s resume in this three-year-old crop can hold a candle to Sovereignty’s accomplishments. The only one close is Journalism, and he decided to stay home in California to face older horses in next weekend’s Pacific Classic (G1) rather than face Sovereignty for a third time. However, Magnitude has something very few other horses in this crop possess, which is outstanding early speed going two turns as he wired the field in both of his stakes victories while being assigned impressive Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs). The question you have as a handicapper and bettor is whether Magnitude can get the distance and wire the field. If you think the answer is no, then Sovereignty is your choice. If you think the answer is yes, then you must decide at what price do you like Magnitude’s chances to do so.

For me, the answer to the above question is no. I believe Sovereignty is the best horse in his crop. He repeatedly bested Journalism and Baeza who are overwhelmingly considered the next two best horses in this generation and in the process started to show a new dimension to his running style. Earlier in his career, Sovereignty was a late-running closer who could be susceptible to slow fractions or the potential of a bad trip. However, in both the Belmont (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2), he got away in good order and closely tracked the early pace. This versatility makes him even more dangerous, particularly in a short field where he will be able to keep his main competition within a couple of lengths. He has remarkable closing speed and appears to appreciate every bit of ground as he has already won at 1 ¼ miles in his two biggest races of the year.

Trainer Bill Mott received some criticism for skipping the Preakness (G1) after Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby (G1) as it robbed fans of the possibility of a Triple Crown being on the line. However, if you remember Mott’s quotes from after the Kentucky Derby (G1), it was clear that the Travers (G1) was a significant goal (and reason) he skipped the Preakness (G1) as he wanted the horse to have a long three-year-old campaign that would not include long stretches of rest following a grueling Triple Crown run. Therefore, it is logical to believe that the Hall of Fame trainer will have his runner in peak condition for the Travers (G1) as this race has been a goal since even before the Run for the Roses. There has been plenty of talk of whether Sovereignty was “cranked” for the Jim Dandy (G2) as he bested Baeza by a length while being assigned a 104 BSF in a race where he was asked, but never seriously threatened by a very game Baeza. When handicappers say “cranked,” they are referring to the level of fitness. Of course, the horse is fit enough to run, but you do not want to get the horse to peak fitness for every race as it’s difficult to maintain. Anyone watching in the paddock, or on TV, could see that Sovereignty looked a bit different than he had in the Belmont (G1). He seemed to carry a little extra weight and was not as defined as normal, which was a topic of conversation I had with a renowned national horse racing analyst and former jockey just before the race. Despite not being in peak condition, the horse went out and disposed of the competition. On Saturday he will be in peak form, and I expect him to show the best version of himself like what he did in the Belmont (G1) over this same track going the same distance.

As for Magnitude, call me a doubter. The Steve Asmussen trainee popped onto the national radar when he wired the field in the Risen Star (G2) while being assigned an eye-popping 108 BSF, which was the highest figure any three-year-old had run to that point. However, within 36 hours of the race, Asmussen broke the news that the horse was off the Triple Crown trail due to a bone chip, and he faded out of mind as the world got treated to Sovereignty and Journalism in the Triple Crown races. However, going back to that Risen Star (G2) is helpful as it featured East Avenue, who had been the impressive two-year-old who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and was making his first start of the three-year-old season. His trainer, Brendan Walsh, decided to find out if the horse could rate off the pace, which allowed for Magnitude to get the easy lead. By the way, the answer to Walsh’s question was an emphatic no. The best horses he faced that day were Chunk of Gold who recently won the West Virginia Derby (G3) and East Avenue who came back to win the Matt Winn (G3). Therefore, it is fair to say that Magnitude was the best of a decent, but hardly overwhelming group of horses. When he finally made his return to the track in the Iowa Derby he faced off against the group of Itsmybirthday, Mister Omaha, Maverama, Mickswagger, and Authentic Gallop. Hardly the 1927 Yankees. But he beat them in convincing style, though I did not love the way he moved in the stretch and the fact jockey Ben Curtis kept shaking the reins on him and asking him for more rather than wrapping him up.

Asmussen immediately pointed him toward the Travers (G1) after that race, which is a move that should be commended as so many others have decided to run elsewhere. However, the 1 ¼ mile distance is what really throws me off. If this race were at 1 1/16 miles or even 1 1/8 miles, I could entertain the notion of an upset, but the Classic distance could be a bridge too far. His sire, Not This Time, is very good as a distance influence producing 21% winners, but Magnitude’s dam (Rockadelic) has produced four other foals who made it to the track and not one of them has managed a single victory (0-34 in total). Now, if you dig deeper in the female pedigree, you see you see the second dam Octave who won the CCA Oaks (G1) at the 1 ¼ mile distance, but we’ve not seen that stamina get passed along. I also do not love the work pattern for the horse. Asmussen horses do best when they are working fast and they seem preoccupied with building up foundation in this horse, which is understandable, but not what I like to see from this barn, particularly with a speed horse. The other issue that Magnitude faces is that it is not a foregone conclusion that he gets to the lead as Bracket Buster and Strategic Focus both could represent significant challenges in the early goings of the race, but the rail draw likely forces jockey Ben Curtis to send and allows his two primary early pace challengers to pester him to early fractions. Magnitude might be a different type of horse than Sovereignty is used to seeing, but what can’t be denied is that Sovereignty is definitely a different type of horse than Magnitude is used to seeing. This ain’t the Iowa Derby.

The more interesting horse to play underneath or as a potential upset challenge is Strategic Focus for trainer Chad Brown. The horse is lightly raced and has plenty of room to improve off his third-place effort in the Curlin Stakes where he made a winning move, but flattened out at the end to get caught by the duo of Chancer McPatrick and So Sandy. However, that was only his third career start and first time running off Lasix, so excuses can be made. Trainer Chad Brown just won the Whitney Stakes with Sierra Leone a few weeks ago and would love to notch a Travers victory in the same meet. He is putting blinkers on the horse, which should infuse some more speed, but also help this son of Gun Runner stay focused in the stretch. Strategic Focus has an outstanding pedigree for distance as well being out of a Curlin mare who also produced the filly Headline Number who recently won the Top Flight Invitational Stakes going 1 1/8 miles. Jockey Flavien Prat remains aboard and this is a horse that seems to have not yet reached his ceiling, plus he has the advantage of having run against older horses in his first two starts, which should help him in this spot against horses his own age. If you’re going to beat a horse like Sovereignty, it is likely the horse you don’t see coming that is going to do it that could take a massive jump up in a big race rather than one who will maintain their previous excellence when taking a significant step up in class.

How I’m playing it: If you fancy yourself as the clever type then you might be drawn to betting Magnitude, but even if I believed he would shake loose on the lead and get the distance, you will still have to consider swallowing the 2/1 morning line price. Count me among those that are skeptical this horse would win the race 33% of the time, which is what taking 2/1 odds on a horse means. You want to find a runner whose odds are equal to (or greater than) your opinion of their chances of winning the race. I think Sovereignty wins this race 80-85% of the time, so his morning line price of 2/5 (71%) is closely aligned with my overall opinion. When you have a heavy favorite, you either single or fade them in any pick sequence. I will be singling the most consistent horse in the three-year-old crop. If the Iowa Derby winner nabs me, I’ll tip my cap, but I cannot justify having two short prices, which would double the cost of my ticket and leave me open to the potential of getting stuck with an odd-on favorite winning. In vertical wagers, I am more interested in Strategic Focus at 6/1 and using him in an ice-cold exacta.