TP Track Stats Week Two
TURFWAY PARK TRACK STATS
Throughout the meet at Turfway Park, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Get the latest stats updated through 12/15/24.
WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?
Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the first week of the meet at Turfway Park. Obviously, as the number of races increases, so will the reliability of the statistical trends we see throughout the meet.
Post Time Favorite Analysis
Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 36.1% rate during the Turfway Park meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 52.8% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 22.2% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.
From a betting standpoint, doing a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $2.16 (+8.0% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 4 | 75.00% | 100.00% |
| 1/1 to 9/5 | 27 | 29.60% | 63.00% |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 34 | 38.20% | 58.80% |
| Higher than 3/1 | 7 | 28.60% | 71.40% |
Average Field Size – 10.78
Races by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 25.0%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 35.7%
- Claiming race favorites – 40.0%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 33.3%
- Allowance race favorites – 33.3%
- Stakes races favorites – 50.0%
Races by Surface and Distance
- Synthetic sprint favorites – 39.4%
- Synthetic route favorites – 33.3%
Winning Trips Analysis
Synthetic Sprint Winners (n=33)
- 27.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 60.6% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 12.1% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Synthetic Route Winners (n=39)
- 20.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 33.3% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 46.2% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Shipper Analysis
As the meet at Turfway Park attracts horses from around the Midwest region and throughout the country due to the surface. Many turf horses will ship into Turfway for the winter to run on the synthetic and you will see several top trainers such as Brad Cox and Brendan Walsh bring their “B-level” horses to run at the track. However, you also see synthetic shippers from Presque Isle or Woodbine come down as well. Track Stats will also be providing analysis of where winners during the Turfway Park meet ran their last race to better inform bettors of any shipping trends that might exist.
| Track of Previous Race | # of Wins |
|---|---|
| Churchill Downs | 20 |
| Horseshoe Indianapolis | 17 |
| Keeneland | 11 |
| Presque Isle | 4 |
| Laurel Park | 3 |
| Belterra Park | 2 |
| Debut | 2 |
| Del Mar | 2 |
| Hawthorne | 2 |
| Woodbine | 1 |
| Oaklawn Park | 1 |
| Fair Grounds | 1 |
| Delta Downs | 1 |
| Ellis Park | 1 |
| Turfway Park | 1 |
| Gulfstream Park | 1 |
| FanDuel Racing | 1 |
| Colonial Downs | 1 |
The big trend with shippers is how well those coming in from Horseshoe Indianapolis are performing with 17 wins. Shippers from there or Churchill Downs have won an astonishing 51% of the races at Turfway Park through the first two weeks. However, the Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers provide far better value as only 29% of those who won were post time favorites whereas 45% of Churchill Downs shippers who won were favored at post time.