Ticonderoga Stakes Picks

I will take a leap of faith and assume Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario will return to the tactics that have worked on #6 Silver Skillet (7/2) in the past. Somewhat inexplicably Rosario rated the horse to the back of the field last time out in the John Hettinger and the daughter of Liam’s Map never got a chance to run. It was the second straight race where she failed to hit the board as your post time favorite. However, Rosario has won gate-to-wire with her in the past, so he clearly knows she does her best running from a forward position. If he gets her up front, I think she is a hard horse to beat and, unlike the last few races, you will get a more honest price on her. At her best, she’s proved to be one of the top state-bred turf fillies and I am hoping Rosario gives her the opportunity to show her best on Sunday. I tend to like picking new faces in state-bred divisions and #5 Caldwell Loves Gold (5/1) is coming into the race having last run third in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3). The fact she is graded stakes placed against open company speaks for itself, but she has never run against her fellow NY-breds on the turf before. She is a two-time stakes winner over the main track, but trainer Brad Cox is switching her to the turf before the winter. Cox has won 71% of his stakes races over the last month and has jockey Manny Franco up on the mount. Those two are a formidable pair at Aqueduct when the weather gets cold as Franco is typically the #1 call for Cox’s best horses. The daughter of Goldencents has a versatile running style having gotten close to the pace and closed from further back. Look for this one to make her impression felt against a new group of foes. Meanwhile, #3 Whatlovelookslike (3/1) has been a veteran of this division for a few years. The daughter of English Channel has rarely run a bad race having finished in the money in 12-16 career efforts. However, she has not won since last August. That said, Sunday will be the third race back in the form cycle for her and she should get a more favorable pace setup than last time where she just came up short from nabbing the gate-to-wire winner. If she can continue to move forward from the 87 Beyer Speed Figure she earned last time out, she will be a tough horse to beat in this race, but having not won in so long is a concern for a horse that is likely to be your post time favorite. Finally, #1 Moonage Daydream (7/2) was the beneficiary of Rosario’s decision to rate Silver Skillet last time out as jockey Flavien Prat was able to carve out your typical glacial New York turf race fractions as they went 51.2 second to the half-mile mark. I have a hard time thinking the same thing will happen on Sunday and if this Jorge Abreu-trainee gets pressed, then it might be tough for her to take them all the way around like she did before. She will be able to save all the ground from her post position and retains top jockey Flavien Prat, which is always a plus. She’s run comparable Beyer Speed Figures in her last two efforts, but it is unclear whether that is her ceiling. She might need to take another step forward to win on Sunday.