NY Stallion Series Stakes Picks

Analysis: Going long on the turf for the New York Stallion Series race is the feature on Thursday and it features an interesting field. One thing that will always standout to me in these races is when a horse goes against open competition and drops back in against state-restricted company, which is the case of #5 George Briggs (8/5) for trainer Chad Brown. The son of Fog of War broke his maiden easily in debut at Belmont at the Big A going long and winning by 2+ lengths against NY-bred runners. Brown thought highly enough of him to push him up against open stakes company in his second start coming off a four-month layoff in the Colonel Liam Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The horse ran well to finish third to Mi Bago and Enterdadragon. Two other horses from that race, Bakers Street and Smooth Breeze, went on to win their next start against allowance company. Now the horse comes back from a five-month layoff and Brown immediately places him against stakes company again, but this time it should be a little easier. Top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. hops up for the ride again as he rode him to his debut. Morning line favorite #3 Friend Ofthe Devil (7/5) is stretching out for the first time after showing a lot of class winning a NYSSS at six furlongs last time out. He has the best Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) in the field, but the question is whether this speedster can go the distance. The inner turf course has been playing better to closers over the last few weeks despite some early winners going gate-to-wire. Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-15 during the Saratoga meet and Friend Ofthe Devil’s sire, Honest Mischief, has never produced a turf route winner. I’m willing to fade that runner as a result. Meanwhile, #4 River of Time (8/1) finished second last time out to Friend Ofthe Devil but has a more off-the-pace running style that would seem to support stretching out to two turns. Additionally, trainer Chad Summers has a hot start in limited entries during the Saratoga meet, so you must think his runners are live as they are 5-5 hitting the board winning 60% of those entries. The horse keeps the jockey Junior Alvarado on the mount and might be a win contender but should be a price you can use to round out your vertical wagers. Finally, a horse like #8 Moe Eighty Eight (15/1) for trainer John Ortiz is worth a mention deeper underneath. The son of Solomini is getting blinkers added and while he has not yet broken his maiden, he has shown the ability to pass horses but needs to put himself in a better position early. Jockey Joel Rosario is always dangerous on a deep closer and at 15/1 on the morning line, I like the value you’re getting with an equipment change.

How I’m playing it: I will likely be fading Friend Ofthe Devil from my horizontal wagers. George Briggs might not be the most obvious single despite being a short price, but I am not in love with anyone else in the field as a logical alternative. Horses like Moe Eighty Eight and River of Time are strictly underneath plays but could be upgraded given scratches or course conditions. This feels like a race I would want to attack as a single in horizontals and attack with vertical wagers and big prices underneath my top pick to make some money.