TBD Track Stats Week Five

TAMPA BAY DOWNS TRACK STATS

Throughout the meet at Tampa Bay Downs, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Get the latest stats updated through 12/29/24.

WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?

Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform at different distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting.

Post Time Favorite Analysis

Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 40.1% rate during Tampa Bay Downs winter meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 72.1% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 11.1% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.

From a betting standpoint, doing a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $2.10 (+5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Field Size

• Dirt – 7.96
• Turf – 9.54
• OFF Turf – 7.00
• Overall – 8.45

Races by Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 31.3%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 39.5%
• Claiming race favorites – 41.6%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 41.7%
• Allowance race favorites – 50.0%
• Handicap races favorites – 0.0%
• Stakes race favorites – 50.0%

Races by Surface and Distance

• Dirt sprint favorites – 43.2%
• Dirt route favorites – 48.3%
• Turf sprint favorites – 0.0%
• Turf route favorites – 32.7%
• OFF Turf route favorites – 0.0%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt Sprint Winners (n=88)

• 47.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 37.5% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 14.8% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt Route Winners (n=29)

• 41.4% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 41.4% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 17.2% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=2)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Route Winners (n=52)

• 13.5% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 42.3% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 44.2% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

OFF Turf Route Winners (n=1)

• 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 100% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Shipper Analysis

Tampa Bay’s meet is one that attracts horses from around the country, Track Stats will also be providing analysis of where winners during the first few weeks of the meet ran their last race to better inform bettors of any shipping trends that might exist.