Suncoast Stakes Picks

Saturday’s Suncoast Stakes features a competitive range of fillies, from those who are graded stakes tested, to those who showed enough talent in their maiden breaking race to step up into a Kentucky Oaks Prep.

Your 2-1 morning line favorite is the #6 La Cara, a Mark Casse trainee who Dylan Davis will take the mount on for the first time. The big question mark is whether or not they intend to have her more forwardly placed than she was in her last two efforts. Although she broke towards the back of the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) to finish 16 ¼ lengths behind Immersive and came from off the pace to win the G3 Pocahontas, she broke her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion in the start prior. Her maiden-breaking race, as well as her 2nd start where she was forwardly placed, are her career-best Beyer Speed Figures.

Whether or not they intend on sending her, she will likely take a piece here based on the talent she’s already shown, a freshening after facing top-notch fillies in the Breeders’ Cup, and the fact that she is cutting back in distance and also has experience around two turns.

I will try to get a slightly better price on my top pick, #4 Her Laugh, your 5-2 second choice on the morning line. The Whit Beckman trainee just took a nice group of fillies gate-to-wire in the Untapable where she was cruising in hand down the stretch and ended up lugging in and swapping to her left lead. Golden Gamble passed tired horses and attempted to run her down, but Her Laugh swapped back to her right lead and was able to stay clear by 2 ½ lengths. As she has shown the best speed of the group, besides the #8 Cloe who debuted sprinting on synthetic, it looks like she can potentially replicate her Untapable win. It’s also encouraging that even if she doesn’t get the lead, she did show the ability to overcome a slow start in her debut where she broke in last and was still able to track down the field to get the win. Jockey Irad Ortiz hops aboard for the first time today.

The #3 Italian Soiree is a runner I expect to see improve switching back to dirt and getting blinkers back on after regressing in her last start where she ran without blinkers for the first time. She is a mid-pack type of runner who routed going two turns last time out at Keeneland, and Saturday’s two-turn mile should suit her. Trainer John Terranova hits at a 24%-win rate at Tampa Bay Downs and a 13%-win rate at all tracks excluding Tampa Bay Downs.

A horse that I’ll play underneath is the #5 Junta, at 12-1 on the morning line. The horse broke her maiden easily on debut last month at Tampa Bay Downs. Although it isn’t clear how strong that maiden race was as only one horse has come back to win the next time out so far, this is more so of an underneath pedigree play for me on a horse that won nicely on debut. Although Junta is her dam’s first foal, she comes from a strong female family of producers. Her 2nd dam is MGSW India, who won the Cotillion (G2) and the Azeri (G2) to name a couple. India went on to produce 6 winners, one of which became a producer herself. Junta’s third dam is Misty Hour, who is the dam of Go for Wand winner Pilfer (the dam of To Honor and Serve).

Which filly do you have your eye on in the Suncoast Stakes? Are you playing with any of the favorites, or are there any sneaky longshots? Reach out on NYRA Bets to give us your take.