Summertime Stakes (G3) Picks

Pace Scenario

You must imagine #1 Mizumi (4-5) will be going straight to the lead from the inside rail for trainer Bob Baffert as the daughter of Justify is stretching out from winning at 6 ½ furlongs in her debut. However, horses like #3 Daring Pursuit (20-1) and #4 Mo’ Em Down (6-1) with blinkers added should also display strong early speed as both are stretching out to a longer distance. I also believe #6 Bank Shot (8-1) will be in the mix during the early stages, but she can also rate off the pace from the outside. Baffert only has one runner in the race, so he won’t be able to dictate the pace scenario as much as in other races, but I believe it is a straightforward affair for the odds-on favorite to clear off from the field going into the first turn and get comfortable down the backstretch as she routes for the first time.

Analysis

The Summertime Stakes (G3) is an interesting race as it could be the spotlight for some new faces in the three-year-old filly crop that was shaken up this last weekend when Counting Stars bested Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Always a Runner in the Acorn (G1). We have also seen a horse like Explora cut back to sprinting as she won the Leslie’s Lady Stakes at Churchill Downs, which might portend a one-turn campaign for the rest of 2026. Enter #1 Mizumi (4-5). The Bob Baffert trainee is the daughter of Justify and out of a productive mare who has produced winners, but never at the highest level. She has been previously paired with a big-time sire like Gun Runner, which led to her offspring Hern who has been reliable and healthy (40 career starts) but has never competed at an elite level and is now in the claiming ranks at Lone Star. Her match with Justify might be the best yet, as it earned an A++ True Nicks score, and the way Mizumi debuted back in May certainly showcased huge potential moving forward. She sat off the pace in her debut before taking the lead in the stretch and putting away Saucier as the two of them were nearly 10 lengths clear of the next closest runner. The issue is that the race has not come back strong, as none of the horses that have run back have won, and it’s been a mixed bag in terms of whether their speed figures have improved or regressed. All of that said, she is the fastest horse in the race, and her pedigree, while not overwhelming on the female side, does point toward added distance. Expect jockey Juan Hernandez to get her up front and get her to relax going down the backstretch, as it feels unlikely that anyone will hound her for aggressive early fractions. Whether she is good enough to make noise later in the summer in Grade 1 races in Kentucky or Saratoga remains to be seen, but she is the sort of horse you anchor your Late Pick 5 around as a single.

The longshot I like the most is #6 Bank Shot (8-1) for trainer Ryan Hanson, who is coming off a little freshening after facing tough competition in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2). She broke her maiden going two turns at Santa Anita and ran a respectable second in the Santa Ysabel (G3) back in March against Forced Entry and French Blue going Saturday’s distance. I’m willing to forgive the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) effort as she was the best of the rest, as Meaning and Brooklyn Blonde opened up over a dozen lengths on the field. Otherwise, the horse has never run a bad race, having hit the board in six of seven starts while consistently running against top-caliber competition for her generation in California. I love the way she has been training coming into this race, and I like that Hanson gave her a little time off after her last start to regroup. She fired off an impressive 58.2 second five-furlong bullet workout on June 6 and should be able to sit just off the pace. She might seem one-paced when looking at her running lines, but she has passed horses and can easily sit third in the early going of the race and get the first crack at the leaders. I don’t think she is good enough to pull off the upset, but she is the sort of horse I love using in straight exactas, as I know I can pair her up with the favorite to improve my ROI.

#5 Wolf Hill (6-1) is one of two maidens in this race, and while picking a maiden to win for the first time against stakes company is usually a fool’s errand (see: Publisher and Ocelli), it does not mean that he can’t run well, which is something he has done in every start. The daughter of Upstart for trainer Leonard Powell has hit the board seven times in eight starts with five second-place finishes. He has been close to winning as she was headed by Bank Shot in her third career start, but typically finds herself a length or more off the leader. However, her speed figures are improving, and if you focus only on those numbers, she fits this race as an underneath play, or perhaps even an upset contender, should Mizumi regress. However, the horse lacks early speed and seems likely to sit a few lengths off the pace in a race that favors those on a forward trip. Jockey Antonio Fresu has done a nice job the last two times out on this runner, but she will need the field to come back to her, and she does not feel like the winning type. The other factor is that she hasn’t faced overwhelming MSW fields the last several times out, whereas Bank Shot faced the trio of Bottle of Rouge, Super Corredora, and Consequent, all eventual graded stakes winners, in her first three career starts prior to breaking her maiden fourth time out.

The biggest X-factor in the field is #7 Marjoram (3-1) for trainer Michael McCarthy. The daughter of Quality Road broke her maiden in debut on the dirt over a sloppy track last year at Churchill Downs, but has been on the turf ever since, which makes sense as her full sibling, Spiced Up, is a graded stakes turf sprinter for trainer Bill Mott, who just recently finished second in a salty allowance race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga. As for Marjoram, she is coming off her own graded stakes triumph in the Senorita (G3) as she mastered the Downhill Turf Course going from last-to-first with a beautifully timed move by Juan Hernandez. Obviously, she loses Hernandez for this race as he rides for Baffert, but she picks up Esmail Jaramillo, who has done a nice job riding out in California since moving his tack from Gulfstream Park. Despite stretching out to two turns for the first time in her career, she feels like a horse who will be coming from the back of the field and trying to make a furious charge. While she won on dirt, it’s important to note that the track was wet, as she is untested on a fast surface at Santa Anita. These races tend to be dominated up front, and she will not be anywhere near there during the first part of the race. At a short price, I will look elsewhere for value while acknowledging her class could ensure she hits the board.