Stephen Foster (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

The pace scenario has changed dramatically since the initial draw, when it was a seven-horse field. #6 Forged Steel and #7 Navajo Warrior are OUT for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. There were initial reports that trainer Mike Maker was also going to pull #1 Willy D’s to run at Lone Star, but once Joseph Jr. didn’t enter his two runners, Maker appears to have had a change of heart and now is tentatively running Willy D’s. The problem with all these musical chairs is that it dramatically shifts the pace scenario. Under the assumption that Willy D’s runs, then you will have a situation where he will send from the inside rail and battle #5 Magnitude for early supremacy. While Magnitude walked the dog up front and won the Dubai World Cup (G1), he has shown the ability to rate in recent starts prior to his trip overseas. Therefore, jockey Jose Ortiz should be able to sit off the flank of Willy D’s during the early going, as it does not make much sense for him to contest the early fractions as he will try to have plenty left late to hold off #3 Sovereignty, #4 Baeza, and #2 White Abarrio. The modest pace scenario likely undermines Baeza’s chances the most, as he is the true “closer” in the field who will be sitting last of the five slated runners.

Analysis

The showdown in the older handicap division is a welcome sight as fans get treated to seeing a quartet of accomplished older horses square off outside of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The nine-furlong distance ensures all four of the main contenders: Sovereignty, Magnitude, White Abarrio, and Baeza, will have an equal chance for success. One additional factor to consider on Saturday is the weather, as there is a forecast of 2 inches of rain in the Louisville area on Friday and Saturday. When you combine the distance and likely track conditions with my overall analysis of these horses, I keep landing on the same horse: #3 Sovereignty (6-5). The reigning Horse of the Year for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is a looming presence in this division, making his second start of 2026. While it is valid to point out that the son of Into Mischief has yet to defeat older horses, he has only had one opportunity to do so when he came back off a nine-month layoff in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). He clearly felt fresh off the bench and showed unusual early speed while going straight to the lead under a strong hold from jockey Junior Alvarado. He was hounded every step of the way by 2025 Triple Crown rival Journalism, who refused to let him get into a comfortable position while contesting every step. At the top of the stretch, you thought Journalism might get by him, but it was the veteran, White Abarrio, who had sat the perfect trip behind the pace, who went by on the outside. It was encouraging to see Sovereignty finish strong, even after getting passed, while Journalism gave way for third. While Sovereignty’s running style evolved over the course of his three-year-old season, it is hard for me to believe he will become a frontrunner as an older horse. I expect him to relax more in his second start of the season and track just behind the front duo of Willy D’s and Magnitude. Having had the opportunity to watch Sovereignty train at the Oklahoma track at Saratoga leading up to his race on Saturday, he continued to physically mature as a four-year-old and looked immaculate before arriving at Churchill Downs. He loves the track, as he is a perfect 2-for-2 in Louisville, with victories in the 2024 Street Sense (G3) and the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). He also loves a wet track, as evidenced by his victories in the Triple Crown last year. The horse had a dominating closing kick, and while I do believe his best distance is 1 ¼ miles, he showed that he has no problem winning at nine furlongs, as evidenced by his easy victory in last year’s Jim Dandy (G2). Is 6/5 a short price to take on a horse that has yet to beat older horses? Yes. However, if he wins, you might not get 6/5 on this horse for the rest of the year until the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Some readers and listeners might believe I dislike #5 Magnitude (7-2). I don’t. The $450,000 son of Not This Time is such a nice horse who is coming off a career-best effort, winning the Dubai World Cup (G1) over international superstar Forever Young. My issue with him has less to do with the horse and more to do with the way people seemed to so quickly anoint him as a worthy adversary to the top three-year-olds in the division last year after he beat a nothing field in the Iowa Derby. I’m willing to toss his effort in the Travers (G1) as he clearly was not ready for 1 ¼ miles yet and did not get over the track well, according to jockey Ben Curtis. He was unable to beat Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), and then the connections opted to skip the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to get an early start on the older division by winning the Clark (G2) and following it up with an easy win in the Razorback (G3). He shipped to Dubai and was able to control the pace up front while hanging on to finish with the third-slowest winning time in the history of the Dubai World Cup (G1). Still, the cutback to nine furlongs makes him so dangerous, and jockey Jose Ortiz has a straightforward mission, which is to prevent the pace from getting too wild so that he has plenty left closing for home. Willy D’s makes things easier and tougher for him. In some ways, Willy D’s presence ensures Magnitude can get into a comfortable trip stalking the pace, but it also complicates things as it invites Sovereignty to be sitting a close third, so that there is minimal cushion when turning for home. In which case, Magnitude needs to hope that he can outkick a horse that beat him by 20 lengths the last time they faced each other. On the other hand, if Ortiz tries to get to the front at all costs, you have the possibility of opening up on the field and building some space between his top competitors, but the issue with that is Willy D’s is likely to stay close, which prevents Magnitude from getting fully relaxed while clicking off faster fractions that he would like. All that said, I do love the way Asmussen is training Magnitude with a strong bullet two workouts back, followed by a maintenance work last time out in the morning. That is the pattern you love to see from Asmussen runners, which typically means they are ready to fire a big race. I expect him to run much better than when he faced Sovereignty in the Travers, and I expect a fight to the finish between these two.

#4 Baeza (6-1) appeared to be a horse I would like to use in an exacta, but I’m more hesitant now, given the pace scenario. The former Triple Crown rival to Sovereignty is now a stablemate as the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner was transferred to Bill Mott’s barn after the passing of trainer John Shirreffs. Much like Sovereignty, Baeza had an unfortunate start to 2026, and I expect him to rebound in a big way on Saturday. After a forgettable effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the horse went to the bench for six months until returning at Churchill Downs in the Alysheba (G2). The race was over as soon as the gates popped open, as an assistant starter appeared to hold Baeza once the gates were opened, and he eventually hopped out of the gate while spotting the field eight lengths in the first 100 yards. Despite the poor beginning and having to make a four-wide move around the far turn, he still was closing with substantial interest and nearly got the best of Skippylongstocking and Corporate Power, who were necks apart at the wire. While Baeza is more of a closer, the horse has shown the ability to track the pace when the field size and pace dynamics dictate. Still, I imagine he will be in the back of the field on Saturday, which is not atypical of many of his races. The difference will be ensuring he gets out of the gate cleanly and stays in touch with the field so he does not have too much work to do coming home. He bested Magnitude when they faced each other last year in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and has every opportunity to take a big step forward as a four-year-old, given he was a May foal and developmentally behind many of his Triple Crown rivals last year, who were foaled in February or March. Without getting any pace, a horse like Magnitude might not be backing up as much as he might have previously, and it puts a great deal of pressure on jockey Flavien Prat to keep Baeza involved from the start so he does not have too much work cut out for himself at the top of the stretch.