Stephen Foster Picks

Overview: For the first time since 1992 we have the top two finishers of the Kentucky Derby (G1) facing off against each other as four-year-olds as Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone return to the site of their photo finish. The last time it happened was when Strike the Gold, trained by Nick Zito, faced off against Best Pal in the 1992 Pimlico Special after finishing 1-2 in the Kentucky Derby (G1) the year before. This year’s renewal of the Stephen Foster provides plenty of additional star power beyond Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan. You have Hit Show returning from his career-defining victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1), the uber-talented Mindframe stretched back out to two turns after a thrilling victory in the Churchill Downs (G1) on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard. You also have First Mission and Skippylongstocking searching for their first career Grade 1 victory after collecting 13 Grade 2 and Grade 3 victories between them. It’s a star-studded field and one that sets up for who we could see in the Whitney (G1).

#2 Mindframe (7/2) – The son of Constitution is easily one of the most intriguing horses in training due to his versatility to run multiple distances. In six career starts he has never finished worse than second and has two victories at seven furlongs and wins at a mile and 1 1/16 miles. His two runner-up efforts came in the Haskell (G1) and the Belmont (G1) going nine and ten furlongs, respectively. In both efforts he got to the lead only to relinquish it to Dornoch who battled back on the inside both times. The talent was obvious in this Todd Pletcher trainee, but he needed to mature after looking green in the stretch in both of his Grade 1 efforts as a three-year-old. He has come back at four as a more mature horse and started off his 2025 campaign with a victory in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) before putting on a dazzling show in the Churchill Downs (G1) when he charged from the back half of the field to win at the wire over the trio of Nysos, Banishing, and Book ‘em Danno. Since that race, Nysos came back to demolish his California foes in the Tropical Bend (G3) while Book ‘em Danno beat Mullikin in the True North (G3) at Saratoga on the Belmont Stakes Day card. Now Mindframe is stretching back out and that always seemed to have been the plan for Pletcher and owner Mike Repole who have the enviable task of making sure their top two horses (Mindframe and Fierceness) can have 2025 campaigns that do not overlap too often. The Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) on Mindframe might be a few points light compared to others in the field, but we saw both Nysos and Book ‘em Danno improve their BSF from the Churchill Downs (G1) to their next start. A similar improvement would put Mindframe in the mix and he should sit the perfect trip tracking the pace of First Mission and Skippylongstocking. He showed a new dimension last time out sitting behind several horses and having a big closing kick. He won’t have to contend with as much traffic this time around and can make a statement for top older male horse. The 7/2 morning line feels unlikely as he will be second choice to Sierra Leone and could even challenge for favoritism in one of the better races of the year.

#1 First Mission (4/1) – The Brad Cox trainee has fallen short in his previous attempts at getting a Grade 1 having lost the 2024 Pegasus World Cup (G1), 2024 Stephen Foster (G1), and 2024 Whitney (G1) by a combined 34 ¼ lengths. However, his best showing among those three was at Churchill Downs last year in this race where he finished fourth by a little over three lengths to a group that included Kingsbarns, Pyrenees, and Skippylongstocking. So what, if anything, has changed since last year? The Godolphin runner appears to have improved as a five-year-old turning in a pair of strong efforts coming back from a 6+ month layoff. He ran third by a neck in the Razorback (G3) to Banishing and Alexander Helios in a race that was dominated on the front end. He came back in his last start to avenge those losses as he easily bested that duo and Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) going nine furlongs. For Saturday, he should be sitting a perfect pocket trip behind the early speed of Skippylongstocking while saving ground on the rail. He showed last time out that he can get the nine furlongs and while most of his best efforts have come at Oaklawn Park, he does possess a big victory at Churchill Downs when he won the Alysheba (G2) in the slop last year. His 109 last out BSF is more than good enough to put him in the winner’s circle, but it is noteworthy that he bounced off big efforts the last two times he ran career-best figures. I think he is finally due for a good Grade 1 placement, but I do have my questions about whether he can be consistent enough at this level, though he should sit the perfect trip.

#4 Sierra Leone (5/2) – I have spent a lot of time writing and talking about this $2.3 million son of Gun Runner over the last 18 months. He has never missed the board in 10 career starts, but at times would frustrate bettors as went 0-3 as the post time favorite last summer in Saratoga before finally fulfilling his promise by winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar. You do not see many Grade 1-caliber dirt route horses like him who have a deep closing running style, which can make it difficult to handicap his chances in any given race. Is he pace dependent? Depends. He closed like a freight train in the Risen Star (G2) behind slow early fractions, but he also is not running against the likes of Track Phantom, Resilience, and Honor Marie anymore. When you look at his two Grade 1 victories, he managed to run behind nearly identical 1:10 and change opening six-furlong fractions in the Blue Grass (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He is unlikely to get that type of pace on Saturday as even if a horse like Ashcroft presses the pace, nobody will go that fast early. Are the Saratoga races worth drawing a line through? Maybe. There was always buzz about the fact the horse might have liked the surface and that it could have been a little too speed-favoring over the summer for him to get home from the back of the field. He won at Keeneland, Aqueduct, Del Mar, and Fair Grounds, so his form can travel to other tracks, but it’s possible Saratoga is not to his liking. The good news for Saturday is that his only career start at Churchill Downs was that incredible runner-up finish to Mystik Dan where he lugged in severely banging with Forever Young and likely costing both a chance to beat the eventual winner. It appears trainer Chad Brown has figured out the lugging issues, so the fact Sierra Leone can handle the Churchill Downs surface is a positive. His dull third-place effort in the New Orleans Classic (G2) might not be that surprising given the lack of pace and the fact it often will take a horse with a deep closing running style a couple of races to round back into form. The screws should be a bit tighter on Saturday, but I will still cautiously play against him as my top pick but will hedge in my horizontal wagers.

#3 Skippylongstocking (6/1) – I could go with Hit Show (9/2) in this spot after his impressive victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1), but I do wonder about the “Dubai Bounce” as he makes his first start in North America after international travel. He is an honest horse, but that trip can take more out of some horses than others and I would rather go for a slightly bigger price underneath. Skippylongstocking is a bit of a throwback as the modestly bred son of Exaggerator, who cost $37,000 at sale has 11 career wins and earnings north of $3.6 million. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has always managed this horse well as he picks up Grade 2 and Grade 3 wins across the country, but he has failed to get the career-defining victory in a Grade 1. He has good early speed and considering his post draw to the outside of Mindframe and First Mission, it seems like he would go straight to the front with Jose Ortiz aboard to avoid being hung wide into the first turn. Joseph Jr. is notoriously bad at Churchill Downs in big races as the trainer is 0-25 the last five years under the twin spires in graded stakes action but does have five finished in the money during that stretch. The key is whether he is good enough to hold off the challengers and to this point it would seem like the trio of horses that I have above him are just better. If he can get an easy lead, perhaps he could hold off a horse like First Mission, or Sierra Leone gets a bad trip, or Mindframe does not like the distance, but it is hard to imagine all three not firing their best effort.