Spinaway (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

There is always a lot of speed in these juvenile stakes races as most horses break their maiden in gate-to-wire fashion and now face other runners who are just as quick out of the gate. It would appear as if the main speed in the race has drawn to the outside with #5 Girvy Girl coming up from Gulfstream Park after winning her debut by 15 lengths. Joining her early will be #6 Harper’s Corner, who won the Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga earlier this summer in frontrunning fashion. Then you have two of the favorites, #7 Angel of Kirk and #8 Life Changing, on the far outside posts. Angel of Kirk showed some ability to rate in her debut and might not be quite quick enough to go with some of the speedsters early. Meanwhile, Life Changing wins the draw as she is to the far outside and can play the break, which allows her to stalk the pace or go straight to the lead should the opportunity arise.

Analysis

One of Saratoga's defining attributes is the outstanding juvenile maiden races where we get to see the stars of tomorrow. This year’s group of two-year-old fillies is the strongest we have seen in recent years, and #8 Life Changing (5-2) was perhaps the most impressive. The daughter of standout freshman sire Life Is Good dazzled the Saratoga crowd on Jim Dandy Day, where she went to the lead and drew off to win by seven lengths. From a pedigree perspective, the stretch out to seven furlongs should not be a problem, as Life Is Good was an outstanding horse at a mile to nine furlongs, and her dam won in her debut at seven furlongs. Additionally, Life Changing is the half-sibling to 2024 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Seize the Gray, so there is plenty of class and distance in her pedigree. She also finished her debut the right way, drawing away from the field and opening up lengths in the stretch to suggest she should appreciate extra ground. It’s also promising that the fourth-place finisher that day, Virabhadrasana, came back to win her next race on Travers Day while improving her Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) six points. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Spinaway (G1) six times, including last year’s renewal with Tommy Jo. Jockey Flavien Prat takes over for Luis Saez, and he will be able to look to his left after the break and see the field to determine whether he can take the initiative with her to have her sit just off the pace. She continues to train well for Pletcher in the mornings, having gotten in three additional workouts since her debut race. It’s not uncommon for fillies to regress after big-time debut efforts, but she did it so easily and has the physical confirmation to suggest she is a serious filly not only for the Spinaway, but the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and beyond.

Trainer Kinnon LaRose has had a strong summer at Saratoga, as it is his first year with his own string after taking over for his former boss, Tom Amoss. LaRose has had incredible success with his two-year-old runners, particularly those making their second start, which is why I am interested in #4 Stress Relief (8-1) as an underneath play and potential upset candidate. During the current meet, LaRose is 4-10 (40%) with his juvenile dirt runners and an astonishing 67% (4-6) with those making their second career start. Stress Relief will be the first of his two-year-olds making her third career start at Saratoga, and she should continue her upward trajectory. The daughter of superstar sire Not This Time is out of a Ghostzapper mare and should want additional ground after breaking her maiden at Churchill Downs going five furlongs and then upsetting the Adirondack (G3) field at 6/1 while going 6 ½ furlongs. Her BSF are modest, and she would need to take a big step forward from her career-best of a 70 to compete with this group. However, she is a notable runner in this field, with experience passing horses and coming from off the pace. Nearly all the speed is to her outside, so jockey Junior Alvarado will have to work out a bit of a trip as she will likely get crossed over by several to her outside, but that should also allow her to sit a comfortable trip in the second flight and get first run on the potentially beleaguered leaders. Stress Relief’s dam, Littlestitious, was a juvenile stakes winner at seven furlongs, so we know she will appreciate extra ground and could be overlooked. LaRose has had such a good meet with his juveniles that it feels foolish to dismiss him from this race simply because his last name isn’t Cox, Pletcher, or Asmussen.

Speaking of Asmussen, his daughter of City of Light, #2 Summer Starlet (2-1), is the morning line favorite and put on quite an effort in her debut. She bested a heavily hyped field at 15-1 that day, coming from the clouds to pull away by 6 ½ lengths. No other horses have run back from that race, so it’s hard to determine what she beat that day, but the manner with which she did it was impressive. Her 87 BSF is the top in the field, and her ability to come from off the pace while debuting at 6 ½ furlongs would certainly point to her wanting more distance. I do question whether she can make an equally dramatic move against a tougher group. Distance should not be an issue as she is sired by City of Light, and while her dam has not produced much from the other three foals who have raced, it is notable that the best of that group was Coach Prime, who won at second asking for Bob Baffert going a mile and then finished a close third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). What makes it notable is that Coach Prime was sired by Quality Road, and City of Light’s sire is Quality Road, so this pedigree cross has worked in the past to produce a successful runner. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. is taking over for Jose Ortiz, who is riding at Kentucky Downs for the remainder of the meet. I am typically hesitant to bet back a horse that debuted at 15-1 and is now 2-1, but you see those sorts of dynamics more often in juvenile races where a horse can get overlooked first time out but turns out to be a high-level stakes runner. Still, from the inside position, she will have a lot of traffic with which to contend and could be hard-pressed to replicate her dazzling debut.

Brad Cox’s #7 Angel of Kirk (9-2) might get overlooked as she debuted in the early part of the meet, and some might have gotten just how impressive she was after seeing the likes of Life Changing, Summer Starlet, and Chad Brown’s Libby Lloyd, who is not running Saturday, but could point to the Frizette (G1) this fall. The daughter of Yaupon easily bested the competition in her debut at 5 ½ furlongs over a field of seven that has yet to produce a next-out winner. That field has sent mixed signals, as some have run faster in their next race while others declined or switched surfaces. It’s noteworthy that jockey Flavien Prat jumps off Angel of Kirk to ride Life Changing, which means Manny Franco takes over the mount on Angel of Kirk. Franco serving as a replacement jockey has paid dividends for Cox as he took over Leading Change in the Travers (G1) from Irad Ortiz Jr. and flawlessly rode the horse to victory in the signature race of the summer. Franco will have to contend with speed to his outside but could allow Life Changing to cross in front of her and then resume a stalking trip. I do question the seven furlongs as there is a lot of sprint pedigree on both sides of the family, but she should remain competitive at that distance. Her 77 BSF is a slight cut below the top contenders, but she also has had the most time to recover and build up her foundation. She missed a workout the week of August 15 but returned with two solid five-furlong morning drills to prepare for this race and should be sitting on a solid effort.