Southwest Stakes Picks

#7 Patch Adams (5/2) – Surely trainer Brad Cox needs to win eventually at Oaklawn Park, right? It is amazing, but the star-studded trainer is 0-25 to this point during the meet and hitting the board less than a third of the time. There is no doubt he has his best horses running at Fair Grounds, but it is hard for me not to side with Patch Adams in this race. The son of Into Mischief faded to third in debut as an odds-on favorite but came back with vengeance in his second start as he pummeled a maiden field at Churchill Downs by 10+ lengths while going seven furlongs. He is stretching out to two turns for the first time but has been firing off five-furlong bullet workouts in South Florida while preparing for this race. It is curious that Cox has this horse down at Gulfstream Park rather than Fair Grounds and might speak to his long-term goals of having this horse run in some of the Florida Derby prep races later this spring. Jockey Flavien Prat is coming down for the ride, which gives me even more confidence at Prat is the ultimate jockey upgrade and should be able to have this horse relax just off the pace if the situation dictates. In a race where I am not enamored with the morning line favorite, is it possible to get a fair price on a Cox horse who just ran a 98 Beyer Speed Figure last time out? Maybe.

#6 Sandman (5/1) – The son of Tapit was one of many impressive Mark Casse trainees who ran (and won) this summer up in Saratoga. He also has solid back class having run against a good group of horses in his crop including Innovator, Owen Almighty, Jonathan’s Way, Sovereignty, and even Aviator Gui. Several of those horses would contend for favoritism in this race and Sandman is coming off an impressive victory last time out against optional claiming company in which he came from off the pace to win while giving up some ground to get the job done. He also recorded his career-best Beyer Speed Figure (89) for that two-turn effort at Oaklawn Park and certainly looked to appreciate more distance. Jockey Cristian Torres stays aboard, which is a positive as the horse has yet to have the same jockey ride him in consecutive starts, so developing some familiarity here is a good thing. The horse has been training beautifully in preparation for the race with a solid 48 second four-furlong workout that was third of 142 on January 17. He will be stepping back up in class after failing to win in his first two graded stakes attempts, but he feels like a horse on the rise who is putting things together and has the right running style for this race, which should feature a significant amount of speed. Look for Torres to use the patented “Oaklawn Middle Move” to get him into contention late in the backstretch so he does not have much work to do turning for home.

#1 Gaming (2/1) – Trainer Bob Baffert is back on the Kentucky Derby trail and bringing one of his better horses to Hot Springs, Arkansas. However, I am not a fan of Gaming. Or more accurately said, I am not a fan of his sire, Game Winner. The first-crop sire has been underwhelming producing only two first-out winners from 48 raced foals (4%) and to this point, his offspring have not shown the ability to handle distance as they are 1-22 (4%) in dirt route races. That said, Gaming has accomplished a lot winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and then finished second to stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. However, he regressed badly next time out where he was thoroughly trounced by Journalism and Getaway Car in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Now he ships east, and jockey Juan Hernandez is back aboard, which is notable because Flavien Prat rode this horse two of the last three times out and clearly has opted to ride Patch Adams instead (a horse he’s never been on before). The jockey change raises some eyebrows, but Hernandez is more than capable in this spot and is an outstanding rider for getting early speed out of horses. He should be able to get forward, but will face pressure from Patch Adams, #8 American Promise (6/1), and #10 Speed King (15/1) that could make it more challenging. I am a fan of several Baffert runners this year for the Kentucky Derby, but Gaming is a little lower on my list.

#4 Tiztastic (10/1) – There are a few other prices that are interesting to me like #8 American Promise (6/1) and #2 Publisher (12/1) who are coming out of the same race, but I wonder if their Beyer Speed Figure from that race is a little too high and there could be regression. As a result, I’ll look to a horse that has yet to win on the dirt but is a perfect 2-2 on the grass. Perhaps the son of Tiz the Law is on the wrong surface, but he is two-time graded stakes-placed on the dirt with a runner-up finish in the Street Sense (G3) and a third-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He can clearly handle distance and Tiz the Law, unlike fellow first-crop sire Game Winner, is having a lot of success with his offspring handling two turns as they are winning at a 35% clip in dirt route races. The biggest issue will be the trip. He is more of a deep closer and could give himself too much to do turning for home. It was promising to see him show a little earlier speed last time out, but that also seemed to mitigate his late kick as he ran evenly in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), though there was not much passing in that race. Despite not winning on dirt, his Beyer Speed Figures on the surface have improved in every start and he’s shown to be competitive at this level. Look for him to make a run late and pick up some pieces in your deeper vertical wagers.