Southwest (G3) Picks

Pace Scenario

There should be a strong pace in the Southwest (G3) despite the scratch of your speedy morning line favorite #5 Litmus Test (5/2) for trainer Bob Baffert. All eyes will shift to #2 D’code (3/1) for trainer Ray Ashbord Jr. who is likely to be the speed of the speed coming off a dazzling debut maiden victory at six furlongs, but he could have company. From his inside, #1 Reclamation (30/1) is quick into stride, and I’d be shocked if Bob Baffert’s other entry, #3 Buetane (4/1), doesn’t show significant early speed. Further outside a horse like #10 Bricklin (20/1) will be forward and #13 Soldier N Diplomat (12/1) might have the most incentive to blitz the field early so he can cross and clear going into the first turn from that wide post position. Oaklawn’s track plays fair, which means horses can come from off the pace, but this will not be a short stretch race, so the horses coming from further back should have every opportunity to track down the leaders.

Analysis

Last year we saw a Cinderella Story emerge over the course of the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep season at Oaklawn Park as underdog Coal Battle won hearts and races to qualify for the biggest race of his trainer’s, Lonnie Briley, career. While Mark Casse is a Hall of Fame trainer, his horse, #9 Strategic Risk (9/2), feels a bit like Coal Battle in that he does not have a highly regarded pedigree and came out of nowhere to win the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. The Florida-bred son of Noble Bird who stands for $3,000 is a homebred for John Oxley and is the full sibling to Strategic Bird who was a two-time stakes winner. His running lines make sense when you look at them one at a time. He started off his career with a smashing debut victory at Gulfstream Park against fellow Florida-breds before getting rushed up to run in Sanford (G3) at Saratoga, which was probably a little too much at that point and he also did not get the most ideal trip. Then, Casse switched him to the turf in the With Anticipation (G3) and it’s obvious he is not a turf runner. Casse got him back down to Florida where he finished third in a state-bred stakes race going seven furlongs but really blossomed when they finally stretched him out against Florida-bred company in the Reality Stakes as he was assigned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) after demolishing the field by nine lengths. The quality of that field got a boost when third-place finisher, Roger That Dana, came back to run second in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last month against open company. Meanwhile, Strategic Risk stepped onto the Kentucky Derby trail for Casse and passed his first test in the Smarty Jones with flying colors. He closely tracked a slow pace and easily pulled away from the rest of the field. Admittedly, he sat an ideal trip, but he has the speed to put himself in a good position early and has shown he can pass horses as he did two back at Gulfstream Park when he was mid-pack during the early stages of the race. On Friday, he should be able to get away in good order and sit behind early speed before getting first run on the beleaguered front runners. Do I think he is a Kentucky Derby (G1) horse? Maybe not, but at 1 1/16 miles, I think he is the type of horse that has shown steady improvement, likes the distance, and should excel in the early prep races.

With the potential for a strong pace, I like the way this race sets up for #7 Liberty National (10/1) at a bit of a price for trainer Kenny McPeek. The $525,000 son of Maxfield is coming off a close runner-up finish in the Gun Runner down at Fair Grounds and will run at his fourth track in four career starts. The Gun Runner has not come back particularly strong with winner, Chip Honocho, finishing fourth in the Lecomte (G3) last month and the other horses from that race that came back were also rans in the Lecomte (G3). However, he is a horse that should appreciate strong internal fractions and has been training well up to this spot as McPeek has gotten five official workouts into him since the Gun Runner. He will need to step forward on his figures, but the race sets up for him and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has had plenty of success the last few years at Oaklawn winning prep races for the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. I believe the key will be for Hernandez Jr. to make a middle move with him, which can often be a key at Oaklawn Park given the track configuration. Getting him into a mid-pack spot by the turn will ensure he does not have too much to do at the top of the stretch.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won this race a record six times and while I was higher on Litmus Test, I do believe #3 Buetane (4/1) brings some serious talent to the table. There are expectations for the $1.15 million son of Tiz the Law and while he has not popped in a big race yet, he has gotten faster in each start and should improve with added distance. After winning in debut at Del Mar, Baffert shipped him across the country to the Hopeful (G1) where he ran a distant second to eventual Champion Two-Year-Old Male Ted Noffey. Baffert put him on ice for the next three months before returning in the San Vicente (G2) where he was heavily favored but finished second to So Happy who could turn out to be a nice sprinter. Friday will be the first time Buetane goes two turns, but I believe he will take to it as his sire, Tiz the Law, is producing 20% winners in dirt routes and has a solid 7.0 furlong average winning distance, which is particularly noteworthy for a young sire as the vast majority of his progeny have been running in juvenile sprints as they start their careers. Baffert has him ready to go with some strong workouts leading up to this race to build his foundation and he has enough speed to be sitting close to the pace but does not need the lead. Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario is on the mount and will have plenty of options out of the starting gate depending on how he breaks, but I suspect he will follow the speed of D’code and stick with him the whole way around.

Finally, what to do with #2 D’code (3/1) has given me fits. The Ray Ashford Jr. trainee dazzled in debut at six furlongs in December at Oaklawn Park as he was assigned a 99 BSF. In some ways he reminds me of Cornucopian last year at Oaklawn Park as that runner was equally as impressive in debut and was immediately rushed into the Arkansas Derby (G1) where he was dueled into submission and finished fourth. It’s possible new jockey Luis Saez just gets the son of Speightstown up front and they roll the whole way, but I do have my questions about the pedigree as Speightstown is typically a sprint influence and D’code’s female family is mostly sprint as well. He is a nice horse who, I believe, will be best running in a race like the Pat Day Mile (G2) and could easily steal an early Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race going 8.5 furlongs. Ashford Jr. has been building up the foundation as evidenced by the six-furlong workout on January 15. He might just be that fast and his price tag of $775,000 certainly shows the physicals are impressive, but going from six furlongs to a two turn Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race in your second start is asking a lot from a horse and unlike in his debut race where he drew to the outside and could easily work over to the rail, he is going to be hounded by speedy runners to his outside and feel pace pressure the whole way. He would be a defensive play on my tickets, and I will be trying to beat him as he will surely go off under 2/1 odds due to the scratch of Litmus Test.