Smart N Fancy Stakes Picks

Analysis: Future Is Now is a horse that I feel like I’ve been trying to beat for ages. I’m right enough that I still think it is worth taking a swing, as I did two back when I liked Pipsy at 5/1. The Maryland-bred daughter of Great Notion trained by Michael Trombetta has been a queen of consistency since coming back as a five-year-old running 97, 98, and 99 Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) in her three starts of the year. Is 100 next? I am not sure as I think she could have reached her ceiling for this year and might be susceptible to regressing ever so slightly off that last effort. The thing about turf sprints is even a small regression can make a huge difference. I have no qualms with anyone singling her as their top choice in the race and I certainly will be including her on my tickets, but I will try to beat her. #5 Twirling Queen (6/1) feels like a horse that could do it for trainer Jose D’Angelo. The daughter of Twirling Candy finished fourth last time out in the Caress (G3) and lost by less than a length while doing all the heavy lifting up front going 21 seconds flat in the opening quarter and 43.2 seconds to the half mile. The horse picks up jockey Luis Saez who has ridden this horse to a stakes victory in the past. What is particularly notable is the horse continues to train well in the mornings despite running a career-best 95 BSF last time out. Twirling Queen ran a 47.2 second four-furlong bullet on August 8 when she was first of 36 morning workers. However, she can win from off the pace as well as she did out at Del Mar last November. Saez has some options to play the break and see how things go out of the gate, but I think she is a dangerous alternative to the favorite. Trainer Brad Cox is bringing #4 Ellen Jay (3/1) back from a big layoff having not raced since October 2024. The daughter of Constitution is undefeated since switching to the turf, which includes a stakes victory in her last effort. She does pick up a new jockey, Hall of Famer Joel Rosario, who is always a wizard in turf sprints. Much like Twirling Queen, she does not need the lead but does have good early speed to put herself in the mix from the start. Cox is outstanding bringing horses back from these types of layoffs, so this one feels very dangerous shipping up from Churchill Downs. Finally, #3 Bendetta (12/1) could pop on the new surface. Trainer Steve Asmussen had success turning Cogburn into a turf sprinter a couple years ago and is looking for a similar perk up from this daughter of City of Light. There is plenty of pedigree to suggest this will work as she is the half-sibling to a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Jockey Jose Ortiz is up for Asmussen who is winning at a 32% rate during the Saratoga meet. This one had a work over the turf leading up to this race and is a dangerous longshot to consider.

How I’m playing it: Future Is Now has done very little wrong and it feels dangerous to leave her off your tickets considering how consistent she has been. Yes, I will try to beat her with my top selection for some value as a win bet, but I am making sure she is on all my late sequence tickets. I do not think I have to spread much in this race, which is why I am willing to use a heavy favorite and one other horse so as not to lose too much of an advantage in my ticket structure and cost. I think Twirling Queen is a solid win bet or win/place bet given her price on the morning line and is a runner I think is only getting better.