Shoemaker Mile Picks

Taking a little bit of a swing against some favorites in the Shoemaker Mile with #1 Seal Team (6/1) for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Juan Hernandez. The jockey change is notable as traditional rider Umberto Rispoli is taking another mount in this race, but Hernandez and Mandella have plenty of success together winning 31% of the time over the last year when they team up. The son of War Front has done nothing but improve throughout his career while handling more challenging competition at every stage. He is a deep closer who will make one big run from the back, but there is plenty of pace in this race, led by Mandella’s other entry #9 Goliad (4/1) who will try to take them gate-to-wire, but there are plenty of other horses who like to be forward who will ensure honest fractions for Seal Team. His coming off a solid runner-up finish in the Thunder Road where he just gave himself too much to do turning for home and the race before that he finished behind Johannes who is one of the best turf milers in the world as evidenced by his own closer runner-up finish in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile. At his best, this horse can win, and he has shown remarkable consistency, in terms of speed figures, the last three times out. As for #4 King of Gosford (7/2), it is always difficult to bet against the combination of trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat on the turf. They typically have favorites, but they always run true to form. While King of Gosford has been a remarkably consistent horse, he also rarely produces eye-popping Beyer Speed Figures as he has slowly crept from running in the mid-to-high 80s to running in the low 90s. He is a Grade 2 winner and is 2-4 winning at the mile distance with another runner-up finish among those four starts. He has good speed but can pass horses. Prat will need to judge the early pace to determine where he needs to sit to have his best chance. I believe if he can track the pace from the third or fourth position, then he can have a free shot at the leaders turning for home. Meanwhile, #5 Formidable Man (3/1) is your morning line favorite and could be a bet against depending on how you view his last race. According to Beyer Speed Figures, his last race is a bit of an anomaly as he got a career-best 98 while the rest of his races are all in the 70s and 80s with one 91 three back when he won the Hollywood Derby (G1). He beat some nice horses in that last effort in the Frank Kilroe Mile (G1), but this feels like a tougher group. Still, he is a 2-time Grade 1 winner, so respect must be paid, particularly since jockey Umberto Rispoli gave up his mount on Seal Team to stay on this son of City of Light. Trainer Michael McCarthy has gotten this one working well and he should sit a tracking or mid-pack trip depending on the early pace scenario. I want to see him back up that 98 BSF with another solid performance because all his other efforts are not good enough to win here. Finally, #7 Mi Hermano Ramon (5/1) is a consistent horse who has knocked heads with some of the best out west for the last couple of years. The Mark Glatt trainee is jockeyed by turf wizard Hector Berrios. He got a little time off after disappointing as the odds-on favorite in the Frank Kilroe but should be back fresh and get a decent setup as he should also be sitting a tracking trip. He has not broken through for that defining Grade 1 win yet, but his best speed figures are absolutely good enough to win this race.