Saudi Cup (G1) Picks

Post vs. Saddlecloth Numbers

It’s the annual tradition of reminding North American audiences that in racing overseas the numbers on the saddlecloth do not necessarily match up with a horse’s post position. Therefore, please be aware that I am using saddlecloth numbers when referring to the horses running in the Saudi Cup, which are the numbers you’ll see on the racing form. The numbers that appear on their saddlecloth are typically assigned in alphabetical order and the post position draw takes place AFTER their saddlecloth numbers are given. Therefore, you might see a horse with saddlecloth #3 being loaded into gate #6, which is the case for Forever Young. The confusing part is when, by coincidence, the saddlecloth number and post position are the same simply by the luck of the draw, which is the case for Nevada Beach who has the #7 saddlecloth and will break from post #7. Why does the rest of the world do this to us? Probably as revenge for not adopting the metric system, but I digress.

Pace Scenario

Expect strong early fractions as the field of 14 make their way down the long backstretch with several horses vying for early contention such as North American runners #7 Nevada Beach, #13 Tumbarumba, and #2 Bishop’s Bay. You can typically expect a couple of the local horses to also show early speed with #6 Mhally being the strongest potential contender. Your two favorites, #3 Forever Young and #8 Nysos, will be settling just off the pace. It will be critical to pay close attention to how #3 Forever Young breaks, not only because he is the favorite, but he has had gate issues in the past. They appear to be mostly in the past, but he broke poorly two years ago in the Saudi Derby (G3) and on Saturday he will have nearly all the major speed to his outside, so it is imperative he breaks alertly to get a useful inside position behind the pacesetters. Look for Nysos and jockey Flavien Prat to slowly work their way over to the group down the backstretch while sitting mid-pack.

Analysis:

#3 Forever Young (7/5) comes into this race as the overwhelming favorite and defending Saudi Cup (G1) champion from last year’s thrilling stretch run over Romantic Warrior. The year before that he burst onto the international stage with an incredible effort in the Saudi Derby (G3) over future Grade 1 winners Book ‘em Danno and Bentornato. The amazing thing about Forever Young is his relentlessness. He just does not give up. If you watch last year’s Saudi Cup (G1), at the top of the stretch he has given up the lead to Romantic Warrior who is multiple lengths clear and gotten the jump. In 99.9% of races, it’s over. However, Forever Young put his head down and got to work and eventually reeled in his fellow international superstar at the wire. The prior year in the Saudi Derby (G3), Book ‘em Danno had a three-length lead late in the stretch and Forever Young, who refused to switch leads, somehow still managed to get there and best him. We saw that same relentlessness out of Forever Young in November at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) when, unlike in his two races in Saudi Arabia, he got to the lead in the stretch and then repelled the challenges of Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the latter of whom he refused to let by even in the gallop out. On Saturday he will have a target on him as every rider knows he is the horse to beat, but he can sit a few different trips, and the long homestretch and King Abdulaziz Racecourse will give him plenty of ground to track down the leaders. He has continued to grow and progress between each start and according to those on site looks as impressive as he ever has leading up to the big race. I believe we will witness history on Saturday as Forever Young becomes the first two-time winner of this race and stamps himself, even more than he already has, as one of the greatest horses of all time.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has two horses entered and holds the best chance to upset Forever Young on Saturday, but the question is which horse will do it. It’s notable that Baffert traveled over to Saudi Arabia for the race for the first time since it’s inaugural running when he had McKinzie. Personally, I prefer #7 Nevada Beach (5/1) who, according to Baffert and several onlookers, has glided over the track in the morning and taken to the deeper racing surface in Riyadh. The son of Omaha Beach burst into the scene winning the Goodwood (G1) over Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano. He disappointed going 1 ¼ miles in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) but should appreciate Saturday’s nine-furlong distance and one-turn configuration as he will be in the early mix for the lead. He is a perfect 3-3 at nine furlongs including a victory two back in the Native Diver (G3). Last time out he dueled his stablemate Nysos in the inaugural Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2) and was nosed out at the wire. I believe Nevada Beach is a horse on the rise and is the type of horse that could challenge Forever Young in the stretch and will have better early position than him. The best part about Nevada Beach is that while he has good early speed, he does not need to be on the lead to have success as he typically prefers to track just off the pace. In a recent interview Baffert mentioned that he is a “grinder” like one of his previous horses Country Grammer who won the Dubai World Cup (G1). He has only had seven career starts, but the fact Baffert sees fit to bring him to this world’s biggest stage and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to fly overseas for the mount is telling. This horse has loads of talent and, in my opinion, is the biggest upset threat to Forever Young.

The main Bob Baffert entry is #8 Nysos (4/1) has always had worlds of talent and is a neck away from being a perfect 8-8 in his career. His biggest issue has been staying healthy and racing on the track as the horse has had several gaps in his career. When he is on the track, he has never run a bad race and can sit a few different trips, though Baffert has indicated that he would prefer Ortiz Jr. have him sitting mid-pack down the backstretch. One thing that I believe is worth noting about Nysos is how tough his last two races have been. He was heavily favored in both the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and the Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2) where he went off as odds of 3/5 and 1/5, respectively. Based upon the tote board you would have expected him to roll to easy victories, but that was not the case as he had to gut out tough efforts over stablemates Citizen Bull and Nevada Beach in those races. The other concerning element about Nysos is that he has never run 1 1/8 miles before and I believe is best in between seven furlongs and a mile. The one-turn configuration might help him, but the deeper track on the course tends to favor horses who like a little more distance, which is a massive question mark for Nysos. The talent is there, but whether he can succeed at this distance, over this track, after two tough efforts at a shorter price is where I get hesitant in backing him.

While I could easily talk about Cigar Mile (G2) winner #2 Bishop’s Bay (6/1) in this slot, I do question whether the horse wants this distance against this caliber of field. Ultimately, I wanted to give a nod to #13 Tumbarumba (15/1) who is making his third start in the Middle East for new ownership group Wathnan Racing. The two-time Grade 3 winner was a model of consistency in the United States where he hit the board in 19 of 25 starts prior to shipping overseas for his new owners. He got off to a rocky start in Meydan with an eighth-place finish but ran well last time out in the Al Maktoum going 1 3/16 miles, which is notable since the son of Oscar Performance has typically struggled when going longer. He should only continue to improve in his third start overseas and, like Nevada Beach, will be prominent early. I do not think he is good enough to upset the field, but I do think he is an interesting horse to include at a price in vertical wagers.