Saratoga Week 2 Track Stats
Throughout the Saratoga meet, NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis will provide updated weekly track stats that provides insight into post time favorite performance and winning trip analysis. All data is disaggregated by distance, surface, class, track conditions, rail settings, and more.
Post Time Favorite Analysis
Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 31.8% rate* during Saratoga. Looking beyond just favorites, 60.0% of winners were 4-1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 20.0% of winners were 10-1 or higher come post time. The average winning payout for the meet is $14.98.
From a betting standpoint, a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.60 (-20% ROI) during the Saratoga meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 10 | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| 1-1 to 9-5 | 29 | 37.9% | 72.4% |
| 2-1 to 3-1 | 30 | 20.0% | 56.7% |
Average Field Sizes
- Average Dirt Field Size – 7.05
- Average Turf Field Size – 9.00
- Average Overall Field Size – 8.04
Favorites by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 38.8%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 16.7%
- Claiming race favorites – 16.7%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 27.8%
- Allowance race favorites – 33.3%
- Stakes race favorites – 41.7%
Favorites by Distance/Surface
- Dirt sprint favorites – 37.5%
- Dirt Chute favorites – 33.3%
- Dirt two-turn favorites – 25.0%
- Turf sprint favorites – 8.3%
- Turf route favorites – 39.1%
Winning Trips Analysis
Dirt Sprints Winners (n=24)
- 33.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 41.7% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 25.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Dirt Chute Winners (n=6)
- 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 83.3% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 16.7% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=4)
- 75.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 0.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 25.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Mellon Turf Sprint Winners (n=12)
- 16.7% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 25.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
- 58.3% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Mellon Turf Routes Winners (n=6)
- 0.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 50.0% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
Inner Turf Routes Winners (n=18)*
- 44.4% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 11.2% have been tracking within 3 lengths from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 44.4% have been more than 3 lengths off lead at ½ mile mark.
* Due to the dead heat in the Kelso (G3) on Sunday, July 5, there are two winning trips for that one race. Additionally, since the post time favorite was one of the two winners, they are counted in my post time favorite analysis.