MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEKRace Date: 12/28/2025

Santa Anita Opening Day P6 Sequence

Leg 1

Race 6: Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2) going 1 1/16 miles on dirt for 3+

Pick 6 approach: Single #1 Nysos (3/5) OR Single #3 Nevada Beach
Analysis: It is always scary to start a sequence with a single, but #1 Nysos (3/5) appears to be the safest bet in the stretch of races. I can sometimes be skeptical of a horse coming off a Breeders’ Cup effort as it can take a lot out of them and the connections have been pointing to that race all year…not the race AFTER the Breeders’ Cup. However, Nysos is a supremely talented runner who won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) off a four-month layoff and several gaps in his workouts. He would need to regress from his last three races to lose and his post on the rail is ideal given his running style and early speed. However, if you’re not convinced, then I still think you need to single, but just use Bob Baffert’s other horse, #3 Nevada Beach (2/1) who already bounced back from his Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) effort to win a graded stakes race and has a race to run back to that is at least competitive with Nysos. Either way, start skinny.

Leg 2

Race 7: $50K optional claimer going 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course for 3+

Pick 6 approach: Use #1 Amner Hall (7/2), but include two others
Analysis: The only non-graded stakes race in the sequence is tricky because #1 Amner Hall (7/2) is an obvious horse to include in your tickets, but I do not like the inside post going down the hill at Santa Anita. However, his last three races since coming to Peter Eurton’s barn are just too good to ignore. That said, I would include two other horses, with my top choice being #10 Hotrocket (8/1) with jockey Umberto Rispoli on the mount, which is a positive considering how well he rides the downhill turf course. This will be the first time they try him on the downhill and I tend to like horses cutting back from a mile on this course. I would also take #8 Mucho Del Oro (6/1) seriously as he good speed and previous success over the downhill turf course for trainer George Papaprodromou who is always dangerous with a price in these spots.

Leg 3

Race 8: La Brea (G1) going 7 furlongs on for 3YO fillies

Pick 6 approach: Stay skinny and consider singling #3 Five G (7/2)
Analysis: I love #3 Five G (7/2) in this race for trainer George Miller with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The decision to ship her to this spot off a nine-month layoff shows incredible confidence and the cutback to one turn is perfect for her given she has the speed to wire sprint fields and the stamina to wire route fields. Weaver is exceptionally with horses coming off a lengthy layoff and she could be better than she was before. If you’re going to throw in one or two others, I understand, but I would try to get around a horse like #5 Usha (9/2) for Bob Baffert who simply is not the same horse off Lasix to this point in her career. I prefer Baffert’s other two runners in this spot, #6 Brilliantly (6/1) with Flavien Prat in the irons and #11 Silent Law (10/1) with Joel Rosario aboard. Brilliantly needs to get faster but is second back from a long layoff and is working lights out while Silent Law feels like a horse that will enjoy the outside post and Rosario is excellent if he can control the pace. I’m not the biggest fan of morning line favorite #9 Formula Rossa (3/1) who is also coming off a layoff but regressed off Lasix in her only stakes effort, but understand including her.

Leg 4

Race 9: San Gabriel (G3) going 1 1/8 miles on turf for 3+

Pick 6 approach: Spread
Analysis: This is a tough race and one where you may want to use the most bullets unless you have a strong opinion. There is not much pace, so I think you must look at #8 Astronomer (9/2) and #9 Cabo Spirit (8/1) as serious threats to wire the field given the dynamics of the race. They both are training well and have figures to run back to that can win, but distance is a question mark, though the pace will help them. Meanwhile, #4 Stay Hot (4/1) can get the distance as he’s 4-5 hitting the board at nine furlongs in his career and 6-7 in the exacta on the turf at Santa Anita. Plus, he picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. I’m not the biggest fan of #3 Endlessly (6/1) who needs to prove to me that he can win again after being unnecessarily run in the Kentucky Derby (G1) despite obviously being a turf/synthetic horse. Horses like #7 Suchet (6/1) with Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario in the irons and #11 Nineeleventurbo (10/1) who should appreciate getting back to nine furlongs could both surprise and I feel are dangerous to leave off your ticket.

Leg 5

Race 10: Malibu (G1) going 7 furlongs on dirt for 3YO

Pick 6 approach: Use two or three Baffert runners
Analysis: Much has been made of this field of 10, having half of them running for the Bob Baffert barn. It’s not his fault he’s got the best collection of three-year-old middle-distance runners in the country, but trying to discern which one will win is difficult. It certainly feels like they would love to get either #9 Barnes (3/1) or #8 Cornucopian (7/2) a Grade 1 to add to their resume, which is understandable since they were high-priced purchases who can make money for the connections as stallions, but they need a Grade 1 to maximize that investment. They are both supremely talented and appear cranked as they each recorded a six-furlong bullet workout leading up to the race. There are interesting equipment changes to two other Baffert runners as #5 Midland Money (7/2) is getting blinkers added while #10 Goal Oriented (5/1) is getting blinkers off. Over the last five years, Baffert is 0-3 in dirt graded stakes races when adding blinkers. However, over that same period, he is 11-29 (38%) when he takes blinkers off in those spots. I’d lean toward Goal Oriented as another horse in include a result. I’m not as scared of his fifth runner #3 Madaket Road (5/1) who has never run a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and has only won a maiden race, but he has Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, so that’s never easy to throw off your ticket.

Leg 6

Race 11: American Oaks (G1) going 1 ¼ miles on turf for 3YO fillies

Pick 6 approach: Spread, but include some prices
Analysis: Tough race to close it out as there is not a standout in this group, but several horses make sense. Top two choice #10 Atsila (5/2) and #2 Will Then (7/2) are both talented with strong connections. Atsila is making her North American debut and draws an outside post, so I do not hate the idea of fading her to get a price. She has lost her last five races, but those have all been Group 1 efforts against the best three-year-old turf fillies in the world. Trainer Richard Baltas is 1-23 (4%) with foreign shippers the last five years. Will Then is a nice horse who will try to wire the field with jockey Flavien Prat in the irons. She could do it, but that might not be easy against this group. They are both nice horses, but I might only include one on my ticket. Two horses I like that are a better price are #3 Cliffs (6/1) and #9 As Catch Can (8/1). Cliffs, for trainer Cherie DeVaux is switching off Lasix and needs to get faster, but the fact DeVaux is shipping her here rather than running at Fair Grounds where she is largely based over the winter tells you her opinion of the horse. She’s got talent and is second back from a layoff. As Catch Can has raced a bunch for a filly her age (11 starts) and is coming off a stakes since over a soft turf course at Colonial Downs. I am not sure what the turf course will be rated at Santa Anita on Sunday, but there is a lot of rain getting dumped on Southern California right now, so I like a horse who can handle some cut in the ground.