Sands Point (G2) Picks

Pace: This will be one of the easier pace scenarios you will see in a turf race as there is no doubt #4 Macanga (6/1) will be the lone speed up front and likely separate from the field by several lengths in the early going. She is cutting back from 11 furlongs last time out where she probably got a little too far ahead of the rest of the field. I would imagine #5 Courbe (15/1) could be sitting second and essentially leading the vanguard to try and track down Macanga coming for home. Finally, #6 Style Points (2/1) has some speed and could be sitting third or fourth during the early stages of the race, which could be critical in case Macanga gets too comfortable up front, she could get the first crack at her of the main contenders. Expect an honest pace, but the question will be whether a horse can shake loose on the lead or not.

#6 Style Points (2/1) – The Christophe Clement trainee is coming off a thrilling dead heat victory in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs and is one of only two horses in the field to have a victory at the nine-furlong distance of Saturday’s race. The daughter of Oscar Performance has been a consistent runner having finished in the exacta in five of seven career starts with her only time missing the board being in debut last November. She came up a neck and a length short in her only other two attempts against graded stakes company, which came earlier this spring down in Florida. The reason I prefer her over the other strong favorite is her running style and success at the distance. Style Points is likely to sit a forward trip and when you have a horse that is loose on the lead like Macanga, I would prefer to have a horse that is sitting just a bit closer and has a crack at her turning for home rather than someone coming from the clouds who might not get there in time. Her success at the distance is also an advantage as she showed the ability to appreciate extra ground. The Clement barn is also heating up as over the last 14 days they are 4-7 (57%) winning stakes races at NYRA. One potential negative is that the horse loses her jockey from last time out as Manny Franco opts to run Spaliday for Chad Brown, which is not altogether surprising given how often Franco rides for Brown at Aqueduct.

#2 Spaliday (9/5) – The daughter of More Than Ready ran against some tough company last time out at Saratoga in the Lake Placid (G2) where she faced She Feels Pretty and Grayosh, both of whom are running at Keeneland this weekend in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). Prior to that start she picked up her first stakes victory in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth Park, though I am not entirely sure about the level of competition she faced that day. She is more of a deep closer than Style Points and could find herself double-digit lengths back at the half-mile mark with the way this race is likely to be run, which gives me some pause. She keeps getting faster in each start as her Beyer Speed Figures have increased in every effort since her debut, so it is possible we have yet to get to the bottom of how good she can be. Saturday will be her first attempt going nine furlongs and while she should be able to get the distance, I think it is fair to question that until she’s done it. If Manny Franco can get her moving from the back a little earlier than in a normal race then I think she certainly has a chance as there is no doubt that she’s faced tougher, though came up short against those.

#4 Macanga (6/1) – The spry daughter of American Pharoah only knows how to run one way, which is fast and early. Jockey Jose Lezcano will have the task of divvying up reasonable fractions on the front end to ensure she has enough turning for home. Her win four back against optional claiming company might come with a caveat as the favorite that day, Oversubscribed, had significant traffic trouble where her momentum was stopped around the turn. That said, her early speed is dangerous in a circuit where the jockey colony routinely gets lulled to sleep with slow fractions. Lezcano is always a good jockey on the frontend and tends to have a good sense of how to save enough horse for the stretch run. I like the trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is cutting the horse back to nine furlongs after running 1 3/8 miles last time out, which just felt like a bridge too far. There is no clear alternative speed in this race and if you’re going to try and beat the top two, then Macanga is the place to start because she could easily wire this field at a respectable price.

#1 Mo Fox Givin (8/1) – The hilariously-named daughter of Mo Town is making her first start in New York after spending most of her career in California and Kentucky. Now in the Mark Casse barn, she is looking to rebound after a poor showing at Kentucky Downs, though I am usually willing to draw a line through races at that track given the unusual nature of the course. Prior to that effort, she has been a relatively honest runner in listed and graded stakes races. She does not win often (2-12) but is stakes-placed four times and finished fourth in two other stakes races, so including her on your deeper vertical exotics feels like a good choice. The horse tends to be a deep closer and breaking from the inside rail is likely to be near the back of the field unless jockey Dylan Davis decides to try and be aggressive given the lack of any other pace presence outside of Macanga. The inner turf course at Aqueduct has played well to deep closers during the fall meet and she should get reasonable fractions given Macanga’s running style. If she can get the right trip, look for her to add value to your vertical wagers.