San Vicente (G2) Stakes Picks

While the San Vicente (G2) is not an official Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race, it will be interesting to see whether one or two runners emerge from this to run in the next round of preps in California. The obvious pick is #3 Buetane (6/5) for trainer Bob Baffert who ran a distant second in the Hopeful (G1) to Ted Noffey the last time we saw him on the track. Obviously, Ted Noffey’s subsequent juvenile campaign flatters his form as he went on to win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on his way to likely being the unanimous 2-year-old Male Champion. However, during that stretch, Buetane has been surpassed by some of his stablemates like Litmus Test and Blacksmith as having more upside for the Run for the Roses. That said, the son of Tiz the Law should not be discounted from the Kentucky Derby trail just yet as the former $1.15 million purchase clearly has some lofty expectations. He broke his maiden impressively at first asking this summer at Del Mar before shipping across the country for the Hopeful (G1). Trainer Bob Baffert gave him a little freshening in October, but the horse has been training steadily since October 27, so fitness should not be an issue. His dam side pedigree does point toward sprinting as he is out of a Forestry mare (Taboo) who was a sprinter and has largely produced sprinter offspring. You can find more distance under his second dam (Dream of Summer) who was a Grade 1 winner going long on the dirt. He has the right young sire to move him forward though as Tiz the Law is producing 20% winners in dirt routes. All of this is moot if he can’t win on Saturday, but I believe there is plenty of reason to believe he will run a big race. Baffert’s #1 jockey Juan Hernandez hops back aboard and the horse possesses good early speed but does not need the lead. I suspect Baffert will have the horse laying a joint second next to his stablemate and behind Doug O’Neill’s speedster, which should be a perfect spot. While he does not possess any advantage over the field in speed figures, I believe he will move forward, and the fact Baffert has been patient with him bodes well.

However, if you’re looking for an alternative to the chalk, and I can’t blame you for that, then consider these choices. I’m personally higher on morning line third choice #2 So Happy (3/1) for trainer Mark Glatt who is coming out of a debut maiden victory last time out where he was assigned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). The son of Runhappy is clearly meant for sprinting, but looks professional rating off the pace and pulling away going 6 ½ furlongs at Del Mar. He should handle the stretch out to seven furlongs without any issues and has enough early speed to put himself in the mix. It is also encouraging that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith stays aboard. The other logical alternative is trainer Doug O’Neill’s runner #4 Acknowledgemeplz (5/2) who likely has the best speed in the field and will lead them down the backstretch. The horse is cutting back to one turn after tiring badly last time out in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) where he tried two turns for the first time. O’Neill is also adding blinkers that should only accentuate the early speed this son of Bucchero still possesses. While two turns always seemed like a daunting proposition, Bucchero is an outstanding sprint sire, and the horse has every right to bounce back to that field-best 93 BSF he was assigned in his maiden breaking score. The problem with that performance was that he was losing ground and saw his lead diminish in the final furlong when going 6 ½ furlongs against fellow maidens. He will have a significantly more talented group chasing him this time and I’m not convinced the horse will bounce back to that one big effort.