Sam F. Davis Picks

Pace: There are several horses stretching out from one-turn races with others getting equipment changes that could lead to a strong early pace. From the inside, #1 Camp Hale (20/1) will want to get good early position and has outstanding speed as he’s shown in all three starts. Meanwhile, #3 John Hancock (3/1) won in debut in gate-to-wire fashion going six furlongs, so you know he has legitimate speed, though he is switching off Lasix for this race. Additionally, #4 Dr Ruben M (12/1) has shown good speed to stalk the pace and get to the lead while going two turns in California and last time out in the Springboard Mile, which has turned out to be a productive prep race. The big pace influence will be from #6 Owen Almighty (2/1) who is trying two turns for the first time while getting blinkers added. He has great early speed and should be able to get to the front if jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. wants him there. While there is sufficient early speed that could cause a pace meltdown, it is also important to remember that Tampa Bay Downs can have a speed-favoring main track on big days, so make sure to pay attention to how conditions are playing early in the card.

#2 Treaty of Rome (6/1) – It is rare to see a Chad Brown horse in a stakes race without jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. or Flavien Prat on board when both are riding on the card, but Dylan Davis retains the mount on Brown’s son of Uncle Mo. He should be able to sit an ideal trip on the rail just behind several of the early pace setters and his breeding suggests that he will appreciate going longer than a mile. He is the full sibling to Donna Veloce who won finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and in the Starlet (G2) before winning the Santa Ysabel (G3) going two turns at Santa Anita, so it is promising to see the pedigree is both precocious and able to handle distance. He finished second last time out in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes to Guns Loaded. If you watched the race, the horse was flying late and making up ground on a leg-weary Guns Loaded who subsequently ran last in the Holy Bull (G3) last week. I do not think that reflects poorly on Treaty of Rome simply because I thought Guns Loaded was a distance limited horse and that is what we saw last Saturday when he tried to stretch out. I expect the opposite thing to happen this Saturday where Treaty of Rome only improves with distance. Additionally, it is important to point out that he was able to close in the final furlong in the Mucho Macho Man despite soft early fractions, which means he does not need a nuclear pace to meltdown in front of him to track down the leaders. Dylan Davis has been riding beautifully at Gulfstream Park during the Championship Meet and stays aboard a horse he rode well last time out. The horse provides outstanding value in a great betting race.

#6 Owen Almighty (2/1) – It would be hard to keep the morning line favorite off your Late Pick 5 tickets on Saturday as the Brian Lynch trainee is coming off an effort where he crossed the finish line first in the Pasco Stakes, but was DQ’ed to last due to interference with Rookie Card. That was the son of Speightstown’s first race in over three months and he looked sharp with today’s jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. up on the mount. The only blemish in four career starts in a runner-up effort to Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois (G3) where the winner got a gate-to-wire victory. He adds blinkers on Saturday, which should only increase his early speed and keep him focused (and avoiding another disqualification). The key will be whether he handles the two turns. All his victories have come sprinting, and this will be his first time going all the way around while facing significant pace pressure on the frontend. While he has shown the ability to pass some horses, those were instances where he was stalking less than a length from the lead, so there are questions to answer if he must rate a little further back. While it could be viewed as helpful that he draws to the outside of the other main speed in the race, it also means there is a chance he could get caught wide given that several of those other runners are going to determined to carve out fractions up front in the early going. Ortiz Jr. is at his best when tracking the pace, so if he can get the horse to relax while going a new distance, I think it will be helpful. My hesitation picking him up top is a combination of value and pedigree. I do not love Speightstown’s going long as I think he is more of a sprint sire and the numbers bear that out as his offspring have started four times as many sprints as routes with an average winning distance of 6.4 furlongs compared to that of Uncle Mo whose offspring has an average winning distance of 7.5 furlongs.

#3 John Hancock (3/1) – The son of Constitution and Scribbling Sarah is named after the man who famously signed the Declaration of Independence. American History aside, there is plenty to like about this last-out maiden winner who cruised gate-to-wire in debut at Tampa Bay Downs. His debut was professional while being assigned an 81 Beyer Speed Figure and he fits the profile of stablemate Tappan Street as a debut maiden winner who was stepped up into the Derby picture by Brad Cox in only his second start. We saw Tappan Street run a competitive second in the Holy Bull (G3) last Saturday and John Hancock picks up jockey Flavien Prat, which is always a plus move. However, he is switching off Lasix after being allowed to have it in debut. Additionally, he represents a first for Brad Cox over the last five years as Cox had never put out a first-time starter at Tampa Bay Downs before January when John Hancock debuted. You could look at this one of two ways. On the positive, the horse has experience over the track and will know what to expect with familiar surroundings while stepping up in class. On the negative, debuting the horse at Tampa Bay Downs might have shown Cox’s hand a bit at where this horse ranks in his barn as his top horse are running at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds with his “second string” horses running at Oaklawn and Aqueduct. Still, he has talent and is the half-sibling to Speech who won the Ashland (G1) on the Oaks Prep trail back in 2020.

#1 Camp Hale (20/1) – If you’re looking for a bomb who could upend thing in the race, Camp Hale might be a maiden but strikes me as a horse who has a real chance and will be, at the very least, a horse I include in my deeper vertical wagers. Trainer Ian Wilkes entered the Kentucky Derby chat last week as his horse Burnham Square won the Holy Bull (G3) and Camp Hale feels like another promising runner who is stretching out to two turns for the first time. The son of Mo Town has outstanding early speed and should be near the lead while saving ground on the inside rail. There are certainly some questions of whether Mo Town’s can get two turns as we saw another Mo Town (Mo Quality) fade badly last week in the Withers Stakes. That said, Camp Hale’s dam was a dirt route winner who was sired by Awesome Again, so there is plenty of distance pedigree underneath. What makes me think he can surprise is the competition he has faced to this point in three career starts. In debut he finished second to upset winner David of Athens in a big-time MSW race at Keeneland that produced future winners Patch Adams, Ain’t No Disco, and T Kraft. The second time out he ran behind Guns Loaded who might have faltered in the Holy Bull (G3) but is a stakes-winning horse who could be very dangerous later this year going around one turn. Last time out he was second again to a well-meant Todd Pletcher runner Grande. Yes, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined in each start, but they are still strong enough to compete against this group and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. knows all about giving a horse a ground-saving ride after what he did last year in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Mystik Dan. He feels like a horse who could really move forward and might take some money from that morning line price, but still be good value.