Robert B. Lewis Stakes Picks

Overview: It is hard to imagine a non-Bob Baffert-trained horse winning the Robert B. Lewis on Sunday as he has three of the five entries, and the other horses entered have little shot at ending up in the winner’s circle. It is fair to be critical of the short fields in Derby/Oaks preps in California given the political climate and the business decisions by those who run the tracks. That said, the race is still worthy of analysis because Bob Baffert gets some of the best horses in the country, knows how to win the Kentucky Derby, and at least one or two of these horses are going to wind up in the starting gate.

#2 Citizen Bull – The reigning Two-Year-Old Champion Male and winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) is an impressive specimen. The $675,000 son of Into Mischief has collected a pair of Grade 1 wins the last two starts in gate-to-wire fashion under the guidance of jockey Martin Garcia. We have yet to get a complete picture of how strong the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) will come back this year as Jonathan’s Way came back to run second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) while two Baffert runners had varied performances in their next race with Getaway Car running a respectable second in the Los Al Futurity (G2) while BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up, Gaming, has been awful in his two subsequent starts. However, Garcia is 3-3 aboard Citizen Bull, and the horse looks so physically well-developed that you know he will appreciate distance and has the speed to get out up front. He is also training lights out with two bullet workouts leading up to the race including the customary six-furlong workout that Baffert always puts his top runners through before a big spot. Expect a big effort and for Citizen Bull to continue stay atop the Derby points rankings.

#3 Rodriguez – The son of Authentic represents the best chance to beat the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Champion Two-Year-Old Male. He debuted in November against stablemate Romanesque and could not quite measure up going 6 ½ furlongs. The good news is that Romanesque came back to run a very impressive second to yet another Baffert monster, Barnes, in the San Vicente (G2) where the horse was asked to do very little and did not get the easiest trip. Earlier that same day, Rodriguez broke his maiden in eye-popping fashion going gate-to-wire at the mile distance while earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Jockey Juan Hernandez stays aboard as Baffert’s #1 jockey in California, which is a promising sign. There are two legitimate questions that Rodriguez must address, which is that his effort last time came out with Lasix and that he is facing winners for the first time. Regarding Lasix, Baffert is fine with those conditions, though not as eye-popping as you might think with three-year-old last out maiden winners switching off Lasix is dirt routes (2-10 over the last five years). He draws well to the outside of his stablemates so it’s possible he can just sit off the flank of Citizen Bull, but it will still be an uphill battle for him to get the win.

#1 Madaket Road – The “other other Bob” is jockeyed by Frankie Dettori and will mostly likely sit just behind the early speed of Citizen Bull and Rodriguez while saving ground on the rail. The son of Quality Road debuted in the Bob Hope (G3), which shows you the level of confidence Baffert had in the horse and he backed it up with a solid runner-up effort. However, the winner that day, Bullard, regressed next time out and finished third in the San Vicente (G2). Nevertheless, the former $650,000 purchase got his picture taken next time out when running six furlongs against maiden company while earning an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. He wore blinkers for the first time in that effort and continued to keep them on here. He has been working well with a series of five furlong runs in the morning to build up his foundation for the first time going two turns. The concern is that he is the slowest of the three Baffert runners and given the way Santa Anita plays and the short field size, this feels like it has a potential to be a merry-go-round race with Madaket Road being a little further back.