Robert B. Lewis Stakes Picks

Pace Scenario: While the skeptic would say the pace scenario is dependent upon the jockey instructions that Hall of Fame trainer gives his riders for his trio of horses entered in today’s Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race, the reality is quite different. Only #1 Desert Gate (6/5) has good early speed from the Baffert contingent, though #2 Plutarch (4/1) is training forwardly, but that has not translated to elite speed in the pace. Expect #6 Robusta (15/1) and #7 Secured Freedom (6/1) to join Desert Gate near the front. The pace should be honest though not unreasonable, and Santa Anita can carry early speed. Robusta is the only horse that likely needs the lead with all the other speed horses showing the ability to rate in the past.

Analysis: To start, I really like #1 Desert Gate and have been a fan of this horse since his maiden breaking win in debut, but I’ll take a little swing against him with #7 Secured Freedom (6/1) for trainer Tim Yakteen. The son of Practical Joke debuted at Del Mar last November and was in “chase mode” most of the race behind eventual winner So Happy who came back to win the San Vicente (G2) in his next start with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). Secured Freedom came back to win his next start going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita and showed great professionalism sitting off the pace and then easily handling the field in the stretch under the ride of Kazushi Kimura. I like the fact the horse showed the ability to rate, pass horses, and finished with interest going 6 ½ furlongs, which makes me think handling a mile is not out of the question. He is a Virginia-bred and you don’t see many of those running at Santa Anita, but he’s got a rock-solid pedigree for today’s distance and Yakteen has been known to upset his former boss, Bob Baffert, more than a few times in stakes races in California. The horse was assigned an 88 BSF in his last effort, so his figures fit in this spot and 6/1 feels like a generous price to take on the morning line.

As mentioned above, I’m a huge fan of #1 Desert Gate (6/5) who comes into this race with some pressure as Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is looking for some Kentucky Derby contenders. Yes, he’s got Litmus Test on ice until March, but thus far Baffert has not had many horses “pop” on the Derby Trail, and we saw one of his runners, Buetane, turn in an unremarkable third-place performance Friday in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. However, Desert Gate appears to be the real deal as he is sired by one of my favorite stallions, Omaha Beach, and while he has yet to win going two turns, he ran strong second-place efforts in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the American Pharaoh (G1). He was slated to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but Baffert gave him some time off and he has come back with a strong series of works, though it is notable he lacks a single bullet work, which is typically the signature of a Bob Baffert runner. Still, Baffert’s top jockey, Juan Hernandez, stays on the mount and the horse should be controlling inside speed, which is an ideal spot at Santa Anita. You’d be a fool to fade this horse too far off your tickets.

The Baffert horse that’s generated the most “buzz” is #2 Plutarch (4/1) as he has put in a strong series of workouts leading up to his return to the dirt. The son of Into Mischief is out of Grade 1 dirt route winner Stellar Wind, so distance should not be an issue. However, Baffert has tinkered with this horse repeatedly during his young career switching the colt between turf and dirt. He lacks great early speed and appears to have a nice turn of foot, so turf makes sense and he eventually broke his maiden last time out on the grass at Del Mar. Over the last five years, Baffert is technically 1-12 moving horses from turf-to-dirt in graded stakes races, but the one victory was via disqualification, so this is not a move where he has traditionally had success. Newly arrived jockey Florent Geroux is up on the mount, which is interesting as two other regular Baffert riders, Kazushi Kimura and Hector I. Berrios, landed elsewhere, which might be a giveaway as to their thoughts on the horse. All that said, the horse ran a big third-place effort in the American Pharaoh (G1) so he can handle two turns on dirt against this level of competition, but the mixed singles on surfaces and new jockey do raise some questions on a horse that might be getting bet down due to the strong morning workout tab.

Finally, #4 Intrepido (7/2) has the best resume in the field as he owned the sole Grade 1 of the group of seven runners. The Jeff Mullins trainee came off his American Pharaoh (G1) victory with a poor performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he was beaten by 10 lengths. He has been working regularly in the mornings getting back into shape for his 2026 debut and while there is a lot to like about the son of Maximus Mischief, I am concerned that he is not a horse that has outstanding early speed or an overwhelming late kick. In a race with an honest, but not overwhelming pace, he is someone who I think will be sitting fourth or fifth early and might struggle to track them all down at the mile distance. Despite his sprint influence up top, I think he might be better going a little longer just so he can grind away at the leaders. He has a nice closing spurt as we saw in his Grade 1 victory, but whether he can replicate that at a short distance over this track is a question mark at a short price.