River City Stakes Picks

The River City (G3) is the feature race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and it has delivered with a competitive field of horses that have shown consistent form. I am going with a bit of a price as I love what #4 Encino (5/1) brings to the table for trainer Brad Cox with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. The son of Nyquist has always been an honest runner going back to his victories on the Derby Trail last year in the Battaglia Memorial and the Lexington (G3). Earlier this year at Horseshoe Indianapolis he managed to complete the trifecta and become a stakes winner on all three surfaces as he took the Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes on turf. He rarely runs a bad race, and his two career starts on the lawn have been encouraging, as was his effort last time out at Presque Isle on their all-weather surface. Typically, Encino needs to make the lead to have a chance at winning, but in his last race he was able to mid-pack behind modest fractions and closed against a decent group of runners. The fact Cox attracts Ortiz Jr. for the mount is encouraging as is his post position since he draws to the outside of the other main speed presence, #2 Epic Ride and #3 Quatrocento. Oritz Jr. can rate off that pace during the early going before getting first crack at the leaders. The horse is in rock solid form and should sit an ideal trip. He has won six of 11 starts, so he likes to get his picture taken, and his added versatility with his running style makes him an attractive choice at an acceptable price.

It's hard not to appreciate #6 Chasing the Crown (7/2) who has finished in the top three in 15 of 19 career starts, including six victories. The Mike Maker trainee is coming off consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) performances at Gulfstream Park and Kentucky Downs, despite those two races being eight months apart. At Gulfstream Park, he ran third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) behind Spirit of St. Louis and Integration. Despite going to the bench of nearly the entire turf seasons, he came back to win a $500,000 handicap at Kentucky Downs off the layoff in which he showed off his patented late kick. The pace dynamics in this race should absolutely set up for him to make a strong run in the late at the end with jockey Tyler Gaffalione remaining aboard. The biggest concern is that for most of his career he ran with the assistance of Lasix and while he has run well off Lasix, he has yet to secure a win running without the medication. Saturday could be the day as he breaks from a good post, can get plenty of pace to run at, and is second back from his lengthy layoff. Maker is so dangerous in these spots and I will be including the horse in my Late Pick 5 sequence, but I think you can try to beat him in some of your win wagers and exacta bets as he could be the type to just always come up a bit short in the big moment despite consistent efforts against graded stakes company.

Another runner with rock solid form is #9 Lagynos (9/2) who nearly won twice in less than ten days at Kentucky Downs earlier this year. The three-time stakes winner got the job done on August 28 in the Tapit Stakes in Franklin, Kentucky before coming back on September 6 to run a strong second, despite breaking from post #13, in the Mint Million (G3) where he finished behind Epic Ride. The horse has plenty of experience breaking from outside post positions and has a versatile running style in which he can closely track the pace or come from further back depending on what the situation dictates. There is some intrigue as to who will ride him since legendary jockey Frankie Dettori is listed on the mount but announced this past weekend that he was retiring from riding in North America and will finish his career with a few races in South America. The good news for Lagynos is that he runs well for all his jockeys as his five wins have come with five different riders (Cristian Torres, Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat, Edgar Morales, and Jose Ortiz). The 9/2 morning line price is more than fair and he should work out a useful trip sitting mid-pack behind the early speed. His workouts have been tremendously leading up to this race and he has not run below a 90 BSF on the turf in over a year. During that same time, he hit the board in seven of eight races with the only exception being in the Fourstardave (G1).

Finally, #2 Epic Ride (8/1) is a nice horse, but I do worry about him coming under intense pace pressure that might ultimately cause him to yield coming down the stretch. The son of Blame wired the field in the Mint Million (G3) two back before failing to establish an early presence in the Turf Mile (G1) last time out where he finished a distant eighth. Much like #4 Encino, he has proven to be proficient on all three surfaces with stakes wins over the turf and synthetic while being Grade 1-placed on the dirt. The issue on Saturday is that Epic Ride will need to go straight to the front under the ride of Luan Machado and while I love The Ax Man (Machado’s nickname), it’s a tough spot since #3 Quatrocento and #4 Encino will be hounding him early and even a horse like #5 Wolfie’s Dynaghost (10/1) has good early speed to stay in the mix. It is a lot to ask for him to hold on for nine furlongs, particularly since his best distance on turf appears to be going one mile. I think he is a useful horse to include at a price in your deeper vertical wagers, but I will be excluding him from my Late Pick 5 ticket as I do not love his chances to pull it off in gate-to-wire fashion.