Risen Star Stakes Picks

Pace Scenario

There is not a significant amount of speed in the Risen Star, but enough horses like to be close to the pace that I would expect honest, albeit uncontested, early fractions. Perhaps the horse with the best early speed, #5 Chip Honcho (6/1), is getting an equipment change to having his blinkers off, but it’s worth noting the horse wired the field in his maiden-breaking effort without blinkers. Meanwhile, a horse getting blinkers added, #7 Courting (6/1), has only ever won on the frontend and could show significantly more speed than his last effort in the Remsen (G2). Behind them, expect the duo of #3 Carson Street (8/1) and #4 Paladin (8/5) to stay close to the pace setters, but neither horse needs the lead to win, though Carson Street is more likely to vie for early contention if he breaks well from a further inside post.

Analysis

My #1 Kentucky Derby contender since December has been #4 Paladin (8/5) and I am not getting off the bandwagon for his 2026 debut. Aside from the fact I am a proud alumnus of the mighty Furman University Paladins (Greenville, SC), I like the horse for more reasons other than his name. The son of Gun Runner will travel a similar path to the Kentucky Derby as Sierra Leone did two years ago for trainer Chad Brown. The two have had strikingly similar careers to this point and share many common characteristics as sons of the same sire who sold for a hefty price tag to the same connections and trainer. Paladin, like Sierra Leone, will travel to the Risen Star (G2) for his third start after competing in the Remsen (G2). Unlike Sierra Leone, he is coming off a victory in the Remsen (G2) after going by Renegade in the stretch and will look to retain his perfect record. His victory over Renegade has been flattered to an extent as that horse came back to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last weekend quite convincingly over a mediocre field of contenders. The more important part was that Renegade improved his Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) ten points from his effort in December at Aqueduct. As for Paladin, one other striking difference between he and Sierra Leone is his running style. The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner was a deep closer, which made for thrilling finishes, but also created a minimal margin for error. Paladin, meanwhile, is quite handy. He has good early speed but has shown the ability to race kindly and track the pace behind horses, which gives Saturday’s jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, plenty of options at the break as he can get the horse to relax into a rhythm sitting behind the early leaders. I love Paladin’s work tab to this point, which has been the model of consistency and expect for him to run a big race. The biggest advantage he has over the field is there is no projection for how he will travel nine furlongs. He already passed that test with flying colors in the Remsen (G2) and quite frankly looked like he hit his best stride in the last 100 yards. I believe he is the real deal and will sit an ideal trip behind horses I do not think will enjoy the longer distance.

The horse with the highest price tag, and perhaps the most expectations, in the Risen Star (G2) is #7 Courting (6/1) who is the full sibling to four-time Grade 1 winner Clairiere and sold for an eye-popping $5 million. The son of Curlin has yet to dazzle but should appreciate more ground and a key equipment change might do the trick. Trainer Todd Pletcher is adding blinkers to infuse a bit more early speed and focus into his high-priced runner, which makes sense as the horse’s only victory came in gate-to-wire fashion at Aqueduct in November in his second career start. After that victory, Pletcher stepped Courting up to the Remsen (G2) where he didn’t get off to the best start while being shuffled back to nearly last. However, the colt stayed on and passed horses to finish fourth. The bigger issue is that he has largely run the same BSF in each of his three starts and has technically regressed, by a single point, in each of them, which is not the sort of trajectory you want to see coming into a big race. All that said, I like the fact Pletcher gave this horse a little time off as Curlin’s often need extra time to develop and he has been working much stronger in the mornings down at Palm Beach Downs in preparation for his 2026 debut. Expect Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to get the horse out of the gate in good order and in a forward position. He benefits from drawing outside all the other speed in the race and should be able to easily move over into a stalking position going into the first turn. I think Courting is a horse that we have yet to see the best from and Saturday could be a big breakout performance.

#2 Golden Tempo (3/1) could be up against it from a pace perspective as the Cherie DeVaux trainee is a late-running type in a race that fails to feature much pace. To be fair, the Lecomte (G3) winner did not need strong fractions in his last start to get the job done as he mowed down the field in a thrilling stretch run that is eerily similar to the way Sierra Leone gobbled up ground in the Risen Star (G2) two years ago. Golden Tempo is an interesting case where his visuals and his speed figures do not necessarily line up. When you watch his debut victory at six furlongs and his Lecomte (G3) triumph, the horse looks like a world beater, but he only was assigned a 78 and 81 BSF, respectively, for those efforts. He will need to get faster on Saturday should he want to overtake a horse like Paladin in the stretch who, unlike some of his previous foes, is unlikely to be backing up as he approaches the wire. Golden Tempo’s jockey, Jose Ortiz, said the horse broke well in the Lecomte (G3), but just lacked early speed to get involved in the race. You never want to force the horse to do anything out of its character, but it would be nice to see the horse show some more interest in the early stages of the race. The son of Curlin is out of a graded stakes winning Bernardini mare (Carrumba) and should appreciate the added distance on Saturday but will need to work out the right trip. The good news is he breaks from an inside post position and should be able to save ground around both turns before tipping out at the top of the long Fair Grounds homestretch. The track configuration should serve him well as the Fair Grounds stretch will give him every chance to get to the leaders, but at 3/1 it is a short price to take on a deep closer who needs to get faster against better competition.

In my fourth spot, I thought about using #5 Chip Honcho (6/1) who should be able to get an ideal trip on the lead or closely tracking the pace, but the horse has run nearly the same speed figure in each of his four previous starts and now gets his fourth jockey in five starts on Saturday. Therefore, I’m leaning toward #3 Carson Street (8/1) at a slightly better price underneath. The son of Street Sense has a female family that mostly points toward sprinting, but I think he can do okay going nine furlongs on Saturday. He broke his maiden going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds two back and was moved up to the Lecomte (G3) in his next start where he got to the lead in the homestretch only to get overtaken by Golden Tempo and Mesquite late. Perhaps it is notable he broke his maiden over a wet track, but I think he is more than a wet track specialist. On Saturday, Carson Street should be controlling inside speed, which is an ideal spot for a horse trying to get a longer distance as he will be on the rail going into the first turn either on the lead or sitting in the pocket just behind Chip Honcho. I would prefer for him to the front under jockey Ben Curtis who is as good as there is riding on the lead at Fair Grounds. Curtis is excellent at controlling the pace and knowing exactly when to ask a horse for a little more throughout the race. He could get tired and overtaken late, but I expect he will be a horse that is worth using in vertical wagers such as trifectas and superfectas.