Remsen Stakes Picks

As the great Yogi Berra said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” That’s certainly the way it feels looking at the 2025 Remsen as it is eerily akin to the 2023 version of the race. In 2023, you had Chad Brown with Sierra Leone who was a $2.3 million son of Gun Runner coming off a maiden victory going a mile at Aqueduct facing off against Danny Gargan’s Dornoch who was the son of Good Magic who had a previous runner-up finish against stakes competition. This year, Brown and Gargan are back, but with new horses that fit the exact same description. Brown brings #2 Paladin (3/1) who is the $1.9 million son of Gun Runner who won, via disqualification, in debut at Aqueduct going a mile. Meanwhile, Gargan has #11 Talkin (5/1) who broke his maiden at first asking prior to finishing second in the Champagne (G1) last time out. If we use 2023 as a playbook, Gargan will get the win on Saturday and that’s the way I’m leaning despite being higher on Brown’s horse long term. Talkin will have to work out a trip from an outside post, but jockey Kendrick Carmouche should be able to use some speed to cross and clear a portion of the field going into the first turn. He is a horse who has been flattered recently as he broke his maiden over Stradale and Further Ado. The former has gone on to break his maiden and recently finished third in the Ed Brown Stakes while the latter got his first win next time out and recently won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) to garner 10 points toward the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate. In Talkin’s second start he stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Champagne (G1) and finished second to runaway winner Napoleon Solo. It was a good effort considering how wide he was around the turn and the fact he kept gaining and bested a horse like Universe who we saw come back to run second in the Street Sense (G3) and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). There should be a fair amount of pace for him to close into, and the Good Magic pedigree is proven to get the Classic distance in addition to the fact Talkin is out of a Tiznow mare and should relish nine furlongs.

Brown’s Paladin is a serious horse and my #1 Kentucky Derby contender at this point, so why don’t I have him winning? Well, I think he might take a little more time to develop and I wasn’t thrilled about the 3/1 morning line price in a very competitive field. Additionally, while he looked good in debut, he was beaten across the wire by #9 Renegade (5/1) and while that horse was disqualified, it was not that egregious and it’s questionable, in my eyes, whether it changed the outcome of the race. All of that said, the pedigree and connections scream Kentucky Derby and the fact the trainer, jockey, and ownership group had such resounding success with Sierra Leone makes me believe he will be a major threat in future preps and should run well Saturday. To be clear, I am not fading him as he will be on all my Late Pick 5 tickets but just trying to find a horse that could be better value as my top choice.

The horse that crossed the wire first against Paladin is Todd Pletcher’s Renegade and made a very impressive run when stretching out to a mile after his 6 ½ furlong debut at Saratoga over the summer. The won of Into Mischief is out of a Curlin mare, Spice Is Nice, who was a graded stakes winner going nine furlongs, so there is every reason to expect this one can handle more distance. Additionally, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is coming back up to New York for the day to take the mount, which indicates just how live this runner is for Pletcher who has won the race twice before. Pletcher knows how to train horses to get more distance and is one of the best at spotting his horses in the right races during the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The horse does come from off-the-pace and should sit a similar trip to Talkin, so I view him as a legitimate win contender and a horse I would be including on my tickets.

Finally, it’s hard to ignore Pletcher’s other horse, #6 Courting (9/2) who is the full sibling to MGSW Clairiere. The $5 million son of Curlin cost a pretty penny because of how accomplished his big sister was on the track and he should certainly appreciate distance as well. His Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) from his first two starts are nearly the same, but he ran differently in each. In debut, he sat toward the back of the field and tried to rally but was unable to mount a serious threat going a mile. Last time, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez put him on the lead, and he was able to control the pace up front and pull away as the 1/5 favorite in a four-horse field. There is no denying the horse is bred to be a monster going two turns and could show dramatic improvement. My concern is that he did not beat much in his last race and was able to control things up front in a way he will not be able to on Saturday. When he sat further back, he was only able to make a mile rally. I like the horse and moving forward he could be serious, but I want to see him show the talent to match his price tag first.