Remsen Stakes Picks

Pace: The pace of the Remsen (G2) is a bit unclear simply because so many of these runners are still figuring out their most effective running style. I would expect jockey Junior Alvarado to get #1 Tux (3/1) out of the gate quickly and near the front as the Bill Mott trainee is stretching out and flashed good speed in debut. Similarly, #5 Keewaydin (6/5) will also try to replicate his effort last time out when he got up front early and pulled away late. Those are likely the fastest two horses early, but a horse like #3 Poster (5/1) is a huge X-factor given that he is running on dirt for the first time and did show some speed going two turns on the turf. The fractions he ran on the turf are legitimate, so I believe his speed will likely transition to the new surface, but maybe not quite fast enough to get to the front early and will more likely sit a tracking trip. While I do not expect the pace to be unreasonable, the bigger question will be whether these two-year-old colts can get the distance.

#1 Tux (3/1) – Bill Mott’s son of Tapit was impressive in debut drawing off to win by 3 ½ lengths over a short field at Aqueduct in November. In that regard, he fits the profile of Sierra Leone who finished second in this race last year after breaking his debut a month earlier at The Big A. However, any comparisons to last year’s ridiculously strong Remsen field that went on to produce a mind-boggling five Grade 1 victories, 10 graded stakes victories, 17 stakes victories, and 32 total wins should probably be put on hold. Mott’s other two-year-old Derby contender, Sovereignty, won the Street Sense (G3) back in October, but Tux has a nice profile as well. The Tapit pedigree will always be a plus as the legendary sire has an average winning distance of 7.6 furlongs for his offspring, which is the top in the field. He showed good speed in debut at 6 ½ furlongs and finished strong, which provides confidence that he can appreciate the added distance. Jockey Junior Alvarado will want to make sure he breaks cleanly from the gate, but he has the advantage that the horses to his immediate outside are not particularly fast, which should help ensure a smooth start where he can save all the ground on the rail. Depending on how aggressive Keewaydin is out of the gate with Dylan Davis aboard, Tux could find himself on the lead or sitting that perfect pocket trip just behind the leader. Over the last five years, Mott is 28% winning with a $3.65 ROI with two-year-old graded stakes races on dirt including twice (Just F Y I and Lake Avenue) when they went from sprint-to-route for the first time. Mott is not one to place his horses in races where he believes they are overmatched and stepping this one up immediately into graded stakes company and having his #1 jockey on the mount all point to this runner being live.

#4 Studlydoright (9/2) – If not for his running style, the son of Nyquist might have been my top pick. I love the Maryland-bred and have since I first saw him win the Tremont Stakes at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival weekend. When I saw him in the paddock, I was struck by his size compared to the others of his generation as he is a big horse built for two turns. I love the pedigree of Nyquist up top out of a mare by Curlin. His worst effort was in the Hopeful (G1) where he had legitimate trouble at the start and a bad trip, but otherwise, the horse has hit the exacta in every other race including last time out winning the Nashua Stakes. He earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and would need to likely replicate, or slightly improve upon, that number to win on Saturday, but it is believable that he will improve with distance. He has the pedigree and build to suggest two turns will be where he is at his best. His biggest issue is his running style as he prefers to come from off the pace and with limited early speed signed on for the Remsen (G2), there is a concern that he might not get the best setup. I was pleased to see that he stayed close to the pace last time out. Granted, it was a short field, but they were setting decent fractions, and he was only two lengths back at the half-mile mark. Expect jockey Xavier Perez to try and carve out a similar trip this weekend. Trainer John Robb might not have a national reputation, but anyone who followed Mid-Atlantic racing knows him well and Robb is not one to campaign his horses above their class. He seems to have realized early on that he has a special horse here and one that could provide you with the best value in the race.

#5 Keewaydin (6/5) – Chad Brown’s son of Instagrand is an intriguing runner and I certainly understand his strong favoritism in this race, but I think it is worth trying to beat this runner. Let’s start with his pedigree as his sire, Instagrand, is a first-crop sire who has been off to a mediocre start but is a far cry from fellow first-crop sires like Vekoma or Complexity or McKinzie. Now, in a limited number of opportunities, his progeny has run well going long on the dirt, but this will be a big question from going a one-turn mile versus going two-turn nine-furlong races. On the track, he has been impressive as he came out of the Tip Top Thomas maiden race where he finished third by a head. We saw that come back as a productive race with Tip Top Thomas running second in the Champagne (G1), second-place finisher Rookie Card came back to win two races later, fourth-place runner Sovereignty came back to win the Street Sense (G3), and obviously Keewaydin broke his maiden next time out. This is all positive. However, digging into Keewaydin’s maiden breaking race does race some red flags. First, it was a five-horse field where he won as the 1/5 favorite by less than two lengths while under an easy ride. Additionally, it is concerning that the only horse close to Keewaydin that day, Volt, came back to lose by 26+ lengths in his next race and his Beyer Speed Figure plummeted back to earth and it looks more like his run that day was an anomaly, which begs the question of whether the figure that day was artificially high. He has good speed and should be out front, but there are legitimate questions about whether he can handle two turns. He will be a short price and it is certainly not out of the question that he wins, but what price will you be willing to take?

#3 Poster (5/1) – It is hard to know what to do with trainer Eoin Harty’s son of Munnings who is trying dirt for the first time on Saturday. On one hand, he is undefeated and handled two turns in both of his starts. He also has jockey Flavien Prat up on the mount which always provides bettors with a boost of confidence. On the other hand, he is trying dirt for the first time and has never even worked out over the surface as he has recorded every single official workout over the all-weather track at Turfway Park. I typically do not like Munnings as a two-turn influence for a sire, but it is interesting that he and Tux simply have inverted pedigrees. Poster is sired by Munnings and out of a Tapit mare whereas Tux is sired by Tapit and out of a Munnings mare. I much prefer the latter pedigree when stretching out to two turns and nine furlongs. However, Harty just won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last week with First Resort who switched from turf to dirt. The difference, of course, was First Resort broke his maiden over dirt and ran second in the Saratoga Special (G2) prior to switching to grass for one race. As for Poster, he should sit a tracking trip behind the early speed of Tux and Keewaydin, but he will need for his Beyer Speed Figures on the turf to improve with the surface switch and I am not sure that is in the cards.