Red Smith Stakes

Pace: The pace scenario in a New York turf marathon is, unsurprisingly, murky. It would seem that #1 Curbstone will go to the lead as he has done is before when he was going shorter on the turf. Prior to his last start he generally sat further back in turf races, but when stretching out to two miles at Far Hills, he went straight to the lead for trainer Tom Morley. Perhaps this is a new strategy, which could serve him well here as there is no other clear pace presence. #3 Pioneering Spirit has flashed some speed at times while sitting more of a stalking trip while #4 City Man is likely to be forward as well given that he has solid early speed and is stretching out from shorter route races. Finally, look for #9 Master Piece with jockey Jose Lezcano aboard to break well and be forward. In addition to wanting to save ground while going three turns, the short is coming back from three starts out in California where she showed good early speed while running against the likes of Johannes and Gold Phoenix.

#2 Integration (2/1) – Trainer Shug McGaughey’s son of Quality Road has had an interesting career and might still be figuring out where he best slots within the various older turf horse races. He started his career off with three straight wins including the Virginia Derby (G3) and the Hill Prince (G2) before stepping up to face the big boys in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1). He had some trouble in the lane that day, but finished fifth, but continued facing Grade 1 company in his next two starts. In July, he took a slight class drop to face listed stakes competition at Colonial Downs and rolled the field over soft turf before finishing second to Nations Pride in the Arlington Million (G1). He ran fine in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, but not every horse takes to the ground there. This feels like a gettable field for him as he welcomes jockey Flavien Prat aboard for the first time. Prat can be aggressive on the turf and the horse has shown some speed in different spots in the past. With the lack of early speed in the race, I would not be surprised to see Prat have this horse in a prominent position during the early going, particularly with an inner post position where he will have the advantage of saving ground. The talent is there, and this feels like the type of field he can beat. Is he a Grade 1 horse? I do not think he is there yet, but he is a quality runner who has several past races that are good enough to beat this field.

#4 City Man (10/1) – One of the more intriguing runners. Trainer Christophe Clement is putting his New York-bred against open graded stakes company for the first time since last May. He does have a victory in the Fort Lauderdale (G2), so he is not exclusively a state-bred winner. However, he has not yet won a race in 2024, and he does not appear to be in the same form he was last year when facing open company. So, why pick him second? First, Clement is not the type to enter his horses in races where they are overmatched, so the son of Mucho Macho Man must be showing him something in the mornings to put him in this spot. Second, he is stretching out from regularly running at nine furlongs or less. The stretch out to 11 furlongs might serve him well as he has good speed going shorter and could potentially be one of the leaders at a longer distance. When jockey Joel Rosario is aggressive, good things tend to happen, particularly on the turf. Rosario could let this horse show some more natural speed and get to the front. Remember, while #1 Curbstone tried to wire the field last time out, it was also in a race going two miles where the pace was much slower. It is also interesting the horse is turning back on about two weeks rest, which is a rare move for Clement, but over the last five years, he has won 20% of his races when bringing a horse back on 10-15 days rest.

#9 Master Piece (5/2) – The winner of last year’s edition of this race, the Rick Dutrow Jr. trainee has had an interesting 2024 as he has racked up the frequent flyer miles. He started the year in Gulfstream Park before going to Keeneland and then Aqueduct. After winning the Fort Marcy (G2) at The Big A, he headed out west and ran three straight graded stakes races at Del Mar and Santa Anita against the top turf horses on the West Coast, which included Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) runner-up Johannes. He finished a close third in the John Henry (G2) in his last start and now has migrated back east for a start. Outside of his attempts against Grade 1 company, he has been highly competitive against this caliber of horse, either winning or finishing on the board nearly every time. He will have to contend with an outer post position while going three turns. Look for jockey Jose Lezcano, who was aboard him for his win in last year’s race in which he drew the #10 post, to save ground out of the gate by either pushing him to a tracking trip or dropping out the back and attempting to make one big run. He can win both ways, but I do think it would be better if he was sitting more of a mid-pack trip, but it might be a jumbled-up group due to the likely sluggish pace scenario. He is far too consistent at this level to leave off your vertical wagers and offers good value as a win bet if he can work out the trip.

#5 Limited Liability (5/1) – The other Shug McGaughey runner is coming off a dominant win at Kentucky Downs in the Nashville Gold Cup in which he smashed The Grey Wizard who came back to beat #1 Curbstone in his next start at Far Hills. However, the son of Kitten’s Joy has been a hard horse to trust over the years to get the job done winning with a 4-18 career record. Prior to the win last time out, he had not won a race in nearly 17 months and that last victory was against allowance company at Keeneland. Kentucky Downs had a notable speed bias this past meet and jockey Frankie Dettori rode that to victory as Limited Liability wired the field while going over two miles. However, he is not going to the lead on Saturday and as a result, I do not like his chances. He is an honest runner (12-18 in the money) but is likely to get overbet due to that big effort last time out. McGaughey has been aggressive with him in training as he has been firing off bullet workouts leading up to this race, so perhaps there is a new strategy for getting him up front in these spots. While distance will be no issue, I wonder if 11 furlongs is too short as he has never even hit the board in two previous attempts going this far. He might excel doing 12+ furlongs and I am willing to leave him on the outside looking in for several of my tickets.