Rebel Stakes Picks

Pace: Expect a strong early pace in the Rebel as you have a few horses who will want to contend for the early lead starting with #11 Speed King (6/1) who took the Southwest (G3) in gate-to-wire fashion last time out and only has one way to win, which is to do it up front. It leaves him vulnerable to a hot pace scenario as last time out he benefited from a couple of top contenders getting off to poor starts. That is unlikely to be the case this time and you can expect #8 Innovator (15/1) to send hard from his position as he is another horse who likes to be leading going into the first turn and is coming out of a close third-place finish in the Lecomte (G3). Aside from those two, a horse like #9 Smoken Wicked (8/1) is stretching out again and has outstanding early speed for sprint races, which should only be accentuated when facing a field of dirt routers. Finally, you must imagine that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be aggressive with #5 Madaket Road (9/2) for trainer Bob Baffert as the horse also possesses strong early speed. With several horses pressing the pace, expect a strong pace and the opportunity for an off-the-pace winner.

#3 Sandman (4/1) – The ultimate “trip play,” Sandman had an abysmal start to the Southwest (G3) last time out and still managed to rally for a strong second to Speed King who was lone speed. The $1.2 million son of Tapit clearly has some expectations for trainer Mark Casse, and he has shown plenty of potential in his six career starts between breaking his maiden at Saratoga to looking professional in a $125,000 optional claiming race two back over the Oaklawn Park track. So long as jockey Cristian Torres gets him out of the gate cleanly, expect him to sit a track or mid-pack trip, in which case he should appreciate the pace scenario developing in front of him and be able to show that closing kick. He does not have a sudden burst of acceleration like Chancer McPatrick, but rather a slower grinding style, which I tend to prefer as the distances of these races stretch out. His trajectory reminds me a bit of Simplification, a horse I mention constantly and who I loved a few years ago on the Kentucky Derby trail. If you remember, Simplification blew the break in the Holy Bull but ran on well to finish second that day to a little horse named White Abarrio. He bounced back to win his next start, which was the Fountain of Youth (G2). Similarly, Sandman blew the break in a lower-tiered prep race and now comes back to make amends in a 50-point Kentucky Derby prep race. The final point I’ll make is that Sandman has gotten progressively faster each of his last few starts, which bodes well for being able to take another step forward with a clean trip.

#13 Tiztastic (8/1) – You can tell trainer Steve Asmussen is getting his game face on for the Kentucky Derby (G1). Last week, he won the Risen Star (G2) with Magnitude at 43/1, but sadly that horse is already off the Derby Trail with a bone chip in his ankle. This week, he boots both of his sons (Erik and Keith) off their mounts in lieu of more trusted riders now that the stakes get bigger. Erik is getting replaced by Flavien Prat on #6 Publisher (20/1) who is still a maiden, but who I think might vastly outrun his odds Sunday. However, I’m more intrigued by jockey Jose Ortiz taking over for Keith Asmussen on Tiztastic who, despite the dreadful post position, has plenty to like. The son of Tiz the Law has yet to win on dirt, but has hit the board in each of his last three starts against graded stakes company going long. He finished ahead of Sandman three races back in the Street Sense (G3) when he was bested by Bill Mott’s Derby contender Sovereignty. He followed that up with a third-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) behind First Resort and Jonathan’s Way. It is hard to tell how productive that race will be since the top two have yet to run back. Then last time out in the Southwest (G3) he got off well but had some trouble in the stretch while having a tight trip and still managed to finish third. Ortiz takes over and he has experience with the horse, having ridden him to victory on the turf in his second career start. Much like Sandman, the horse has decent enough speed to ensure a mid-pack trip, but the key will be whether Ortiz can work the horse over toward the rail going into the first turn to save ground. He can afford to be hung a little wide and it would certainly help should three or four horses send hard to get to the lead to get the field strung out. I would imagine he will sit mid-pack, but he has shown the ability to pass horses and handled the surface at Oaklawn Park just fine. In a very open race, he presents some value.

#1 Coal Battle (10/1) – The winner of the Smarty Jones has never lost on dirt as he is a perfect 4-4 with three stakes victories. However, the smaller connections of trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas with a son of Coal Front often gets overlooked, which is good news for us if you like to find value. His Beyer Speed Figure from the Smarty Jones victory was only an 84, but it was a visually impressive effort over a six-horse field. Admittedly, the second-place runner, Mo Quality, did not run back well in the Withers where he was a distant fourth while third-place finisher Kales Angel went back to sprinting and won a stakes race next time out. The way in which Coal Battle won was impressive as he seized the initiative from the start and took them gate-to-wire while getting stronger late in the stretch. Briley decided to give the horse a little break after that effort, and he has gotten in three workouts leading up to the Rebel (G2). Do not be thrown off by the maintenance works as Briley tends to work his horses more slowly and note that his final workout before the Smarty Jones victory was a glacial 1:06.4 five-furlong drill in the morning. What makes Coal Battle stand out is that he can win a few different ways. He can lead, track, or close, which is a rare skill for a young horse to possess, yet he has shown a varied running style in his four dirt starts. The inside rail might provide a challenge as he does not want to get buried on the inside or shuffled too far back, but he possesses enough speed to get into a decent position either tracking or sitting mid-pack to ensure he can save ground.

#5 Madaket Road (9/2) – Talk about an overlooked Baffert horse. Those who cover the sport spend more of their time talking about Citizen Bull, Barnes, Rodriguez, Getaway Car, or even Romanesque. Meanwhile, Madaket Road picks up top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. as Baffert sends the son of Quality Road to Hot Springs, AR to collect some Derby points. Quality Road’s are an interesting group as they can do a little bit of everything, but I never feel like they’re outstanding at any one thing. Madaket Road has only raced three times after debuting in the Bob Hope (G3), where he finished second to fellow Rebel (G2) entrant #10 Bullard (5/1) who I think also has a very good chance to run well. Baffert dropped the horse back into the maiden ranks for a second start where he won easily before finishing third to Citizen Bull and Rodriguez in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) earlier this month. It is a relatively ambitious placement to ship the horse across the country on three week’s rest, but he has given him the patented six-furlong bullet workout leading up to this race as he went the distance in 1:12 flat on February 16. Baffert knows how to ship to Oaklawn Park and has had plenty of success with that move over the years. The horse will be going two turns for the first time, which might be an issue given the sprinter influence on the dam side of the pedigree, but it also means the horse will have outstanding early speed. Expect Ortiz Jr. to be aggressive from the start and get this horse into an ideal tracking spot sitting just behind the early pace of Speed King and Innovator. If he can get the distance, he is a horse that could be dangerous given the connections and running style that should suit the track well.