Razorback Handicap Picks

Pace: The pace scenario for the Razorback might be in the eye on the beholder and could hinge on what jockey Flavien Prat does with morning line favorite #2 Banishing (7/2) who is coming off three straight wins sprinting for trainer David Jacobson. The horse typically comes from off the pace in those contests, but his sprinter speed might take him near the front in this two-turn race. One must expect #4 Alexander Helios (10/1) to go to the front for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. though the horse can stalk or even track the pace based on his previous efforts. Additionally, Brad Cox’s #3 First Mission (5/1) is likely to be keen out of the gate coming back from a long layoff and he has always preferred to stalk the pace, so he should try to be close to the front as well. The other major pace player is #10 Cooke Creek (12/1) with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. up on the mount. He has not shown the same sort of early speed the last two times out, but if Ortiz Jr. can get him to break well, expect him to make a run for the front to clear ground and get toward the rail going into the first turn. I can understand how someone could rate this race as having a fast pace, but it might also be a situation where a jockey can get on the lead and some of the other speed horses are content to closely stalk as they do not need the lead.

#5 Skinner (6/1) – The five-year-old son of Curlin has always been a horse I believe had the ability to run in the upper-tier of the division going back to his three-year-old campaign. The former John Shirreffs trainee was a California staple, but his late-running style often played against the tracks at Santa Anita or Del Mar that tend to favor early speed. However, he came back from nearly a one-year layoff last November and won the Native Diver (G3) in his second start back before being transferred to the barn of trainer Cherie DeVaux who had him working at Fair Grounds before entering him in the Louisiana Stakes (G3). He showed a solid effort that day dealing with a wet track for only the second time in his career while running third to Hit Show and Komorebino Omoide. While he admittedly hung a bit in the stretch, the race has come back strong as the runner-up, Komorebino Omoide, just ran a very close second to Hall of Fame in the Mineshaft (G3) and improved his Beyer Speed Figure by five points. On Sunday, Skinner will get back on a fast track and while I do not expect the pace to be blistering, I do expect the way Oaklawn Park’s track plays should suit him as coming from off the pace going two turns is nothing new. Jockey Jose Ortiz remains aboard while he and DeVaux are coming off an exceptionally hot weekend at Fair Grounds during Risen Star weekend. DeVaux has been training this horse very forwardly leading up to the race, which was accentuated by a 47.4 second four-furlong bullet work that was first of 104 at Fair Grounds on February 14. It leads me to believe you might see slightly better gate speed out of him in the early going and that his conditioning is there to make a strong push late at a good price.

#3 First Mission (5/1) – The Brad Cox trainee has always been held in high regard going back to his Lexington (G3) victory just a few weeks ahead of the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in 2023. However, he has faltered against elite competition in the division having never finished better than fourth in a Grade 1 and often losing by double-digit lengths. He is a more consistent horse at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level where he has racked up victories in the Lexington (G3), Essex (G3), and Alysheba (G2). He took a step up after that Alysheba (G2) performance at Churchill Downs, but things clearly went awry after his dismal showing in the Whitney (G1) as he went to the bench for over six months. Cox has been bringing him back for the last two months since early December and he has 10 official works prior to making his 2025 debut, so conditioning should not be an issue. He has been firing off several five-furlong bullets leading up to Sunday and jockey Florent Geroux knows how to ride this horse who likes to be very close to the early pace but does not need the lead. He is likely at his best when he is tracking the pace and has a close target at which to run but might get a little lost on the lead if he is put up front. I would imagine Cooke Creek or Alexander Helios will make it easy on him to sit second or third in the early going. The only question is whether he is ready to fire off the bench because otherwise he checks the boxes as a multiple graded stakes winner who has an effective running style for connections who are always dangerous.

#10 Cooke Creek (12/1) – Mike Maker’s son of Uncle Mo is a horse that made a rapid ascension for the new barn after Maker claimed him for $40,000 back in May of last year. Since then, the horse reeled off consecutive victories in $80,000 optional claimers and a very close runner-up finish to Hit Show in the Lukas Classic (G2). He was a non-factor the last two times out in the Clark (G2) and Louisiana Stakes (G3), but you could explain both of those efforts by looking at the fact the horse failed to get to the lead during the early portion of the race. While he does not explicitly need the lead seeing as he has successfully won tracking the early pace, he fails to fire when he is stuck back in a mid-pack trip. He has run well off Lasix as evidenced by his second to Hit Show in the Lukas Classic (G2) and, of course, that horse has won four of his last five while defeating Skinner last time out. Most significantly, Cooke Creek picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Expect him to be aggressive out of the gate to ensure the horse is on the lead or sitting a close second to either Banishing, Alexander Helios, or First Mission depending on who decides to send from the inside. The distance on Sunday should be ideal and while he has run well over a wet track in recent starts, most of his victories have come over a fast track, which should be the conditions he faces on Sunday. At a big price, he is a horse that has shown the ability to run with the top horses in the division and has been training well down at Fair Grounds leading up to this race. He is a legitimate price option, particularly if you start to see the track favoring speed.

#2 Banishing (7/2) – I am not sure what to do with David Jacobson’s runner who has reeled off three straight wins and took four of his last five. He has found new life since leaving the barn of Brendan Walsh and coming to Jacobson who cut him back to sprinting and has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go from high 80s to topping 100. However, now the son of Ghostzapper is stretching back out and I am not sure if we should expect a reversion to his pre-Jacobson days or whether he is simply a new horse who can throw up triple-digit Beyers at will. I am betting against him in this race, but it would be unfair to not mention him given his ability to sit a few different types of trips. He traditionally comes from off the pace when sprinting, but I will be interested in what new jockey Flavien Prat decides to do out of the starting gate due to who is around him. First Mission and Alexander Helios are to his direct outside and both of those horses have outstanding early speed. Should Banishing sit behind those two and secure a pocket trip on the rail, he risks potentially getting shuffled back a little further than he might like as a result. If he sends and uses his natural speed, then he could end up burning things up on the front end while being unable to sustain a strong pace while going a longer distance than he has in recent starts. Over the last five years, Jacobson is 0-3 in dirt route graded stakes races and only 1-18 in dirt graded stakes races overall. If you tell me Banishing is your post time favorite, he is a strong play against as I believe there are other horses with a better percentage chance to win this race that will be provide better odds, but if he floats up to 5/1 or higher, then he becomes slightly more playable. Ultimately, I have a hard time believing he is going to be a player in the handicap division in 2025 and if I am playing deeper vertical exotics, I would much rather include a horse like #1 Crupi (6/1) who I believe has a better chance to finish fourth than does Banishing.