Raven Run Stakes Picks

The Raven Run (G2) features an incredibly deep field of three-year-old filly sprinters, and one can ponder whether the winner or top finishers decides to wheel back on short rest to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, which is not as loaded of a division as it has been in years past. One reason I enjoy the three-year-old sprint division for both the boys and girls is because you see a great many horses cut back from routing after the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1), respectively. It's why I landed on #11 Quietside (4/1) as my top choice. The daughter of Malibu Moon has not run since finishing sixth in this year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) for trainer John Ortiz. She has been working consistently at Churchill Downs since early August and will be fit for Saturday as she’s logged 10 official workouts since she started back on the training track. Ortiz is outside with these types of cutbacks as well. Over the last five years, he has been hitting at a 29% when cutting a runner back from route to sprints on the dirt coming off a 60-180-day layoff. Moreover, he has shown the ability for his horse to fire on the cutback in big spots as he’s winning 38% of the time when he has cut back a horse from route to sprint on the dirt in stakes races with successes like Doc Sullivan, Brightwork, and Winfinity. From a pedigree standpoint, Quietside should appreciate going shorter. While she was able to pass the two-turn test winning the Honeybee (G3) and the Fantasy (G2), her dam, Benner Island, was a graded stakes winning dirt sprinter and whose three career victories all came around one turn. Tactically, she has the sort of speed that should allow jockey Jose Ortiz to spot her in a perfect tracking position as she did when she was sprinting to start her career as a juvenile. It is promising that Jose Ortiz took the mount as he rode her to those two Oaks Prep victories and had at least one other mount in this race that he chose to pass up to ride Quietside. I believe she will fire off the bench and is a great alternative to the favorite.

Stop me if you’ve heard about a three-year-old Bill Mott trainee bred by Godolphin and jockeyed by Junior Alvarado. No, I’m not talking about likely Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) favorite Sovereignty, but his stablemate #9 Ragtime (3/1). The daughter of Union Rags has a long way to go before she can be in the same category as the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, but she has put together an impressive resume in only four career starts having easily won the Dogwood (G3) last time out after just missing out in the Test (G1) at Saratoga. She is a beautiful runner and there is little to knock on a horse that is a neck away from being a perfect 4-4 in her career. However, in the last couple of races, she has shown a propensity to be sitting toward the back of the field. While the seven-furlong distance will help her start tracking down fatiguing horses late, it also exposes her as being potentially pace dependent. There should be sufficient speed battling in the early going of the race, but Keeneland can be a conveyor belt that can make it difficult on closer to get past the leaders in the stretch. Her two 96 Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) certainly qualifies her to be the morning line favorite, but her 86 BSF last time out is hardly outstanding when compared to the rest of the field. If she runs back to that, or even improves a few points, she will be susceptible to an upset. At a short price, she feels like a horse you could try to beat, and Mott is 0-7 with his entries at Keeneland to this point in the Fall Meet.

Trainer Phil Bauer might not have the reputation among casual racing fans as he is not often highlighted in the Triple Crown run, but he is a spectacular trainer whose horses are always fit and ready to run their best race. #1 Delightful Claire (10/1) is like Ragtime as they are both graduates of four races while registering mid-90s BSFs. The daughter of Thousand Words is also notable for her sales price as her sire only stands for $12,500, yet she sold for 20 times that as a yearling when she gaveled at $250,000. After dazzling at Saratoga to break her maiden, Bauer stepped her up against graded stakes company in the Prioress (G3) where she finished second to Praying who backed that victory up with another graded stakes win in the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) two weeks ago at Keeneland. As for Delightful Claire, she stretched back out to seven furlongs in her last effort when she finished third in the Dogwood (G3) behind Ragtime and Strong State. She can win a few different ways as she has outstanding early speed, but also the ability to pass horses in the stretch. Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario will have to work out a trip from the rail without getting her burned out up front or shuffling her too far back depending on his tactics. At double-digit morning line odds, she is absolutely worth including in your vertical wagers and I would hardly be shocked to see her pull the upset.

Another filly who could upset is #10 Simply Joking (8/1). The daughter of Practical Joke was always stretching things to the limit when she went two turns as her pedigree pointed to sprinting. She broke her maiden at six furlongs but put in a big effort to win the Silverbulletday Stakes the following month before coming off the bench to challenge Quietside in the Fantasy (G2) where she finished a game second. Her Kentucky Oaks (G1) performance was only her fourth career start and while she faded badly, she is getting back to what I believe she was always destined to do, which is sprint. She was transferred from trainer Whit Beckman to Michael McCarth since her last race and comes into Saturday’s contest firing off impressive workouts at Santa Anita prior to shipping to Kentucky. McCarthy is not great at Keeneland over the last five years (1-21) and has not had a great deal of success with runners making their first start in her barn after a trainer change (7-78). However, it is hard to discount a horse that has been training so well since late August and gets legendary jockey Frankie Dettori on the mount. She has blazing speed but showed in her debut sprint that she can come from off the pace. Expect Dettori to use the further outside post to his advantage and have her sitting off the top flight down the backstretch.