Rachel Alexandra (G2) Picks

Although I heard that some other major sports event just took place in New Orleans, the city is about to heat up even more as the best is yet to come in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) this weekend. This is one of my favorite prep races for obvious reasons such as it being named after one of the best fillies ever, but also because of how many other great fillies have won this race. Four out of the last eleven winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1), the most recent being Pretty Mischievous in 2023.

This year’s running is headlined by the perfect four-for-four Brad Cox trainee, Good Cheer. Before we dive into her, it’s important to note the scratch of the #3 Ballerina D’Oro. Although this won’t affect the pace dynamics, the scratch of the 7/2 runner will result in shorter prices on some other runners.

It’s difficult to get around your 6-5 morning line favorite #2 Good Cheer, as she is undefeated in all of her starts, including 3 two-turn wins at Churchill Downs. Not only did she win, but she won dominantly. In her last start in the Golden Rod (G2), she came from off the pace to run down Eclatant who then cut back to 7F to win the Forward Gal (G2) in her next start. She also put away Quietside in there, who has never run a bad race against some of the best fillies that we’ve seen in this division so far. Good Cheer is returning for the first time since the Golden Rod (G2), but Brad Cox has a 38%-win percentage returning off a 75–100-day layoff at Fair Grounds, and 22% at all tracks. He also has many other fillies to choose from to win this race, but this one fits the bill and is working well leading up to this.

As it is clear that the #6 Simply Joking is likely to be up on the lead, someone is likely to put some pace pressure on her. Although there isn’t too much gate speed in here, I expect the #1 Anonima to break more aggressively as some tactics could change with her breaking from the rail for the first time and getting Jose Ortiz aboard. Gowells Delight and Aledean could surprise with how they break as well, and a race that sometimes looks like lone speed could turn into a pace duel between Simply Joking and another runner. Simply Joking is a horse I’d like to see stretch out effectively before I trust her pedigree. She is a half-sister to Drum Roll Please who attempted to route but has run his best races at a mile. It's notable that Drum Roll Please is sired by Hard Spun whose progeny love any ground they can get, but Simply Joking is sired by Practical Joke who does his best work with sprinters or milers.

As #2 Good Cheer is my top choice, I’m looking to get a price underneath with the #7 Bless the Broken for trainer Will Walden who is 12-1 on the morning line. I mentioned when I picked this horse underneath in the Silverbulletday Stakes that her pedigree is known to handle an off-track, being bred on the Uncle Mo - Tapit sire line cross. We could see another wet track on Saturday, and this filly seems to be heading in the right direction as well. She has improved in each of her last three starts in terms of her speed figures, and she ran a decent race at this distance at Churchill Downs. It’s positive to see them run her back in a spot like this.

Another filly I’m interested in that should improve here is the Kenny McPeek trainee that he scouted for $17K as a yearling. The #1 Anonima (6-1) broke her maiden going two turns against Take Charge Milady, who we saw come back to win the Martha Washington. She improved off that race with another win in her next start at Fair Grounds which is positive to see, and her 78 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort puts her in a nice spot to take another step up against this field.

Will Good Cheer be able to make it 5 in a row on Saturday, or will Simply Joking be able to wire the field? Reach out on NYRA Bets to give us your opinion on this week’s highly anticipated Rachel Alexandra (G2).