Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Picks

Analysis: This year’s renewal of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) is a competitive one with a strong field of three-year-old turf fillies. The curious part of the race is the shadow cast by Nitrogen who won the Alabama (G1) earlier this summer and just finished second by a nose in the Spinster (G1) against older fillies and mares. Prior to switching to the dirt, Nitrogen was a four-time stakes winner on the turf who was largely considered the best three-year-old turf filly until she was bested in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) by #9 Fionn (3/1). The Brad Cox trainee upset Nitrogen that day with a strong finish and is now a three-time graded stakes turf winner as she followed up her upset in Saratoga with by winning the Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational (G3) at Kentucky Downs last time out. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard the previous two efforts and stays aboard on Saturday, which is always positive. The daughter of Twirling Candy has a big turn of foot and comes from off the pace but does not need a pace meltdown. She is a perfect 2-2 at the nine-furlong distance and handled over 1 ¼ miles at Kentucky Downs last time out as well. Her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) have been competitive all season and while she took a slight step back from her career-best of 91 by being assigned an 85 for her victory at Kentucky Downs, she’s shown a propensity for getting to the wire first, no matter the caliber of competition. The fact Nitrogen has shown such class on the dirt speaks well to Fionn’s victory over her this summer and that she could be the new class of the three-year-old turf filly division.

One filly who has not quite shown that same ability is #5 Opulent Restraint (4/1) for trainer Chad Brown as the daughter of Dubawi has lost her last three races by just over a combined three lengths. She was nabbed in the final stages in both the Memories of Silver Stakes and the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) before fading a bit more in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2). She has been bested by both Fionn and morning line favorite Laurelin the last two times out. She will need to turn the tables, and it will be up to Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario to do it. Rosario gets back in the irons and will need to take advantage of a lack of pace in this race to put the horse on the lead. The frustrating part about Rosario is that he is a brilliant rider up front but can be infuriating when he opts to strangle a frontrunner to mid-pack or worse. However, there is every opportunity for him to steal this race on the frontend by walking the dog against a field that lacks a clear challenger in the early going. Lush Lips used to race up front, but her trainer Brendan Walsh has clearly changed tactics in the last three races as she sits mid-pack now. Perhaps the connections decide to switch things up to prevent Opulent Restraint from being lone speed, but the pace dynamics favor the Chad Brown runner. Brown has hit at 26% in non-Breeders’ Cup Grade 1 races at Keeneland over the last five years and could deliver at a price in this spot. I would not be leaving this horse off my Late Pick 5 ticket.

I will try to get around morning line favorite #2 Laurelin (5/2) who has never done anything wrong in her five-race career as she maintains a perfect record. The Graham Motion trainee has won between a mile and 1 3/16 miles while showing the ability to track the pace or close from the back of the field. She has handled yielding and firm turf during that time and Saturday’s jockey Kendrick Carmouche has been aboard for four of the five wins. Motion is a phenomenal trainer, particularly on the turf, but is 0-12 at Keeneland over the last five years in Grade 1 races, though half of those were Breeder’s Cup races and he has only had one runner during that time went off under 5/1 odds at post time. That said, Laurelin has only faced one graded stakes field before, which was last time out when she was assigned a 94 BSF while winning the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) over Opulent Restraint. She has beaten nice runners throughout her career like fellow Saturday entrant Candy Quest as well as future graded stakes winner Five G. Her rider, Carmouche, has won a pair of turf Grade 1s this summer in Saratoga on Deterministic, but rarely travels outside New York and the Mid-Atlantic. Finally, Laurelin’s 94 BSF last time out was a significant improvement over her previous race, and I wonder if we see a similar regression Fionn scored after she achieved her top BSF two back.

If you’re looking for a price in this race, there are two horses to consider with #3 Simmering (10/1) being one of them for trainer Ollie Sangster. The Euro invader has not won since being a juvenile, but she does possess a Group 2 victory and has run against top competition like Lake Victoria and Desert Flower as a three-year-old. Still, her TimeForm Ratings have not been consistent. She does own a local workout over the turf, which I view as a positive, but there are still too many questions marks. As a result, I lean toward #7 Destino d’Oro (8/1) for trainer Brad Cox who went off as the favorite last time out in the Dueling Ground Oaks (G3) at Kentucky Downs. I am willing to draw a line through that effort as Kentucky Downs can often produce anomalous results and horses bounce right back into top form after leaving the track. Prior to that effort she had shown great promise coming back from a lengthy layoff to beat allowance company before winning the Pucker Up (G3). She can do her best work near the lead or coming from well off the pace. Additionally, she picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. who takes over for Luan Machado.