Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) Picks

Pace: There is not a clear speed horse in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G1) on Saturday, but there are several runners with good early speed who will want to be forward. Starting from the inside, look for #2 Caitlinhergrtness (12/1) to flash early speed as she gets back on the turf after her victory beating the boys at Woodbine in the King’s Plate. Next to her, jockey John Velazquez will likely secure a stalking or tracking trip with #3 She Feels Pretty (5/2) who is your morning line favorite who is getting blinkers added. The blinkers are likely for increased focus rather than additional early speed, but something to monitor. Toward the outside look for #8 Pounce (12/1) to flash speed early in part to save ground going into the first turn, but more so because the horse has won gate-to-wire and is stretching out from running between six and eight furlongs. Through the first week the turf course has played well to closers, but do not expect an unreasonable pace up front.

#5 Soprano (7/2) – On a very basic level, siding with a European shipper at Keeneland is typically not a bad idea. Euros tend to do well over the course (just look at the 2022 Breeders’ Cup) and Soprano can hit all the right notes coming over to North America for the first time for trainer George Boughey. However, upon closer inspection there is much more to like than simply the horse coming over from the other side of the Atlantic. The daughter of Starspangledbanner has been running well coming into this race collecting a Group 3 win two back in Deauville. The two races that really stand out are the two losses that bookended that victory. Why? Well, last time out she lost in the Group 1 Matron Stakes to Porta Fortuna who is the dominant turf filly in Europe and a multiple time Group 1 winner. Coming in third in that contest is an impressive notch in her resume. The race three back she finished fourth behind Friendly Soul who just last weekend won the Group 1 l’Opera at Longchamp during The Arc weekend. She’s been running against the best fillies and mares in the world and unlike many horses coming over from France and Europe, she appears to prefer firm ground as evidenced by some of her best performances. She will be coming from the back of the pack, but young Billy Loughnane will be coming over as her regular jockey and knows how to get her to into position.

#6 Oversubscribed (6/1) – On one hand, you could look at the Chad Brown trainee as being a bit of a disappointment having gone off as the favorite in all four career starts but only winning two of them. On the other hand, if you watched all four races then you know she had a legitimate excuse in her second career start and likely would have one that race if not for encountering severe issues around the far turn where she was badly checked up and steadied while losing all her momentum. She bounced back from that effort to win the Wild Appleseed Stakes in her next start and then last time out she encountered issues in the stretch when jockey Joel Rosario had her in traffic with nowhere to go while #8 Pounce (12/1) got the jump and had better outside position. Oversubscribed eventually got clear, but not before Pounce had a length head start and that ended up being the final margin. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is back aboard the daughter of Too Darn Hot for Saturday, and I would expect a more mid-pack trip in the two path. Perhaps he can get her over to the rail, but I think leaving this horse in the clear is not the worst of all ideas. The only two losses were preventable and largely came because she experienced traffic issues while traveling on the rail. When you have the best horse, just keep them out of trouble. Now, she might not be the best horse on Saturday, but she has loads of upside potential and I do not think we have come close to seeing the best from her yet. At the 6/1 morning line price, she feels like good value.

#3 She Feels Pretty (5/2) – Cherie DeVaux’s runner has started to get a reputation as just coming up short as the betting line favorite. The daughter of Karakontie has been favored in her last four races, including in the Breeders’ Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), but has only won once during that stretch. That said, her three losses came by a combined 1 ¼ lengths, so she has always been right there at the end and has yet to finish off the board in her career. DeVaux is going to the blinkers for the first time to help the horse finish a bit more strongly and maintain focus in the lane. Jockey John Velazquez always gives a good ride but is 0-14 at Keeneland to this point. The horse should be in a perfect stalking position, turning for home running behind what should be reasonable early fractions. The race will be there for the taking, but she will deal with some nice horses coming after her as this is likely the toughest field she has faced in 2024 with the only one close being the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) where she finished third. The horse has loads of talent and DeVaux is off to a strong start at the Keeneland Fall Meet (3-8 winning), but at a short price, I am willing to try and beat this runner who has burned money in three of her last four starts. Perhaps the blinkers will make the difference, but I will need to see it before returning to be this horse at a short price. However, if for some reason the Euros and Chad Brown runners attract more attention and the horse floats up to third or fourth choice, then she feels very playable.

#9 Grayosh (8/1) – The dreaded “other” Chad Brown runner is coming off a win over She Feels Pretty in the Lake Placid (G2). There is a lot to like about the daughter of Yoshida and I briefly had her as my second choice, but ultimately moved her down simply because of how I regarded the two horses ahead of her. She is still a young horse and has shown significant improvement in nearly every start. Jockey Flavien Prat remains aboard, which is a vote of confidence as he has ridden her the last two times out. She has yet to win running nine furlongs, but in one of those races she lost the rider early and in the other it was her first time facing winners and running without Lasix. Since then, she has proven herself adept at both and should be geared up for a big run on Saturday. She has some versatility in her running style in that she has sat a tracking trip last time out while closing from further back in the past. It provides Prat with options depending on how things go at the break, and I would suspect he might use some of her early speed to clear over to save ground or take back and tuck in behind runners. The issue with the latter option is the lack of a real pace though it is hard to imagine she will get something slower than 1:14 and change to the six-furlong mark as she did last time out in the Lake Placid (G2). If she can get the right trip, she is a dangerous runner at a good price.