Preakness Stakes Picks

Pace: The good news is the rain that was forecast earlier in the week is not going to be as significant as first anticipated though the track will be taking some moisture each day, the worst is through the region. Expect a strong pace for the 150th Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday. #8 Clever Again (5/1) and #1 Goal Oriented (6/1) are the two clear early pace contenders as both possess outstanding speed as well as ample reason to use it going into the first turn. Clever Again will want to cross over from an outside post position while Goal Oriented will want to ensure he is not shuffled back on the rail. However, there is a difference between the two as Goal Oriented has shown the ability to come from off the pace, while Clever Again has only won in gate-to-wire fashion. Therefore, jockey Flavien Prat might be willing to have Goal Oriented sit second to Clever Again in the early stages. #3 American Promise (15/1) will also want to be part of the early pace dynamics as the horse has good early speed, but lacks swiftness out of the gate, which could put him a step behind Goal Oriented breaking to his inside. Expect horses like #6 River Thames (9/2) and #9 Gosger (20/1) to take up position stalking the pace while morning line favorite #2 Journalism (8/5) will sit toward the back of the field, but it is unlikely to be too strung out.

#2 Journalism (8/5) – I have spent the better part of the last six months writing about Journalism and extolling the talents of this horse. The runner-up in the Kentucky Derby (G1) has nothing to hang his head about after running a fantastic race two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. He simply ran up against a better horse in Sovereignty, but despite the loss, the son of Curlin still recorded his third straight 102+ Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) effort. Now he turns around on two weeks’ rest to run in the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown and there is very little to indicate he won’t run a big race. From a race flow standpoint, he has the versatility to lay closer to the pace than he did in the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he sat more of a mid-pack trip. While there are some solid speed horses in the race, he could be sitting as close as third or fourth in the early going or as far back as seventh or eighth. It gives jockey Umberto Rispoli plenty of options to play the break and see how everyone else is playing things going into the first turn. We know he has the stamina for the distance, which is a big question mark with several other top contenders, and he has never run a bad race. I there is one historical deterrent it is in the fact that neither time the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner skipped the Preakness (G1) in the last 13 years (since the Points System was adopted) has the post time favorite won. The closest comparison to this race comes from 2022 when Rich Strike skipped the Preakness (G1) and Epicenter, who has finished second, came to Pimlico to run and finished second again. If there is one race deterrent it is the fact that Pimlico has a reputation for being a heavily speed-favoring track on a big day, which can hold up front end speed. Journalism has proven he can handle different trips, different tracks, and different conditions, so it is hard to envision him running poorly and while others could improve enough to challenge him, if he simply runs his race nobody is beating him so long as the track is playing fair.

#8 Clever Again (5/1) – If there is one horse who I believe can upset Journalism, it is trainer Steve Asmussen’s son of Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh. Clever Again has taken an unusual path to the Preakness Stakes (G1) having debuted in a 4 ½ furlong “baby” race during the Keeneland Spring meet as a two-year-old. As much as we love those races, they rarely produce horses with staying power as they are often simply the oldest or most precocious horses of their crop. However, after Clever Again lost to the filly Dreamaway, who won a stakes race in her next start, he went to the bench for 10 months before emerging as a more developed three-year-old and wiring the field at Oaklawn Park going 1 1/16 miles. After breaking his maiden, Asmussen immediately stepped the horse up to stakes competition in the Hot Spring Stakes where he again went gate-to-wire while easily defeating Gaming who went on to finish third in his next start in the Pat Day Mile (G2). While he is stretching out to a new distance, he has the pedigree to support it as he has a Triple Crown sire and is out of a Galileo mare who was a Group 3 winner in the UK going 1 ½ miles. Jockey Jose Ortiz opted to stay aboard Clever Again over riding Sandman back after his seventh place showing in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Ortiz’s main job will be getting this horse up front and potentially trying to clear the field going into the first turn. At worst, he will be sitting just off a horse like #1 Goal Oriented, but I have a feeling Ortiz is going to be motivated to get to the front given the likely wet track conditions, which the horse should take to just fine. It was encouraging to see him pulling away from the competition in the Hot Springs Stakes and if Ortiz can control the fractions up front he could be tough to track down, particularly if Pimlico is playing to speed, which is often does on big days. Asmussen has won this race twice before and has managed this horse as if he knows he has a good one. I believe the 5/1 morning line price is fair and he is the only horse I would consider using to beat Journalism.

#9 Gosger (20/1) – I am a big fan of this Brendan Walsh trainee who I believe will significantly outrun his morning line odds and should still be a fair price come post time. The winner of the Lexington (G3) is another lightly raced horse with upside potential but will need to take a step forward in his speed figures to compete for placement. However, I believe he can make that jump given his running style, pedigree, and trajectory. He is sired by Nyquist out of a Tapit mare, which would point toward him getting better with distance as well as him appreciating the potentially wet track conditions they could see on Saturday. It is not surprising we have seen him improve with distance to this point in his career as he finished second in debut at six furlongs before breaking his maiden at second calling when he stretched out to a mile. Coming off that maiden breaking win, he ran two turns for the first time in the Lexington (G3) where he was adding to his margin of victory in the final furlong. The race has had mixed results with those who ran back as fourth-place finisher Hypnus ran a very close second to Preakness entry Goal Oriented on the Kentucky Derby undercard while runner-up Bracket Buster fizzled in that same race, though you could excuse his performance due to the sloppy conditions. Trainer Brendan Walsh has done a wonderful job getting this horse ready at Keeneland where he turned in a five-furlong bullet work leading up to Saturday as he went the distance in 1:00.3 and was first of 14. He has a highly effective running style as he prefers to track the pace and should easily slot in behind the leaders going into the first turn while sitting no more than two wide. If there is one concern, he is picking up his fourth jockey in as many starts, though some of that can be chalked up to Walsh having to use secondary options given his top jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, is still out with an ankle injury. Nonetheless, Luis Saez takes over the mount and is one of the stronger jockeys in the country, so you know Gosger will get pushed down the stretch. He feels like a horse who is a prime candidate to move forward as he is still scratching the surface of how good he can be.

#1 Goal Oriented (6/1) – Trainer Bob Baffert started the year with a fleet of three-year-old Triple Crown contenders like Citizen Bull, Gaming, Getaway Car, Barnes, Cornucopian, and Madaket Road, just to name a few. However, they have all proven to be distance or talented limited (or both). Enter Goal Oriented who appears to be the latest runner who will be thrown into a baptism by fire in a big spot somewhat like Cornucopian going to the Arkansas Derby (G1) after breaking his maiden. Goal Oriented is wheeling back on two weeks’ rest after going gate-to-wire in an allowance race at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard. It was an impressive effort over a wet track for a horse who looked very talented breaking his maiden in debut when he had trouble at the break and enveloped the field to win going away. Top jockey Flavien Prat stays aboard, and the inside rail draw likely dictates strategy as the horse will want to avoid getting shuffled back, so Prat will send. However, should a horse like Clever Again clear the field, Goal Oriented has a Plan B given his debut effort passing horses from the back. Still, this is a big spot for a horse who is switching off Lasix for the first time and facing stakes company for the first time. Consider the horse he beat in his last race, Hypnus, had never gotten within six lengths of the winner during all his Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races, including losing by six lengths to Gosger who is 20/1 on the morning line. Baffert might have won the Preakness a record eight times, but it feels as if he does not have the full deck of runners, he needs to make it nine this year. However, Goal Oriented is still a talented horse who should save ground and get a smart ride from Prat. Additionally, on the 20th anniversary of Afleet Alex’s sensational Preakness (G1) victory, it does seem fitting that one of his descendants is in the race as Goal Oriented’s dam (Bizzy Caroline) was sired by Afleet Alex.