Poinsettia Stakes Picks

Pace: Not surprisingly, there will be a strong pace in a 5 ½ furlong sprint in the Poinsettia. Look for morning line favorite #7 Spirit Wind (8/5) and #8 Asternia (12/1) to test each other early as they both have outstanding speed and drew well toward the outside. However, they will have several horses chasing them, which could press a hot pace. Steve Asmussen’s #3 High Class (10/1) is coming off the bench but should be fresh and has shown great early speed in the past. Further toward the outside, #10 Ms. Bucchero (20/1) and #11 Girls Weekend (10/1) both have had success winning in gate-to-wire fashion, but this could be a class test for the latter who is cross entered in an optional claiming race on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. The amount of early speed could open things up for horses coming from just off the pace as through the first two weeks of races at Oaklawn Park, 44% of dirt sprint winners have come from within three lengths of the pace.

#8 Asternia (12/1) – One of the keys in this race is Spirit Wind getting the blinkers off and it’s possible she is not quite as fast out of the gate as she has been in the past. If that’s the case, the daughter of Astern could just wind up on the lead and going gate-to-wire at a track where she’s won a listed stakes race before. Asternia was one of my former Longshot of the Day selections (February 2) when she ran second at 12/1 odds (bad beat in the last couple strides) but I always made a point of following her after that race. She won next time out in the Purple Martin in March at Oaklawn Park and then ran third in the 8 Belles (G2) over a wet track. She went back to racing against optional claiming company in her next start, but something was amiss as she weakened badly going 6 ½ furlongs and went to the bench for the next five months. She came back in November to Churchill Downs and ran a solid second where she ceded the lead late to stakes-placed Tonya Showers. She is now second back from the layoff, conditioning should be better, and this feels like the spot trainer Randy Morse was always pointing toward. I like her at 5 ½ furlongs as she could sustain that early speed along the shorter distance and do it at a big price.

#7 Spirit Wind (8/5) – Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is entering Spirit Wind in this spot rather than the Sugar Swirl Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, which is more than a little curious for the South Florida-based trainer, but this might be an easier spot. The daughter of Bahamian Squall had an interesting 2024 as she heated up midway through the year culminating in winning the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga with jockey Mike Smith aboard. However, she has failed to win since. You can excuse the Pink Ribbon at Charles Town as it is a two-turn race due to the track size and configuration, but then she was not match for Zeitlos in the TCA (G2) and finished third as the even money favorite in the Dream Supreme Stakes at Churchill Downs. Admittedly, Joseph Jr. doesn’t have the best success in Kentucky, but it also is not a lot better in Arkansas as over the last five years he is only 1-9 winning stakes races at Oaklawn Park and only 2-9 even hitting the board in those spots. While a few of those runners were massive longshots, even some of his shorter priced runners have not fired as well as the betting public expected. He is taking the blinkers off, which is an interesting move while shortening up to 5 ½ furlongs. The horse has outstanding natural speed and should be sitting just off Asternia. If she can recapture the form, she showed at Saratoga then she is the clear class of the field, but if she resembles the horse that ran the last two times out, she is vulnerable.

#1 Fibber (9/2) – The daughter of Frosted is a bit of a “one figure” horse as her 95 Beyer Speed Figure from the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park really stands out. Her effort that day was further flattered by the fact the main rival she defeated, Tarifa, came back to be G1-placed in her next start and won the Mother Goose (G2) in her following race. However, Fibber has not won since August and has returned to running in the low-to-mid 80s for her Beyer Speed Figures. Last time out she was a disappointing fifth at Mahoning Valley where she went off as the even money favorite. She has a good running style for Saturday as she possesses enough speed to escape the inside rail position but prefers to track the pace and then pounce at the top of the stretch. If she can secure a pocket trip behind the top few pace horses, then she might just get the ideal trip if they go too fast up front. She has not run this short since her debut, which she won, and this will be her first time running at Oaklawn Park. All that said, trainer Chris Hartmann wheels her back quickly after the Mahoning Valley setback, which makes me think that she is live in this spot. If you’re looking to beat the favorite, she is a horse to include in your horizontal tickets.

#10 Ms. Bucchero (20/1) – Let’s have some fun with a bomb rounding out the superfecta. I am not sure Ms. Bucchero can win, but I do like her to turn in a solid effort in this race. The daughter of…you guessed it…Bucchero is coming off a stakes victory at Laurel Park last time out. She has good early speed and should be prominent from the start. She has won half of her career starts (7-14) and while she is shortening up a little for this race, she has the versatility you like to see from horses as she has won on the lead and while stalking/tracking the pace. Jockey Xavier Perez, who rode her to victory in her stakes effort, is flying in for the mount, which shows some loyalty to the four-year-old filly. She will need to improve her Beyer Speed Figures to have a shot to win as her 77 Beyer from her last start will not be good enough to win, but she likes to win and answered questions about running off Lasix with her previous stakes victory. The other horse that is worth mentioning is #12 Royal Spa (4/1) who is a very good horse who has been running against solid competition having finished second to Two Sharp in the Chilukki (G3). However, she is cutting back from a mile to 5 ½ furlongs for trainer Rudy Brissett, which is curious as she hasn’t won going even six furlongs in over a year and appears to be betting going a little longer. She will be coming from off the pace but will need to make sure she does not get caught too far wide around the turn and save some ground from the far outside post under the guidance of jockey Cristian Torres.