Peter Pan Stakes Picks

Pace: An intriguing collection of talent for this year’s renewal of the Peter Pan (G3), which is often used as a steppingstone to the Belmont Stakes for the winning connections. The pace is rather straightforward given there is very little early speed to challenge #8 Captain Cook who should be able to get to the front with jockey Manny Franco aboard. While the horse has never gone to the lead in his previous starts, he is one of the few horses that has even held a forward position. Franco is an aggressive jockey and will be seeking to clear the field going into the first turn. The other two primary early pace contenders are #1 Vassimo and #6 Uncaged as they both have the potential to be forward largely due to the lack of any other speed. Vassimo holds the inside rail position, which will give jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. even more incentive to be forward early, but will likely be content sitting a pocket trip behind Captain Cook. Meanwhile, Uncaged is stretching out to two turns for the first time and might show better early speed against this group of routers compared to the swifter sprint competition. While horses like #4 Hill Road and #5 McAfee are interesting, they will be trying to track down lone speed.

#6 Uncaged (8/1) – Taking a swing against Captain Cook who I believe is beatable in this race despite having won at this distance back in February in the Withers Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher may have the more accomplished jockey on Vassimo in the form of Irad Ortiz Jr., but I have serious questions about that horse’s ability to win off Lasix, though he will admittedly sit a good trip. Rather, I am looking toward Pletcher’s other horse, Uncaged, as my top selection. The Winstar Farm homebred certainly has the pedigree for distance as he is sired by Curlin, but this will be his first time going two turns. You could look at his two victories as being aided by a wet track, though it’s noteworthy that neither day featured a track bias per Andy Serling’s Track Trends. His debut victory in Saratoga was over a solid field that included future stakes winners I Got Game and Cyclone State. However, after his impressive score at six furlongs, he went to the bench for seven months and came back in another sprint at Gulfstream Park in a race that dominated by frontend speed and was won by Rolando who came back to win the Hutchenson Stakes in his next start. I am willing to forgive that effort as he was coming off the bench and could have needed to knock off some rust and six furlongs is not the distance he was bred to run. The Peter Pan (G3) always felt like a logical target for this horse as Pletcher stretched him out to a mile in his next start against allowance optional claiming company at Aqueduct where he had a tough start banging between horses before eventually being squeezed back to last. Despite the poor early position, he made an impressive move and drew away from the field by nearly two lengths. He should only continue to get better with more distance and jockey Kendrick Carmouche stays aboard, which I view as a positive since Carmouche is one of the more aggressive riders in the New York circuit and I can envision him getting some speed out of this one at the start. He should have better early speed compared to this group as he goes two turns for the first time and could be sitting a tracking trip behind Captain Cook. He is a colt with expectations given the $450,000 price tag and could give WinStar and co-owner Mike Repole a prime candidate for the Belmont Stakes.

#8 Captain Cook (2/1) – The winner of the Withers Stakes back in February has already passed the nine-furlong test, so he can get the distance, but those were under optimal circumstances against a mediocre field where they set slow fractions. Last time out in the Wood Memorial (G2), he faded back to fourth after closely stalking the pace of frontrunner Rodriguez who went nearly 2.5 seconds faster to the six-furlong mark than the leader did in the Withers. Therefore, the question is whether Captain Cook, sired by the notable sprint sire Practical Joke, can get the distance when forced to run faster fractions. The issue for Saturday is that, on paper, there is nobody in the race who could put significant pressure on him. Ultimately, I think this is a better overall group than who Captain Cook beat in the Withers and I still have questions about his ability to consistently get two turns. The other unanswered question is how the horse will respond on the lead since he has come from off the pace in every career start. The complete lack of pace in this race will force him into a new position and it is possible he gets lost on the lead and is not the same horse if he fails to have a target at which to run. He will be a heavy favorite and depending on who else you like in this race; he should likely be included on your ticket if you are only using one or two other alternatives. He has been training well for trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. who typically works his horses slow leading up to a race and he will be making his second start after just over a two month absence, so perhaps he will be in better shape than he was for the Wood Memorial (G2), though one has to imagine the screws were pretty tight for that race since it was their opportunity to get into the Kentucky Derby (G1) field.

#10 Lordship (12/1) – Cross-entered in the Long Branch on Opening Day at Monmouth Park, this Chad Brown runner could provide some intriguing value should he end up running at Aqueduct. The son of Gun Runner is the full sibling to Grade 3 winner Hall of Fame who has recorded four straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) including one last Friday in the Alysheba (G2). Lordship debuted at Tampa Bay Downs in March where he won despite a poor start that put him well behind the leaders. He collected himself under jockey Sammy Camacho, who is listed as his rider for the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park, and made a nice move and ultimately got the lead with a half furlong left. He is another horse who could show better early speed in his second start if he gets things cleaned up coming out of the gate. His debut 75 BSF is a little light for this field, but he has every right to move forward in his second start and Brown has had success getting horses to win graded stakes races on the dirt in their second start. Over the last five years, both Early Voting and Jack Christopher have won dirt route graded stakes races in their second starts after being a debut winner. Additionally, Sierra Leone was a close second under those conditions in the 2023 Remsen (G3), so despite Brown’s reputation as being primarily a turf trainer, he has had significant success with stepping dirt horses up in these scenarios. If there is a hole in that logic, his young runners who achieve the most success tend to be heavy favorites and Lordship might be more of a price come post time as he lacks the top BSF that even his stablemate, Hill Road, can boast. Nevertheless, Lordship has a lot to like aside from pedigree as he represents significant upside and could be a horse that improves with added distance. Look for jockey Dylan Davis to try and get a clean start and move Lordship over to save ground going into the first turn. The lack of significantly early speed could provide him with the opportunity to be sitting third or fourth while travelling in the two path most of the trip.

#5 McAfee (8/1) – I debated using Brown’s other horse, #4 Hill Road, as my fourth selection as the former European runner teased us with talent when he finished third at Del Mar last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at odds of 61/1. He was one of the few horses to make up any ground at the track and was transferred to Brown’s barn to remain in North America. However, his distant third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby in his 2025 debut makes me slightly hesitant to back him as a win candidate at a short price and it also concerned me that he did not show better early speed in that race despite the addition of blinkers. Therefore, I will shift my focus to trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.’s other horse, McAfee, as my fourth selection as the half sibling to reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, could move forward in his third start in the form cycle. The biggest reason for optimism is this horse’s BSF have improved in every start from 64 to 74 to 82 to 89 last time out when he finished fifth in the Wood Memorial (G2). Dutrow Jr. is adding blinkers, which is a plus move for the trainer and should greatly help this horse get out of the gate and into a better early position. The addition of jockey John Velazquez only contributes to the confidence we will see him sitting closer to the pace on Saturday as opposed to being near the back of the field as Velazquez is one of the best jockeys at getting speed out of a horse. McAfee has always shown the ability to pass horses, so the idea of him sitting closer to the pace with less to do at the top of the stretch would appear to be a winning formula. The other positive is that he has been working regularly for Dutrow Jr. leading up to the race, which is positive considering he was a vet scratch in a few races earlier this year. In a race where pace will be limited, I would rather put my money on horses that have a good chance at being close early as I have a hard time thinking deep closers will have the ability to get to the wire late.