Pennsylvania Derby Picks

Analysis: While the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) might lack the top two horses from this year’s three-year-old crop, it does not lack depth and quality. Horses such as Baeza and Gosger simply have had the bad fortune to run against Sovereignty and Journalism throughout the year. Those two are heads and shoulders above the rest of the class with Sovereignty being at the head of the class. However, on Saturday at Parx, the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) is an opportunity for some of these horses to step out of the shadows and show their potential before going into the Breeders’ Cup.

#9 Gosger (4/1) is a horse I have liked since before his Lexington Stakes (G3) victory at Keeneland back in April. Trainer Brendan Walsh targeted the Preakness (G1) as his next spot and he ran a huge race but was overshadowed by the freakish performance put on by Journalism who got him in the last couple of strides after dangerously bumping between horses in the stretch. Undeterred, Walsh entered Gosger in the Haskell (G1) where he again at the lead in the final few strides but was tracked down by Journalism right before the wire. Journalism is not entered on Saturday and Gosger has gotten faster on Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) in every start. Walsh has done a remarkable job training the horse between starts and has targeted the right races to have the horse turn in his best effort. He again has Gosger in top form coming into the race as evidenced by the five-furlong bullet workout he put in on September 12 at Churchill Downs leading into the race. On Saturday, he will be breaking toward the outside of the field, but jockey Luis Saez has some options at the break as Gosger has shown the ability to sit off the pace. There is a good number of horses who want to be forward in this field, which should give Saez the opportunity to sit behind the pace as he did in the Haskell (G1) and then get first run on the leaders. The horse should have no problem with the distance and has proven to be nearly the equal to the second-best horse in his generation, which is more than nearly anyone else in the field can say.

One horse that could make a similar claim is #8 Baeza (2/1). Your morning line favorite has been heavily hyped his entire career due to his pedigree as he is the half-sibling to 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. Amazingly, Baeza has only won one race in his career, but will eclipse over $1,000,000 in career earnings on Saturday. After breaking his maiden in February at Santa Anita, trainer John Shirreffs entered him in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) where he ran second to Journalism. Based off that effort he managed to get into the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he ran a strong third to Sovereignty and Journalism. He ran into those two again at Saratoga for the Belmont Stakes (G1) with the same result. Credit to Shirreffs and the connections for flying cross-country again to run in the Jim Dandy (G2) against Sovereignty where he finished second. He showed a lot of fight that day only losing to Sovereignty by a length, which looks even more impressive given what Sovereignty went on to do in the Travers (G1). I believe nine furlongs is Baeza’s best distance and he has continued to mature physically from his Triple Crown races. Additionally, this will be the last opportunity the horse and connections must win a Grade 1 with him against three-year-old company as the waters will get deeper against older horses after this. There is an imperative that he wins on Saturday to secure a more lucrative deal after his days in racing are over as a stallion. He is absolutely going to be included on my tickets, but he reminds me a bit of the horse Midnight Bourbon who was always incredibly game and ran well every time out but failed to get a breakthrough victory.

Many of the reasons I like Gosger could also be applied to #6 Goal Oriented (5/2) for trainer Bob Baffert. He dueled with Gosger down the stretch in the Haskell (G1) until they were both overtaken by Journalism. However, Goal Oriented has fewer starts and less experience, but his effort at Monmouth Park showed that he belonged. Baffert is always dangerous when sending horses to Parx and won this race multiple times, most recently with Taiba in 2022. The horse has good early speed, but can sit off the pace and picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. There is little to knock about the horse’s form as he got a tough trip in the Preakness (G1) in his prior start with Journalism bulldozing his way through in the stretch. Goal Oriented has been training well for Baffert out in California and has a solid pedigree for the nine-furlong distance. Expect Ortiz Jr. to ensure the horse gets away well and sits in a tracking position where he can get the jump on Gosger and potentially get to the lead at the top of the stretch. On horse he will be overtaking at the top of the stretch is #3 Magnitude (6/1) who is the horse I am most against in this race. The chic pick to beat Sovereignty in the Travers (G1) proved to be Fools Gold. If you only believe Beyer Speed Figures you could say he was “faster” than Sovereignty. Well, that was true for about 90 seconds in the Travers. Then Sovereignty (and Bracket Buster) showed Magnitude that this wasn’t the Iowa Derby as he subsequently lost by 20 ¾ lengths. I worry about horses that are demoralized as well as horses that clearly have two anomalous efforts in their past performances that I’m skeptical they will be able to replicate.

Finally, #1 So Sandy (15/1) is an interesting horse for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The horse clearly appreciates more distance and is coming off a runner-up finish in the Curlin Stakes last time out. He is stepping up in class, but I like the timing of this race and that the connections did not rush the horse back in the Travers (G1), which typically happens with horses that run well in the Curlin. I love So Sandy’s pedigree as he is sired by Omaha Beach out of a Tapit mare, which should give him plenty of stamina while saving every inch of ground on the inside rail. You could also look to #4 David of Athens (12/1) for trainer Brendan Walsh with jockey Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. The horse is lightly raced and stretching out beyond a mile for the first time, but you figure a horse sired by Nyquist can get nine furlongs and he easily bested allowance company last time out. He worked with his stablemate Gosger last time out and registered a similar bullet workout that morning, which showed he can hang with the top runner in Walsh’s barn and could be ready for the class test.