Pegasus World Cup F&M Turf (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

Expect a reasonable pace up front in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) as both #5 Classic Q (6/1) and #11 In Our Time (5/1) both like to be up front. There will be a great imperative for In Our Time to cross and clear over to the rail ahead of the first turn as she is breaking from such an outside post position. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will try to get her into a rhythm up front and his brother, Jose Ortiz, will be guiding Classic Q to a similar trip. However, there are a few other horses in the field such as #10 And One More Time (12/1) and #6 Caitlinhergrtness (8/1) who will keep them honest up front as they prefer to closely track the pace. The fractions should allow horses sitting toward the rear of the field such as #4 Breath Away (8/1) and #7 Whiskey Decision (9/2) to get something to run into coming home. That said, I sometimes prefer those who get first run on the Gulfstream Park turf course, particularly when the Ortiz brothers are controlling things up front.

Analysis

In a race where your morning line favorite is 9/2, it makes sense to go with a price and that’s exactly what I’m doing as I love #8 Proctor Street (12/1) for trainer Brendan Walsh with jockey Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. The daughter of Street Sense might have more in common with her dam, Proctor’s Ledge, who was a multiple-time graded stakes turf route winner. The five-year-old mare has always been highly regarded within the Walsh barn and handled carefully as a result. After a promising start to her career with a pair of victories, she disappointed in the Winter Memories Stakes and was on the bench for nine months, in part because she got loose while training during that time. Once Walsh brought her back, she has worked her way back into form and is coming off a victory in the Cardinal Stakes at Churchill Downs going nine furlongs. She has a wicked turn of foot when in the clear and her post position should allow her to be sitting in the two path while avoiding a wide trip. The horse has progressively moved forward in her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) in nearly every start and is training well for Walsh in South Florida. Due to the pace scenario, she should get honest fractions where Gaffalione can unleash her from toward the back of the field to get a good run at the leaders, plus she likes to win having gotten her picture taken in five of eight career starts. I believe Saturday can be a breakout performance for a mare who has loads of pedigree and potential, and is finally getting a chance to show it on a big stage.

Another mare who will be making a run from the back of the pace is #4 Breath Away (8/1) for trainer Miguel Clement with the European superstar jockey Oisin Murphy on the mount. Murphy might not be as well known by North American fans, but he’s raced at Gulfstream Park before and has a memorable victory with Marche Lorraine in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) back at Del Mar in 2021, which gave Japan their first Breeders’ Cup win. Breath Away has always been a consistent runner finishing in the money in 15 of 21 career starts with five victories and if seems as if she is starting to discover her best form. She had back-to-back stakes wins over the summer and fall at Monmouth and Woodbine before coming up just short in the Goldikova (G3) at Del Mar. She stayed out west and ran a respectable fourth in the Matriarch (G1), but there was zero pace in that race as they went glacial fractions for a mile race at Del Mar. The good news is that it appears as if she has continued to move forward in her training since returning to the East Coast. Qatar Racing recently purchased her for $625,000 and opted to continue racing her, which speaks to the fact they believe she still has something left in the tank. I expect Murphy to keep her covered up on the rail until they turn for home before finding a seam and tipping her out for a big stretch run.

There are few handicapping angles I enjoy playing more than playing lightly raced horses who have shown continual improvement and are now stepping up in class, which is why I love #10 And One More Time (12/1). The Mark Casse trainee recently turned four, but only has five career starts, three of which have come on the grass. She debuted as a juvenile and broke her maiden second time out in an off-turf race at Churchill Downs before winning the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine. However, she did not return to the track for over a year but got right back to the winner’s circle winning an allowance race at Woodbine. Casse brought her to Gulfstream Park this winter and she recently finished second in the Tropical Park Oaks to fellow Saturday entrant #3 Destino d’Oro (12/1). She did not have the best trip that day as she was further back than she typically likes to sit and forced to go wide. On Saturday she will be running her third race back in the form cycle and has been working lights out of Casse at Palm Meadows, most notably registering a blistering 47.3. second four-furlong bullet workout on January 4. She likes to closely track the pace, which should set up nicely as I’d imagine she will follow #11 In Our Time (5/1) toward the front and tuck in behind her going into the first turn. I also love the pedigree on this horse. She’s an Omaha Beach out of a Blame mare who produced Grade 1 winner Simply in Front as well as Grade 2 winner Honor D Lady. The combination of a hot barn, great pedigree, improving form, and a big price makes her an appealing option to play underneath or as an upset bid.

Finally, I would be remised if I didn’t mention #7 Whiskey Decision (9/2) for trainer Chad Brown with jockey Flavien Prat in the irons. The connections alone will lead to this horse taking money on Saturday, but I’m not sure she is good of a bet as her odds might indicate come post time. The daughter of Into Mischief gaveled at $1.5 million for Alpha Delta Stables at the recent Horses of Racing Age Sale at Keeneland, so there are clearly some big plans for this mare on the track and as a future broodmare prospect. Since coming to Brown’s barn, she has won two of three starts including a graded stakes victory in the Eatontown (G3) at Monmouth Park. She has run three straight races with her BSF in the low-to-mid 90s, which is the sort of consistency you like to see out of a mare at this age, but she also got the perfect trip in each of those. Saturday might prove to be tougher conditions and tougher competition. She hasn’t run since September and while she has every opportunity to continue to run well under Brown’s supervision, she feels like a horse you can try to beat in a wide-open race.