Pegasus World Cup (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Expect a strong early pace with several horses contending for the lead going into the first turn. Working from the inside out, #1 Disco Time, #3 Full Serrano, #6 Madaket Road, #9 Captain Cook, and #10 Mika all have excellent initial speed with Captain Cook and Mika having the most urgency to get to the front to clear most of the field to avoid being hung wide. Additionally, horses such as #4 Banishing, #5 Skippylongstocking, #7 Tappan Street, and #11 White Abarrio all prefer sitting closer or within a few lengths of the pace. While it might appear there will be a pace meltdown, Gulfstream Park can carry front end speed, so I would not expect all the initial leaders to start backing up. The quality of the horses coming from off-the-pace is a question mark and might allow several of the leaders to stay clear in the stretch. There is also the outside chance that the connections and jockeys read the same racing form we do, and realize there is too much speed. We’ve seen this before where a race that appears to be chalked full of speed suddenly turns into a race where someone gets loose up front because everyone else decided to avoid a pace duel. That said, it feels like the pace will be strong, but those fractions can heat up at Gulfstream Park and still stay together in the final furlong.

Analysis:

Trainer Brad Cox holds a strong hand heading into Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup (G1) as he has undefeated morning line favorite #1 Disco Time (8/5) and former Florida Derby (G1) winner #7 Tappan Street (G1). They are both immensely talented, but also come with some questions marks, which is why I will lean toward the better price with Tappan Street being my top selection. The $1 million son of Into Mischief burst onto the scene 13 months ago at Gulfstream Park with an impressive debut maiden victory and followed that up with a second-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) the following month as he was overtaken late by Burnham Square who went on to win the Blue Grass (G1) later that Spring. His third career start was the most promising as he bested Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (G1). To date, he is the last horse to cross the wire ahead of the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), and Travers (G1) winner, which is a huge feather in his cap. Yes, the Sovereignty fans can make the excuse that the Godolphin runner didn’t have his regular rider or that he didn’t “need” the race, but there is a possibility that Tappan Street was just better. Sadly, we were never able to see that as the horse suffered a serious injury training up to the Kentucky Derby (G1), which led to surgery and a long recovery. He eventually returned to the races last month in an allowance race going a mile at Gulfstream Park where he was bet down to 1/9 favoritism and delivered with a workman like victory. The performance did not “wow” many, but he sat close to the pace and drove clear in his first start in nine months. The fact Cox and WinStar opt to place him in a Grade 1 for his next start speaks to their confidence in the horse and how he has been training. Speaking of training, he outworked his favored stablemate Disco Time in their final prep before the Pegasus as he recorded a 1:01.3 five-furlong bullet work at Payson Park. The most significant reason I prefer Tappan Street is his running style. He naturally prefers to come from mid-pack and will not be forced into a stalking trip as he was in his return race. Jockey Luis Saez can let him bounce out of the gate and get a nice position behind the early leaders while still being in position to get first run on them on the far turn. There is no doubt he will need to improve his Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) by 10-15 points to win, but I believe that is a reasonable expectation for a horse stretching out in his second start back after a lengthy layoff. I believe he is about to make a statement on Saturday that the Florida Derby (G1) was no fluke.

His stablemate, Disco Time, is a serious horse. The undefeated son of Not This Time is stretching out to a new distance and facing Grade 1 competition for the first time, but he has given every indication that he is up for the challenge. Like Tappan Street, he also had his three-year-old campaign cut short due to a setback after he won the Lecomte (G3) last January. He came back in September and won the St. Louis Derby and followed that up with a dominating run in the Dwyer Stakes at Aqueduct where he beat the field by nearly ten lengths. He was assigned an eye-popping 107 BSF for the effort and comes into Saturday carrying lofty expectations of his connections for a big 2026 campaign. He has outstanding early speed and jockey Flavien Prat will be able to save every inch of ground while breaking from the inside post. However, as impressive as his recent efforts have been since returning from the layoff, his Lecomte (G3) remains the race I go back to the most often despite his pedestrian 77 BSF he was assigned for his victory. Why? Because he showed a completely different dimension in that race as he came from ten lengths back and passed nearly the entire field to nab Built at the wire. Therefore, it is not paramount Prat takes the horse to the lead on Saturday as he can easily settle into a pocket trip behind the likes to Full Serrano and Mika up front. He should be able to handle the distance, particularly at a track like Gulfstream Park, but there is no doubt this is a tough group that besting the likes of Tip Top Thomas, Crudo, Hynus, and Excite. He must beat Breeders’ Cup winners and veteran horses who have racked up significantly more impressive resumes. He can absolutely do it and I will be including him on all my Late Pick 5 tickets.

This is where things get a little weird as I believe you can go after some big prices underneath based upon your opinion of the horse, pace, and race complexion. I’m not sold on #11 White Abarrio (4/1) at a short price breaking from that outside post, particularly with all the speculation around him after his vet scratch at the Breeders’ Cup this year. I hear the arguments for #3 Full Serrano (12/1) and likely would put him fifth, but he is traveling out of California for the first time since arriving in North America and I’m not sold that he wants nine furlongs, even at Gulfstream Park. While I have a great deal of respect for any Bob Baffert runner, 6 Madaket Road (10/1) does nothing for me given that he’s only even beat maidens. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with #10 Mika (10/1) underneath for trainer Mike Maker and jockey Manny Franco. The modestly bred son of Catholic Boy had a completely undistinguished career until former trainer Brittany Russell ran him in an off-turf race at Delaware Park in May of last year and he got the win. He went to the bench for six months but trounce N1X allowance company at Laurel Park by over 14 lengths. Based on that effort, he was transferred to Mike Maker and ran in the Cigar Mile (G2), which was a massive class jump for a horse that was a 14/1 afterthought in the race. However, he ran huge while getting nabbed by highly touted Bishop’s Bay at the wire. He was assigned a 106 BSF and is now aggressively entered in a deep Grade 1 field. I believe he will be the speed of the speed as jockey Manny Franco knows he has to cross over the field from the #10 post and the horse has already won around two turns twice before. It’s fair to point out he was caught going a shorter distance last time out, but Maker is excellent at getting more distance out of his runners and the horse has been training beautifully down in South Florida leading up to the race. I think the horse can surprise and hold on for a piece after setting the fractions, particularly over a track like Gulfstream Park.

Finally, as mentioned above, I debated using Full Serrano in this fourth spot, but landed on an unlikely choice in the form of #8 Poster (20/1) for trainer Eoin Harty. The Godolphin runner, sired by Munnings, is out of a Tapit mare and shown the ability to handle the distance as he won the 2024 Remsen (G2) going nine furlongs. He is an interesting horse in that three of his four career victories have come on the turf, but he seems more than capable of handling the dirt. Like Tappan Street and Disco Time, he also experienced a lengthy layoff during his three-year-old campaign as he did not run from March until November. Harty brought him back in an allowance race on the grass at Churchill Downs where he scored a victory tracking the pace. He then went to the Harlan’s Holiday (G3), which is the local prep race at Gulfstream Park for the Pegasus World Cup (G1). At the top of the stretch, he looked like the winner but was out-dueled by veteran Skippylongstocking. He will be third back in the form cycle on Saturday and Harty has opted to add blinkers, which I believe will have two positive contributions. First, he has been coming from further off the pace the last few times on the dirt and this should get him away in better order. Second, and more importantly, I believe the blinkers will help him stay focused in the stretch and get by horses, so he does not have a repeat of the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) stretch run. I like the pair of workouts at Tampa Bay Downs he has put in leading up to this race and he gets Junior Alvarado on the mount, who knows a little something about riding Godolphin horses. At a huge price, he is the sort of horse I expect to be picking up pieces late in what could be a strung-out field when they hit the wire.