MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEKRace Date: 01/25/2025

Pegasus World Cup Picks

Gulfstream Park, Race 13, Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, Post Time-5:40 PM ET

2
Saudi Crown
11
Locked
4
White Abarrio
10
Skippylongstocking

Pace: Oddly enough, I do not expect a particularly contested pace on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Most entries are content to track or sit mid-pack with several others preferring to close from well off the pace. As a result, expect #2 Saudi Crown (9/2) to take the initiative as he represents controlling inside speed, which is a dangerous attribute to have in Hallandale Beach, Florida. Meanwhile, #4 White Abarrio (3/1) should be content to track the pace so long as he breaks better than he did the last two starts and #6 Stronghold (10/1) is another horse that prefers to sit just off the pace. The other main pace presence is likely to be #10 Skippylongstocking (10/1) who will break a little further outside and use his superior early speed to cross and clear a majority of the field going into the first turn. Your morning line favorite, #11 Locked (5/2) could be caught wide on both turns, which is a problem.

#2 Saudi Crown (9/2) – The best version of Saudi Crown wins this race much of the time. The question, which is why you’re getting 9/2 odds on him, is whether you will get the best version of the horse. The former Grade 1 winner ran perhaps the best race of his career when finishing third in the Saudi Cup (G1) last year as he emerged from a hotly contested pace and nearly won before being overtaken in the last few strides by deep closers Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador. He has never really been the same after that race, but there are excuses. Acacia Clement reported that he “ran his race in the paddock” before a disappointing effort in the Godolphin Mile (G2) in his next start. He came back from the Middle East and had a five-month layoff before winning a listed stakes race at Ellis Park. He was supposed to go to the Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs, but the connections decided not to enter him due to poor track conditions caused by the presence of a hurricane. Therefore, he did not get a chance to prep prior to running in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) where, much like in the Godolphin Mile (G2), he failed to fire. However, his last start was promising. Yes, he got Lasix, but he looked like the best version of himself winning the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds over a solid field and was even able to stalk the pace. Trainer Brad Cox is not in the habit of entering horses in races where they are over their heads, which leads me to believe he has a real shot. Inside controlling speed is always dangerous at Gulfstream Park. We usually see this race won on the frontend in recent years by the likes of National Treasure or Life Is Good. Again, at his best, Saudi Crown strikes me as a very similar horse to Life Is Good. He can be elite at a mile and stretch out to nine furlongs when conditions dictate. Being lone speed on a speed favoring track while saving ground would qualify as sufficient conditions.

#11 Locked (5/2) – Your morning line favorite is a horse that many had forgotten about when he was abruptly pulled from the Kentucky Derby trail last year prior to the Fountain of Youth (G2) with a foot injury, but remember that he, not Fierceness or Muth, was your favorite in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and he seems to have come back better than before. The son of Gun Runner came back from an 11-month layoff in October to easily dispatch allowance company before stepping up to win the Cigar Mile (G2) for trainer Todd Pletcher, who seems to have always had big plans for this horse. Even prior to the running of the Cigar Mile (G2), Pletcher had stated that the Pegasus (G1) was the goal. For a trainer who is usually tight-lipped and conservative with his statements, it showed a great deal of confidence in a horse who had only made one start off the bench. However, Locked proved he was worthy of that confidence as he tracked down the lone speed of Mullikin at Aqueduct to pick up his second graded stakes victory. For Saturday, things get tougher. First, he is stretching back out to two turns, which should not be a problem, but will be the first time since his third-place finish in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) that he will run that far. Second, the competition might be a little stiffer than what he faced in the Cigar Mile. Third, and most importantly, the post draw did him no favors. Drawing this far outside is a challenge at Gulfstream Park as the runup to the first turn comes at you fast and Locked does not possess outstanding early speed to cross and clear the entire field. He is also not a deep closer who could let everyone run out and simply make his way to the rail behind the field. He is a mid-pack runner and has the potential to be caught wide. I am incredibly high on this horse and think he is sitting on a big race, but overcoming the post is a challenge for a horse that will be a short price. I think there are some reasons to try and beat him while acknowledging he is likely the best horse in the race.

#4 White Abarrio (3/1) – The local hero, White Abarrio has had quite a career. From 2022 Florida Derby winner to 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner to an underwhelming 2024, he is back in familiar surroundings with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. at Gulfstream Park after spending a year in Rick Dutrow Jr.’s barn. The son of Race Day is coming into the race with a pair of preps after a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Met Mile (G1) over the summer at Saratoga. He cruised to a 10+ length victory in his first race back before losing to Mufasa in the Mr. Prospector (G3) last time out. Losing to a multiple graded stakes winner like Mufasa while going seven furlongs is not a red flag, but it is a little troubling to see that White Abarrio has struggled to get off to a good start in his last two efforts. While he was able to easily overcome that obstacle against allowance company, it hurt him last time out when he had to rally from last to finish second. He showed a lot of heart coming from the back of the field and was hitting his best stride late to suggest that getting back to two turns and nine furlongs would be no problem. Ideally, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. would have this horse tracking the early pace of Saudi Crown, but if he fails to fire out of the gate, he could get shuffled further back than he might otherwise prefer. He is training exceptionally well coming into this race and should sit the right type of trip. The biggest issue I have is whether he gets his starts cleaned up and how short of a price I am willing to take on a horse who last two turns in November 2023.

#10 Skippylongstocking (10/1) – The “other” Saffie Joseph Jr. runner is one of those hard-knocking horses that you come to respect. Personally, I was never sold on Skippylongstocking being one of the top horses in his division, but you must respect the resume he’s compiled over the last few years with seven graded stakes victories. On that metric alone, he’s the class of the field. However, none of those have been Grade 1s and he appears to be a cut below the elite horses in his division. In his nine previous Grade 1 attempts, he never finished better than third (three times) and most of those efforts were also rans performances. That said, when you get past the top three, I think his race really opens up. I do not have a great feel for Mixto, and I think Stronghold has been expertly managed by trainer Phil D’Amato but has never faced elite competition. Meanwhile, I am out on 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan who got a dream trip over a wet track on the first Saturday in May but has failed to progress beyond that as the rest of his crop improved. Certainly a horse like late-running Crupi would make some sense in your deeper vertical tickets, but I think you can make a case for Skippylongstocking based off the fact he has very good early speed, and unlike Locked, he should be able to cross and clear most of the field going into the first turn and will likely be in the two path with White Abarrio tracking the lead of Saudi Crown. If he carves out the right trip, he will try his best and is 9-13 at the distance with five victories. He has not run since the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), but has been training consistently in preparation for this and should fire an honest effort.

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