Pegasus Stakes Picks

Overview: Haskell Preview Day is always a fun time at Monmouth Park and gives fans a chance to see some of the horses that will be running a month from now on Haskell Day. The local Haskell (G1) prep is the Pegasus Stakes, which features some intriguing runners who could make a big impression on the three-year-old male crop later this summer. An important note is that several of the entries are cross entered in a race at Delaware Park including Kentucky Outlaw who won the Long Branch Stakes last time out, which is the local prep for the Pegasus Stakes. It feels distinctly possible that Kentucky Outlaw, who trains at Parx, could opt to run at Delaware Park, which would change the complexion of the race.

#3 Garamond – The Chad Brown trainee towers over the field in speed figures and if Kentucky Outlaw runs at Delaware Park, then his job gets that much easier. To give you a sense of the Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) advantage, his last race, in which he earned a 98 BSF, is 15 points better than anyone else’s career best. Even his third-place finish in the Gotham (G3) two back in which he earned an 89 would still give him a five-point buffer over the best the rest of the field has to offer. So long as jockey Flavien Prat keeps him out of trouble, it is his race to lose, and he is the most likely winner. Speaking of Prat, it is encouraging to see that he stays aboard after guiding him to an impressive victory last time out against in an allowance race where he easily best heavy favorite Cornucopian trained by Bob Baffert. Yes, it was only a three-horse field, but he showed a significantly better gate speed and got to the front and took them the full mile up front as he was pulling away at the end. Saturday will be his first attempt at two turns, but his pedigree should love distance as he is sired by Uncle Mo and out of a Tapit mare, so going an extra half-furlong should hardly be an obstacle. Both Bracket Buster (more on him in a second) and Wildncrazynight have good early speed and draw to Garamond’s outside, so it’s possible they make things a little more challenging, but the heavy favorite showed he can rate kindly in debut and passed several horses in his Gotham (G3) run, so there should not be any worry if he fails to strike the lead as Prat will keep him close and the horse has shown versatility in the past. He certainly feels like a single in the All-Stakes Late P5 sequence on Saturday.

#5 Bracket Buster – Trainer Victoria Oliver’s son of Vekoma is coming off a poor effort against allowance company on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard last time out. He got Lasix for the first time and finished a disappointing seventh, though it was a tough spot as he faced off against Goal Oriented as well as next out winners Hypnus and Racing Driver. It was also his first time over a wet track off three weeks’ rest after finishing second to Gosger in the Lexington (G3). The effort against Gosger is what gives me hope that he might be able to do some running and perhaps challenge Garamond in the stretch. Gosger, of course, went on to finish second to Journalism in a thrilling finish in the Preakness (G1) and is targeting some big race this summer like the Haskell (G1) or Jim Dandy (G2). Despite Vekoma likely being a better sprint influence, the horse has already won going Saturday’s distance and has been training extremely well of Oliver highlighted by the 46.4 second four-furlong bullet work at Churchill Downs on June 1 that was first of 117 runners. While he does not need the lead seeing as broke his maiden stalking the pace, it does appear obvious that he does his best running in a forward position, so jockey Axel Concepcion will need to be aggressive out of the gate as he is dealing with Garamond to his inside and Wildncrazynight to his outside. So long as he secures a decent trip in the top two or three, he should have the opportunity to show his best effort. He is third back in the form cycle following a six-month absence and while there is rain in the forecast on Saturday, it should not be anywhere near the conditions he ran in at Churchill Downs last time out.

#4 Valentinian – Todd Pletcher brings his $1.5 million son of Into Mischief to Monmouth at a bit of a crossroads. The three-year-old, owned by powerhouse Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Stonestreet Stables, clearly has some expectations based upon that price tag as well as his pedigree as he is from Grade 1-winning mare Rachel Valentina who is from legendary filly Rachel Alexandra. However, the horse debuted for Pletcher in March at Tampa Bay Downs, which is a bit odd since the top Pletcher runners would debut at Gulfstream Park during the Championship Meet. The horse won easily in debut going Saturday’s distance. Pletcher stepped him up to face winners for the first time at Keeneland in early April and he made a nice run from the back to finish third to his stablemate Skate Away. Then last time out, he ran against Bracket Buster in that allowance race with Goal Oriented on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard. He finished fourth when running over a wet track for the first time and was able to make up position as he was the last of 10 during the early portion of the race. Those are encouraging efforts, but Saturday will present some new challenges. He is switching off Lasix for the first time while and has largely run the same BSF in every race as his three efforts have yielded 78, 81, and 79. He needs to get faster and will most likely need to overcome the inherent track bias at Monmouth Park, which is a speed-favoring track. His off-the-pace running style in a short field without a blistering pace could put him at a disadvantage. Finally, this feels like a very modest spot to place a horse with such big expectations, though the race did come up soft, particularly if several of the cross entries fail to show up. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sees fit to stay aboard, which is a promising sign. Overall, this is a horse who feels like if he wins, he could be catapulted into much tougher spots in the next few months, but if he loses, he likely starts to work his way through his conditions and could end up being an allowance-level horse despite the lofty expectations.