Pasco Stakes Picks

Pace: The 2025 renewal of the Pasco might not feature a horse with the future of Grade 1 winner Book ‘em Danno as it did last year, but it is a competitive group that might offer the chance to beat a heavy favorite. From a pace perspective, #4 Rookie Card (3/1) should be up on the lead by himself during the early going. The question with him is distance as he lost late going 6 ½ furlongs but should have things his own way up front on Saturday. #3 Cockeyed (20/1) might provide some initial pressure as the horse went gate-to-wire last time out breaking his maiden against lesser foes but putting up reasonable fractions. Ultimately, most of the field is content to track or stalk the early pace, which means that jockey Junior Alvarado might be able to shake loose up front and let Rookie Card get comfortable before being set down at the top of the stretch.

#4 Rookie Card (3/1) – While he has only faced maidens, trainer Danny Gargan has a nice horse in the form of the son of Adios Charlie. The Florida bred might have a modest pedigree, but it is notable when a sire who stands for $3,000 has an offspring who sells for $165,000. This horse has made an impression since debut where he just barely got nabbed at the wire by Tip Top Thomas who went on to finish second to Chance McPatrick in the Champagne (G1). Finishing third that day was Chad Brown’s Keewaydin who broke his maiden next time out and the fourth-place finisher was Bill Mott’s Sovereignty who went on to win the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs and appears to have a very big future in the Kentucky Derby picture this year. After coming out of such a productive race, he again got caught at the wire in his next start by a well-spotted Brad Cox runner Comes a Time. He finally broke his maiden in his third start going to the lead and pulling away to win by five lengths over a field that included Treaty of Rome who just finished a very close second in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last weekend at Gulfstream Park. Therefore, despite only facing maiden company, you could argue he has faced the best competition in the field. On Saturday, he has a clear pace advantage and jockey Junior Alvarado should send and ration out the early fractions. The only question is whether he can get the seven-furlong distance, but it was encouraging to see his conditioning improve in each of his three starts and now he heads to a track that is notoriously speed-favoring on big days.

#6 Owen Almighty (4/5) – The odds-on favorite is deserving of that respect after winning the Juvenile at Ellis Park and finishing second to Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois (G3) last time out. The son of Speightstown draws well to the outside the suits his tracking running style where he can slide over to sit just off the pace down the backstretch for jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. who is coming up from Gulfstream Park for the day. From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, he has improved each time out, though the gains have been incremental topping out at an 86 last time out. He is coming off a four-month layoff but has been training fantastically for Brian Lynch including a 47.3 second four-furlong gate work that was third of 51 on January 4. He might just be that good and rolls to an easy win, but my concern is that he has not beaten much in the past. The field in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis Park has yet to produce a horse that won a subsequent race and then we saw Jonathan’s Way flop in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) after beating Owen Almighty in the Iroquois (G3). To be fair, we have seen some other runners from that Iroquois (G3) field come back to run well like Sandman, Authentic Strike, and Magnitude. The former $350,000 purchase has the highest price tag in the field and could serve notice about being a serious sprinter for later this year at Saratoga or in the Pat Day Mile (G2). It is hard to play against him, but he is at a price where you either must single or play against him.

#5 Naughty Rascal (5/2) – The son of Rogueish is perhaps the most accomplished horse in the field as he is a two-time stakes winner having won once sprinting on the dirt and another one going long on the turf. That sort of versatility makes you take notice even if the Beyer Speed Figures are a little below par for this level of competition. His last race was his best finishing second in the Inaugural over the main track at Tampa Bay Downs against highly regarded Donut God. He looked strong that day and closed ground late to make you think he will appreciate the stretch out. My only hesitation, and the reason I have him third, is because he should sit a nearly identical trip to Owen Almighty, and I am not sure that he is a better horse than the morning line favorite. If all things are equal and the two horses sit nearly identical trips, then I expect Owen Almighty to get the better of him. That said, this Florida bred has improved his figures in each start on the dirt and another modest improvement puts him potentially in the winner’s circle. He might need to be more aggressive out of the gate to sit a stalking trip next to Rookie Card simply to negate the potential advantage of Owen Almighty if they sit the same trip.

#2 Very Bold (12/1) – If there is a horse outside of the top three choices that has a chance to upset the apple cart, it is the son of Union Rags trained by Eoin Harty. The horse has the type of muddied running lines that might you think he could take a big step forward. As a rule, I deeply dislike Union Rags horses on any surface other than dirt. He is a 4% winning turf sprint sire and a 6% winning synthetic sprint sire. Why people insist on running Union Rags offspring on those surfaces is beyond me, though I do admit Very Bold has some turf/synthetic pedigree underneath. Still, at some point we all need to act like former Arizona Cardinals head coach Denny Green and say, “We are who they thought they were!” Rant aside, just scratch the synthetic and turf efforts off the running lines and you see a horse who struggled out of the gate the first time on dirt but made up a ton of ground late and managed to finish third. Next time on dirt, he broke his maiden and was able to do so in convincing fashion as he got off to a much better start. If he can get off to a clean start on Saturday and track the pace, then he is proven at the distance. While one could point to the fact his lone win came over a sloppy track, I think the main reason he won was because he got the right trip and he was on the dirt surface, even if conditions were not the best. He is a candidate to move forward and if you’re looking to include a price in an otherwise chalky ticket, he fits the bill.