Paradise Creek Stakes Picks

#5 Clock Tower (4/1) – Trainer Wesley Ward is winning 100% of his entries during the Belmont at the Big A meet. Perhaps I should stop my analysis there, but maybe we should dive into more details and not simply take the performance of four of his starters as gospel. Still, Ward’s runner Clock Tower looks like a dangerous horse in this spot, though he likely needs the lead given his previous performances. He won the Cecil B. DeMille (G2) at Del Mar back in December in gate-to-wire fashion over Scipio who followed that up with two straight victories including a stakes win of his own. What is notable is that the race was at a mile and Ward is now cutting this one back to six furlongs. If you look at this horse’s entire career, he makes a ton of sense. Toss the dirt efforts and assume the 1 1/16-mile races were too long and you see a horse that dominated at a mile. Can he show the same sort of early speed for Ward going shorter? I think he can. Jockey Junior Alvarado is aboard and I would imagine he will be very aggressive out of the gate and while the horse has not shown the ability to pass others to this point, he also has never been in a turf sprint where some of the frontrunners might go too fast and Alvarado could get him to relax just off the pace and pounce at the right time. He has gotten in a couple of works after his poor performance in the Transylvania (G3). If he breaks cleanly, you know he has the foundation from going longer and could provide better value for a hot trainer and jockey.

#7 Supersonic Blue (9/2) – West Coast turf horses coming to New York is typically an automatic toss for me, no matter how good they are, because of how different the turf plays here compared to California. Yet, Supersonic Blue seems like a hard horse to dismiss on that basis alone. The son of Air Force Blue is a stakes winner having taken the John Shear Stakes at Santa Anita last month going 6 ½ furlongs over the Downhill Turf course, which is typically an indication the horse could go longer, but he also broke his maiden sprinting a flat six furlongs. He has outstanding early speed and is certainly a candidate to take them gate-to-wire if he can handle the going. There has been significant rain in the New York Metro area over the last week, and the ground will be softer than what he typically sees in California. It is encouraging to see jockey Flavien Prat, who is winning at a 34% clip during this Belmont at the Big A meet, take the mount for trainer Neil Drysdale who has had success shipping California turf horses to New York over the last five years. The analysis is straightforward with this one. If he breaks and maintains his speed from California, he has the class to win.

#9 Pivotal Moment (2/1) – The morning line favorite is a logical win contender for trainer Christophe Clement as he boasts the best last out turf Beyer Speed Figure in the field (82). However, he is also facing winners for the first time having just broken his maiden last time out at Gulfstream Park back in February. The fact this horse has not been seen in over three months is slightly concerning especially since he returned to the work tab in early March and has just been working this whole time. Perhaps Clement always targeted this race, but it is interesting he did not go to anything at Keeneland or Churchill Downs, though it is possible he wanted to take his next crack here. The son of Bolt d’Oro drew exceptionally well to the outside as jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. can play the break and bring this horse from off the pace as he prefers to do. It is also notable that the big Beyer Speed Figure jump in his maiden breaking victory came with Lasix, which he is switching off for Saturday. However, over the last five years, Clement has won 33% of the time when switching last out maiden winners off Lasix in stakes races. It is a small sample size (12), but it shows that it is not something that should scare you away. From a handicapping and betting perspective, I nearly always try to beat favorites in turf sprints, but he is a horse that I would have a hard time leaving off my horizontal wagers even if I am trying to beat him as my top choice and win bet.

#4 Assertiveness (8/1) – Todd Pletcher’s $650,000 son of Into Mischief has a lofty price tag and solid pedigree to match at he is out of multiple graded stakes winner Isabella Sings who was great going long on the turf and has thrown some nice foals, such as stakes winner Otello. The horse debuted in a race taken off the grass last summer at Saratoga but then went to the bench for the next seven months and came back to break his maiden going a mile on the grass at Gulfstream Park. Pletcher stepped the horse up to face first-level allowance company in his next start and while briefly making the lead, he ultimately faded to third when going two turns. The horse has good speed going long and should still be in the early mix cutting back, while keeping Hall of Famer John Velazquez on the mount. Now Pletcher cuts the horse back to six furlongs and puts him against stakes company, which is a move he is 0-10 doing over the last five years and he is only 3-41 (7%) during that time cutting back on the turf at all levels. This is a big reason why I have the horse fourth and do not see him as a strong win contender but as a way of potentially improving the payout on your trifectas and vertical wagers. For a horse with this type of price tag and pedigree, turf sprints are often the last attempt to get value out of the runner before dropping them in class. It is not to say he is incapable of running well in this spot, but just that for a trainer such as Pletcher this is often the final option rather than trainers like Wesley Ward or George Weaver who excel and thrive finding turf sprinters.