Pacific Classic Stakes Picks

Analysis: The showdown in Saturday’s Pacific Classic (G1) is one of the more anticipated races of the year. You have three heavy hitters in the form of #4 Nysos (8/5), #6 Journalism (9/5), and #1 Fierceness (3/1) who have amassed impressive records while displaying dazzling talent. My strongest opinion in the race is who I will toss from the “Big Three” as I believe Fierceness drew poorly on the inside rail. He is a horse that does not like horses around him and there will be plenty of additional speed in the race to keep him company near the front. He has repeatedly shown he prefers to be on the outside of horses and when he is pressed on the outside or fails to strike the front, he does not put in his best effort. Additionally, his Whitney performance was particularly poor given that he and Highland Falls were running roughly the same trip while running similar early fractions. Highland Falls kept on for a strong runner-up finish to Sierra Leone while Fierceness faded badly to fifth. I think it is entirely possible that we have seen the best of Fierceness toward the tail end of his three-year-old campaign and in his record-breaking Alysheba (G2) effort back in the Spring at Churchill Downs. He will have to show he can do something he has not done before, which is win from an inside post position while going 1 ¼ miles.

Due to the amount of early speed horses signed on in the race, it appears to set up nicely for Journalism who has the versatility to sit further off the pace and come with a late run. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Preakness (G1), and Haskell (G1) has only tasted defeated twice this year and both times were to three-year-old superhorse Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). Sovereignty just put on a show for the fans at Saratoga last week when he won the Travers (G1) by 10 lengths over an admittedly inferior field but ran the third fastest Travers in history just a tick over two minutes while being assigned a 115 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). Journalism has never been able to compare to Sovereignty while going 1 ¼ miles, but he also proved to be better than everyone else he ran against at the distance including highly regarded Baeza who finished third in both Classic races. It is fair to wonder whether Journalism is best at nine or ten furlongs given that Sovereignty went by time in the stretch in both showdowns, but that might be more of a reflection of Sovereignty’s specialness rather than a deficiency from Journalism. I’ve not been the biggest fan of the rides jockey Umberto Rispoli has given to this son of Curlin as he has routinely shown hesitation and put the horse into bad spots where he made it more difficult on him than it should have been. His last race in the Haskell (G1) was a tough test as he ran down Gosger and Goal Oriented at the wire for the win but clearly did not like the track that day at Monmouth Park. A similar concern could arise on Saturday as he has not raced at Del Mar before, but he has worked over the track the last three times out and recorded a strong series of morning workouts. Journalism is a specimen of a horse, and his pedigree would suggest he can get the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Pacific Classic. There is plenty of speed signed on for Saturday, which should allow Rispoli to sit behind the early pacesetters and make a move on the turn. Rispoli would be wise to keep Nysos in his sites to prevent that horse from getting the jump. The one ace up the sleeve for Journalism is that he is carrying six fewer pounds than the rest of the field due to his age. While I am not one to fret over a couple of pounds difference, I do believe six pounds over a Classic distance could be an influential factor.

Meanwhile, there is Nysos. A horse that has only lost once in his six-race career, which was in his first race back from a 15-month layoff in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) by a nose to Mindframe who has proven to be one of the best older horses in training. Otherwise, Nysos has won and won with authority. He has a versatile running style in that he can go to the lead or track from off the pace. In the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) he even showed he can come from further back, though that seems unlikely on Saturday as the horse should assert himself to be tracking the pace of the frontrunners in the early going. The biggest, and perhaps only, question with Nysos is distance. As a two-year-old his two efforts were sprinting, and his lone three-year-old race was a two-turn mile in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). When Baffert brought him back at four, he ran in back-to-back seven-furlong sprints before stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the San Diego Handicap (G2) last time out. Yes, he won that race with ease while earning a strong BSF, but now he is stretching out an additional 3/16 miles while facing a significantly stronger field than last time. His pedigree should support the distance, but it is hardly a slam dunk. While I love Nyquist as a sire, he is not the type of stallion to move his offspring forward on distance, as his offspring are only 5-60 (8%) going 1 ¼ miles or longer. Now, Nysos is out of a Bernardini mare, which typically infuses some additional distance, but I do wonder whether it’s enough to hold off a horse like Journalism who has great distance pedigree and who will be carrying less weight.

Finally, #2 Midnight Mammoth (12/1) could be an interesting price to include in your vertical wagers. The well-traveled horse for trainer Armando Ayuso has been a consistent performer at lower levels during most of his career but has recently started running well against stakes company. He won the Cougar II (G3) last year at Del Mark and then got back into form in his last two races winning an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita in April and then finished second to Skippylongstocking in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) going 1 ¼ miles at The Great Race Place. He does not run at Del Mar often but has shown the ability to get the distance and should be stalking/pressing Fierceness the entire way around from his #2 post position. I do not think he is talented enough to pull off this upset coming off the bench, but he’s shown he can handle the track and 10 furlongs, which are big positives for a horse that will be a big price.

How I’m playing it: In my opinion, this is a two-horse race between Nysos and Journalism. Depending on how the rest of the Late P5 sequence plays out, you may need to pick your poison and single one or the other. I give a slight edge to Journalism, who gets six fewer pounds to carry due to only being three years old, in large part because there is a fair amount of speed in the race and he should sit a nice trip behind the early pace. Additionally, this will be the first race since the Santa Anita Derby (G1) where he does not have to ship across the country for a race as he will get a chance to race over the surface at Del Mar for the first time in preparation for November’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). That said, omitting Nysos from your ticket seems foolhardy given trainer Bob Baffert has him in top form and he has done little wrong since coming back from a lengthy layoff. The 10-furlong distance is a question, but he has passed every other test thrown his way to this point.